Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard released a new research note on Monday, announcing that the firm expects Tesla to report 397,414 vehicles delivered in the second quarter of the year.
In the note — obtained by PriceTarget — Sheppard described the figure as conservative, noting that it sits below the sell-side compiled consensus of 406,024 units, published by the company last week.
The analyst wrote that the Elon Musk-led company “recently reaffirmed that its Cybercab, Tesla Semi and Megapack 3 all remain on track for volume production this year,” adding that Cantor views those programs as “material catalysts.”
“More importantly, we continue to expect FY26 to be a transformational year for the company as it transitions into autonomy, AI, robotics, and chips,” Sheppard said.
The below-consensus delivery call paired with one of the highest price targets among major banks — at $510 — underscores Cantor’s thesis that near-term vehicle volumes are increasingly secondary to the longer-term catalysts the firm sees ahead in autonomy, energy storage, and robotics.
Delivery Estimate
Sheppard’s 397,414-unit forecast falls roughly 3% below the median estimate of 406,024 from the 22 analysts feeding Tesla‘s company-published delivery consensus.
Of those, analysts project 392,625 Model 3 and Model Y deliveries and 12,978 from other models — which include the Cybertruck and the last units of the Model S and Model X produced.
On the energy side, Sheppard expects Tesla to deploy 15.7 GWh of energy storage products in the second quarter, above the company-compiled consensus of 13.8 GWh.
Energy storage deployments totaled 8.8 GWh in the first quarter, well below the consensus of 14.4 GWh at the time, and 9.6 GWh in the second quarter of 2025.
Where Cantor Sits Among Peers
Cantor’s delivery estimate lands on the more conservative end of Wall Street’s range heading into the July 2 report date — a notable contrast given the firm carries one of the highest price targets among banks that have recently updated their forecasts.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney, who holds a $375 target and a Neutral rating on the stock, raised the firm’s delivery forecast to approximately 420,000 units from 405,000.
The analyst cited regional sales data showing a strong rebound in Europe and steady growth in China.
Morgan Stanley lifted its estimate to 413,000 from 373,000, with analyst Andrew Percoco pointing to recovering demand in Europe and China.
The bank kept its $415 price target and Equalweight rating.
RBC Capital projects approximately 405,000 deliveries, while Baird estimates 392,900.
Barclays expects an above-consensus result but maintains a Hold rating with a $360 target, while Visible Alpha’s consensus sits near 400,000 units.
Europe is shaping up as the swing factor.
Registration data through May showed Tesla‘s European volumes running approximately 85% to 90% above the year-ago period, albeit off a weak base — the second quarter of 2025 saw a roughly 29% decline in the region.
Delivery and Production
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter of 2026, missing the consensus estimate of 365,645 units.
Production reached 408,386 vehicles during the quarter, creating a gap of more than 50,000 vehicles between output and deliveries — a buildup that could support higher second-quarter shipments as the company works through accumulated inventory.
Cantor’s 397,414-unit call would represent a 3.5% increase from the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2025 — a period marked by a 13% year-over-year decline.
A figure at or near Cantor’s estimate would give Tesla two consecutive quarters of year-over-year delivery growth for the first time since the third quarter of 2025, when the company posted a record 497,099 units ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
Full-year 2025 deliveries totaled approximately 1.636 million vehicles, a decline from 2024’s 1,789,226 units and the second consecutive year of falling sales.
Tesla‘s company-compiled consensus projects full-year 2026 deliveries of over 1.6 million vehicles, which would represent a return to year-over-year growth.
Estimates continue rising to 1.8 million vehicles in 2027 and over 2.0 million in 2028.
Catalysts Beyond Deliveries
Cantor’s bullish thesis rests heavily on Tesla‘s push into autonomy and robotics — the same areas the firm has consistently highlighted as drivers of long-term value.
On the robotics front, Sheppard noted that Tesla disclosed during the first quarter that its first-generation Optimus production line is being installed in Fremont, California, replacing the discontinued Model S and Model X lines.
Management targets annual production capacity of one million Optimus robots from that facility.
A second-generation line is under preparation at Gigafactory Texas, targeting long-term annual capacity of 10 million units.
Sheppard expects production of the Optimus Gen 3 to ramp in Fremont in late July or August 2026, with the higher-volume Texas factory targeting a start of production in the summer of 2027.
Cantor models initial Optimus deliveries beginning in the third quarter of 2027 at an average selling price near $100,000 — well above the approximately $20,000 management has previously targeted at scale.
The firm estimates production volumes of 2,500 units in fiscal 2027, 6,000 in fiscal 2028, and 18,000 in fiscal 2029, with initial shipments directed at commercial applications before eventually becoming available for personal consumers.
Among the upcoming catalysts Sheppard listed are the expansion of Tesla‘s Robotaxi service in the first half of 2026, a broader rollout of FSD (supervised) in China in the second half of the year and FSD expansion into Europe pending regulatory approval.
The analyst also flagged the rollout of the Cybercab in the second half, the Tesla Roadster unveil expected in the third quarter, Semi truck start of production, and initial Optimus deliveries in the second half of 2027.
Stock Performance
Cantor’s $510 price target implies approximately 34% upside from Tesla‘s closing price of $379.71 last Friday.
The stock reached its all-time high of $498.83 on December 22, 2025, and sits about 24% off that peak.
Tesla shares shed more than $100 in the first two months of 2026 amid an escalation of NHTSA’s probe into FSD, the first-quarter delivery miss, and broader market pressure from the Middle East conflict.
Cantor’s price target on Tesla has moved through several stages over the past year.
The firm upgraded the stock at $225 in March 2025 and subsequently raised the target to $425 in May 2025, citing upcoming product launches and Robotaxi expansion.
Ahead of the third-quarter 2025 earnings, the firm held at $355, before lifting the target 43.7% to $510 after Tesla reported record deliveries of 497,099 vehicles and $28.1 billion in revenue in the third quarter.
Sheppard has maintained the $510 target since, including ahead of fourth-quarter and first-quarter 2026 results.
Q1 Financial Context
Additionally, Sheppard pointed to the first quarter as evidence of improving financial momentum.
Tesla posted a top-line, gross-margin, and bottom-line beat in the period.
The analyst highlighted first-quarter free cash flow of $1,444 million as “particularly encouraging,” calling it a “material beat” relative to the consensus expectation of negative $1,780 million.
The cash flow result was tempered by a significant revision to capital spending.
On its first-quarter call, Tesla disclosed a revised fiscal 2026 capex guide of more than $25 billion, up from a prior target of $20 billion — what Sheppard described as “a material step-up” from the approximately $8.5 billion spent in fiscal 2025.
The company now expects negative free cash flow for the rest of 2026.
Tesla is scheduled to report second-quarter delivery and energy deployment figures on July 2.
The company will release its full second-quarter financial results after market close in late July.
