Goldman Sachs’ analyst Mark Delaney raised on Tuesday the firm’s second-quarter delivery estimate for Tesla, noting that the company’s volumes are “likely tracking ahead of consensus.”
In a new note — obtained by PriceTarget — the analyst explained the new outlook is based on regional sales data, which points to a strong rebound in Europe and steady growth in China.
“We believe that Tesla‘s 2Q26 vehicle deliveries are likely tracking ahead of consensus (at 400K per Visible Alpha), and we raise our forecast to 420K from 405K,” Delaney wrote.
The revised estimate would represent a roughly 9.3% increase from the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025 — a period during which the company’s deliveries fell 13% year over year.
European Growth
Goldman’s upgraded forecast is based on “monthly and/or weekly sales datapoints for key regions,” which include China, the US, and Europe.
According to Mark Delaney, Europe is “in particular showing strong yoy growth,” with registration data through May pointed to the strongest performance.
“European registration data QTD [quarter to date] through May shows a ~85-90% yoy increase, and registrations from countries with June daily data available indicates a strong start to June (with MTD [month to date] data up ~20% in those countries),” the analyst wrote.
He cautioned, however, that the surge is partly due to an unusually weak comparison period.
In the second quarter of 2025, Tesla’s deliveries fell 29% year over year as the company faced negative sentiment linked to Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s political activities.
Tesla was also recovering from a temporary production halt of its Model Y SUV, which occurred while the company transitioned to the refreshed version of its best-selling model.
European registrations for Tesla began recovering earlier this year, with April data showing a 46.5% year-over-year increase after months of steep declines.
China’s Recovery
China showed more modest growth, as “CPCA data through May indicates high single digit yoy growth,” the analyst wrote.
Data released last week showed Tesla’s retail sales in the country jumped 22.5% year over year in May to 47,281 vehicles, snapping a two-month run of declines.
Financing incentives and the continued appeal of the refreshed Model Y and Model 3 have aided the broader recovery.
Delaney added that “some other APAC countries (e.g. Korea and Australia) have had strong sales data as well, both on a yoy and qoq basis through May.”
US Sales Decline
While the Elon Musk-led company has seen sales recovering overseas, domestic numbers continue to show year-over-year declines.
“Through May, QTD deliveries are tracking down mid-teens yoy per Motor Intelligence,” Delaney wrote, referencing the data provider whose estimates serve as the industry benchmark for US sales tracking.
Motor Intelligence data showed Tesla’s US sales fell 12.1% year over year in May, marking the eighth consecutive month of domestic decline.
From January through May, Tesla sold 229,010 vehicles in the US, a 13.6% drop from the year-earlier period.
Valuation
The analyst reiterated a Neutral rating on the stock, with a price target of $375 — which implies a downside of approximately 8.8% from Tuesday’s closing price of $411.15.
The $375 price target sits well below Tesla‘s current trading level, marking one of the wider gaps between the firm’s target and the stock price in recent months.
Goldman’s price target on Tesla has moved through several cycles over the past year, tracking shifts in the automaker’s delivery trajectory, capital expenditure plans, and autonomous driving progress.
After reaching a yearly low of $214.25 in April 2025, Tesla shares rallied through the summer and into the fall. The stock traded consistently over $300 by June and surged above $400 by mid-September.
Goldman raised its price target on Tesla (to $395) on September 18, though shares had already climbed to around $417 — the first time the target trailed the stock.
The firm lifted its target on the automaker again in October — to $425 — just below the stock price of roughly $430 at the time, after Tesla reported record third-quarter deliveries of 497,099 vehicles.
Following Tesla‘s fourth-quarter earnings on January 29, Goldman lowered the target to $405, citing expectations for negative free cash flow in 2026 as capital expenditures were set to more than double to over $20 billion.
Delivery Context
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter of 2026, missing the consensus estimate of 365,645 units.
Production reached 408,386 vehicles during the quarter, adding over 50,000 units to inventory.
Full-year 2025 deliveries totaled approximately 1.636 million vehicles, a decline from 2024 — and the second year in a row where deliveries were below the prior year.
Goldman’s 420,000-unit estimate for the second quarter would represent the highest quarterly delivery figure since that third-quarter 2025 peak, when Tesla moved 497,099 vehicles in a period boosted by pull-forward demand ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 US federal EV tax credit.
A figure near Goldman’s estimate would also mark a sequential improvement from the first quarter’s 358,023 units, consistent with the auto industry’s pattern of weak first months of the year.
Barclays’ Dan Levy also lifted his outlook to 418,000 units on European momentum and China recovery earlier this week.
GLJ Research’s Gordon Johnson projects 426,017 units — attributing it mainly to seasonal tailwinds and Q1 inventory clearance rather than demand re-acceleration.
Evercore sees deliveries near 400,000, seeing recent Model Y price increases as a sign of demand stabilization amid higher gasoline prices.
Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter delivery figures in early July.
