Wolfe Research estimates Tesla will deliver 420,000 vehicles globally in the second quarter — approximately 10% above the year-ago period and ahead of the current consensus of around 400,000 units.
In a new note published on Wednesday, the analyst Emmanuel Rosner projected second-quarter automotive gross margins (excluding regulatory credits) in the low-18% range, up from 17.7% in the first quarter (excluding one-time warranty true-ups).
Rosner sees earnings per share of approximately $0.50 to $0.52, ahead of the $0.45 consensus.
Wolfe reiterated a Peerperform rating on the company’s stock. The firm does not assign a price target under this rating.
Shares closed at $404.66 on Tuesday, down approximately 10% year to date. As of press time, Tesla was trading nearly flat at $402.
Near-Term Setup
Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in the second quarter of 2025, a period during which deliveries fell 13% year over year amid negative sentiment tied to Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s political activities and the recent production start of the refreshed Model Y.
A 420,000-unit result would mark the strongest quarterly delivery figure since the third quarter of 2025, when Tesla moved 497,099 vehicles in a period boosted by pull-forward demand ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 US federal EV tax credit.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter, missing the consensus estimate of 365,645 units.
Despite the constructive near-term setup, Rosner cautioned that Tesla‘s core businesses “represent only a small piece of the company’s valuation.”
“The much bigger part, in our view, is tied to confidence around their longer-term (and more significant) initiatives across Robotaxi, Humanoids, and ancillary AI services,” Rosner wrote, adding that “ramp curves are shallower than previously expected, most notably in robotaxi.”
Growing Wall Street Consensus
Wolfe’s delivery forecast add to a growing cluster of above-consensus forecasts heading into Tesla‘s second-quarter delivery report, expected in early July.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney raised his own estimate to 420,000 from 405,000 on Tuesday, citing regional sales data that point to a strong rebound in Europe and steady growth in China.
European registration data through May showed a roughly 85% to 90% year-over-year increase, according to Delaney, though he noted the surge is partly due to an unusually weak comparison period.
US deliveries tracked down mid-teens year over year through May, per Motor Intelligence data.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy also lifted his outlook to 418,000 units on European momentum and China recovery.
GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson projects 426,017 — attributing strength mainly to seasonal tailwinds and first-quarter inventory clearance rather than demand re-acceleration.
Evercore sees deliveries near 400,000, viewing recent Model Y price increases across European markets as a sign of demand stabilization.
Robotaxi Delays
Rosner flagged intensifying competition and slower-than-expected deployment as the central risks to Tesla‘s long-term valuation thesis.
The company is likely to miss its first-half deployment targets for the Robotaxi service, the analyst wrote.
Tesla launched unsupervised rides in Dallas and Houston in April, expanding beyond its initial Austin and San Francisco Bay Area markets.
The fleet had grown to 25 driverless vehicles across all operating cities in late April. As of Wednesday, the total reached 33 unsupervised models.
Five additional markets — Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas — remain on the seven-city first-half 2026 roadmap outlined in the company’s Q4 2025 shareholder deck, with fewer than two weeks left in the period.
Rosner cited Waymo’s planned expansion into more than 20 cities this year as a direct competitive threat.
Alphabet’s autonomous driving unit now delivers over 500,000 paid rides per week across eleven US cities and targets one million by year-end.
Tesla reported nearly 700,000 cumulative paid Robotaxi rides as of late January — a fraction of Waymo’s weekly run rate.
Mobileye’s target of deploying 100 robotaxis by 2027 and accelerating humanoid production from Figure AI and Boston Dynamics were also named as competitive pressures.
“Tesla needs to deliver robotaxi and Optimus proof points for the shares to find momentum, especially as competitors continue to ramp-up,” Rosner wrote.
SpaceX Merger
Rosner noted that Tesla shares have continued to hold up even as investor attention gravitates toward SpaceX, which listed publicly under the ticker SPCX on June 12 in the largest initial public offering in market history.
According to the analyst, “Tesla stock has continued to hold up well even as investors gravitate towards SpaceX, with the market assuming increasing likelihood of an eventual TSLA/SPCX merger, which provides downside support.”
Any such deal would likely not happen until mid-2027 at the earliest, Rosner added — consistent with his June 9 note, in which he warned Tesla shares were “in a tricky spot” ahead of the SpaceX debut.
Anticipation of a tie-up has become central to a sizable subset of Tesla investors, with some now treating it as their primary reason for owning the stock.
Wedbush Securities has pegged the probability of a 2027 merger at over 80%, framing the joint Terafab chip facility as a first step toward combining the two Elon Musk-led companies.
Rosner has taken a more measured stance, flagging “clear potential challenges” around any combination.
Margins and Earnings
In his May 6 note following Tesla’s first-quarter results, Rosner raised his full-year 2026 earnings-per-share estimate to $1.89 from $1.62, partly reflecting a first-quarter beat on automotive profitability.
Adjusted first-quarter automotive gross margins excluding credits came in at 17.5% — well above his prior estimate of 15.2% — even as deliveries fell roughly 60,000 units sequentially and the elimination of the upfront Full Self-Driving purchase option created an estimated 100-basis-point headwind.
Rosner trimmed his 2027 estimate to $2.04 from $2.17 in the same note, citing higher depreciation and operating expenses.
At the time, the figure sat well below the consensus of $2.46.
Several factors underpin the margin improvement Rosner expects through 2026, including a slight delivery increase, as the analyst projected roughly 1.69 million units for the full year, up approximately 3% year over year.
Strong pricing and mix and favorable currency tailwinds and an estimated $400 million in gross profit for the full year contribute alongside continued growth in FSD subscriptions.
Full Self-Driving subscriptions rose 16% sequentially and 51% year over year in the first quarter, and Rosner’s forecast assumes a roughly 50% year-over-year increase in 2026, reaching 1.7 million subscriptions and 16% global penetration.
The company is expected to report second-quarter delivery figures in early July.
