Tesla drew a more upbeat call from Morgan Stanley, which raised its estimate for the company’s second-quarter deliveries to 413,000 vehicles from 373,000, citing recovering demand in Europe and China.
Analyst Andrew Percoco kept the bank’s price target at $415 and its Equal-weight rating, treating the higher volume as a read on improving regional sales rather than a change to his longer-term thesis.
The revised figure lands days before Tesla reports official second-quarter deliveries on July 2.
Adding about 40,000 vehicles to the prior estimate, the upgrade reflects monthly sales data that has turned firmer across two of the company’s largest overseas markets.
A 413,000 result would mark a 7.5% rise from the 384,122 vehicles Tesla delivered in the same period of 2025, and a gain of roughly 15% from the first quarter of 2026.
Morgan Stanley had grown more cautious earlier in the year, after Tesla missed delivery expectations in each of the past two quarters.
Europe and China Drive the Upgrade
Percoco pointed to Europe as the clearest sign of recovery, with registrations running well above year-earlier levels and April up about 47% from a year before.
That rebound follows a weak 2025, when European sales slumped and left an easy comparison base for this year.
Across the region, rival estimates have echoed the trend, with Goldman Sachs citing European registration data up 85% to 90% from a year earlier through May.
April marked another month of recovery in a market that ranked among Tesla‘s weakest a year earlier.
Buyers have returned to a refreshed Model Y, while the low base from last year’s brand backlash has amplified the year-over-year gains.
To sustain the momentum, Tesla has leaned on incentives such as free fast-charging for some European buyers.
China improved as well, where domestic sales climbed about 23% from a year earlier in May and 82% from April, ending a two-month run of annual declines.
Shanghai’s output matters beyond China, since the plant supplies much of Tesla‘s export volume alongside domestic sales.
A sequential jump that large pointed to a market steadying after a soft start, when price competition and an aging lineup weighed on demand.
The recovery, Percoco wrote, suggested demand “may be stabilizing after a softer start to the year.”
Registration Data Backs the Read
Official figures support the more bullish stance.
Tesla registered 28,610 vehicles in Europe in May, up 107.9% from a year earlier and a fourth straight month of growth, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association reported on June 23.
Year-to-date registrations through May reached 118,068, up 57.2% on the same span of 2025.
April had already shown the turn, with regional registrations climbing about 46% from a year earlier.
That European rebound has outpaced a market growing far more slowly, lifting its share even as Chinese rivals expand.
June figures are not yet official and are due in early July, leaving daily trackers as the only live gauge.
Roland Pircher, who tracks national registration data as piloly on X, said European sales were running at 2024 levels and on course for a possible record year.
Where 413,000 Sits
Morgan Stanley’s new number runs above the roughly 400,000-vehicle consensus tracked by Visible Alpha.
Other banks have clustered nearby, with Baird at 392,900, UBS and RBC Capital at 405,000, Goldman Sachs at 420,000 and the bearish GLJ Research at 426,000.
Visible Alpha‘s consensus has crept higher through June as bank after bank lifted second-quarter numbers on the stronger regional reads.
The spread from Baird’s cautious read to GLJ’s high mark exceeds 33,000 vehicles, a reminder of how thin the regional data can be.
Tesla produced 408,386 vehicles in the first quarter but delivered only 358,023, leaving an inventory cushion that could support second-quarter handovers.
Those deliveries fell short of the 368,903 Wall Street expected and the 365,645 the company had guided to, the second straight quarter of softer-than-expected volume.
A Robotaxi-First Thesis
For Morgan Stanley, vehicle volumes matter less than autonomy.
Percoco, who took over Tesla coverage after Adam Jonas moved to a broader role in 2025, has repeatedly cast the scaling of an unsupervised robotaxi fleet as the most important driver of the stock.
He has pegged the robotaxi cost per mile near $0.81, well below estimates for Waymo, and expects it to fall as production scales.
Tesla launched its first paid robotaxi rides in Austin in 2025 and has been widening the service to more US cities.
The unchanged $415 target reflects that stance, holding firm even as the delivery estimate rose.
Autonomy and robotics make up the bulk of the bank’s target, with the car business treated as a smaller piece.
Morgan Stanley still models about 1.6 million Tesla deliveries for the full year, a slight decline from 2025, with growth expected to resume later in the decade.
New models, including a stretched Model YL, underpin that forecast for a later rebound.
