Wolfe Research has reiterated a Peerperform rating on Tesla warning that the company’s shares “are in a tricky spot” days before the initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX
Rosner opened with a characterization that has followed the company for years.
Tesla has “long been a catalyst-driven stock,” he wrote, and the next catalyst on the horizon is a potential merger with SpaceX.
The stock closed at $408.95 on Monday and was trading 0.7% higher on Tuesday’s pre-market session at $411.81.
SpaceX is set to list publicly later in the week under the ticker SPCX, a debut widely expected to rank among the largest in market history.
Anticipation of a tie-up between the two Elon Musk-led companies has become central to a sizable subset of Tesla investors, according to Rosner, with some now treating it as their primary reason for holding the stock.
He cautioned that the mechanics of any deal point to a long wait.
Completion of such a merger is unlikely before mid-2027 at the earliest, Rosner wrote, even setting aside what he called clear potential challenges around combining the businesses.
That gap between investor enthusiasm and any realistic closing date is part of what leaves the shares stranded.
For years, the stock has swung on milestones rather than quarterly results, from delivery records to product unveilings, and Rosner’s note treats the looming SpaceX listing as the latest entry in that long sequence.
Solid Core, Small Slice of the Value
Rosner was unambiguous that Tesla‘s operating businesses are holding up well.
Auto demand looks solid, pricing has moved higher, and the energy backlog keeps growing, he wrote, pointing to the core segments of autos, energy, charging and service.
Pricing increases and a deepening energy order book were the specific bright spots he flagged, evidence that the underlying company is not the source of the problem.
That strength, though, barely moves the needle on how the market values the company.
Those businesses “represent a small piece of valuation,” Rosner wrote, a line that captures why strong quarterly execution has not translated into a rising share price.
The disconnect is the heart of his cautious framing.
Investors, in his reading, are not paying for the cars and Megapacks the company sells today.
Robotaxi and Optimus
The much larger share of Tesla‘s valuation, in Rosner’s view, rests on confidence in its longer-term and more significant projects across robotaxi, humanoid robots and ancillary AI services.
Ramp curves are “shallower than previously expected,” Rosner wrote, singling out the robotaxi operation as the clearest example.
Earlier this year, the analyst modeled robotaxi revenue reaching as high as $250 billion by 2035, while cautioning that the outcome carries low visibility.
His conclusion on Tuesday placed the burden squarely on delivery.
Tesla “needs to deliver robotaxi and Optimus proof points” for the shares to find momentum, Rosner wrote, a task he cast as more pressing as rivals continue to scale their own autonomy and robotics efforts.
Those rivals now include autonomous-driving operators steadily expanding their commercial fleets, a backdrop that, in Rosner’s view, shortens the window for Tesla to prove its own service can scale.
Without those proof points, he argued, the narrative alone is no longer enough to move the stock.
What the Bulls Still Hold On To
Rosner acknowledged the case that keeps long-term holders engaged.
Bulls will keep their attention on the long view, he wrote, an argument he has previously called compelling as Tesla drives down its robotaxi cost per mile and pushes Optimus toward scale.
The looming SpaceX listing may also cushion any near-term weakness.
Market expectations around a possible merger could provide downside support, Rosner wrote, even with the deal itself years away.
Momentum, in his telling, still hinges on hard evidence rather than story.
His stance leaves Wolfe firmly on the fence at a moment when other desks have started to move.
JPMorgan lifted the stock to Neutral from Underweight last week, raising its target to $475, while Erste Group upgraded to Hold from Sell on the same day, leaving Rosner’s Peerperform squarely in the middle of a shifting debate.
Where the Stock Stands
Tesla‘s recent close left the stock down 9% so far in 2026, Rosner noted, trailing a broader S&P 500 that has gained 8% over the same stretch.
Tesla has fared marginally better than Rivian, which is down 15% year to date.
Legacy automakers have outrun all of them, with General Motors up 3% and Ford up 14%, according to the note.
The weekly chart underscores how far the stock sits from its highs.
Tesla shares changed hands as high as $412.94 and as low as $394.72 during the week, on volume of roughly 50.3 million, and remain well below the $498.83 peak set earlier in the rally.
Even after the pullback, the stock trades at nearly three times its 2024 low near $138.80.
