Tesla shares could see more upside in the coming quarters as the EV maker moves closer to launching key new products and CEO Elon Musk is now allocating more time to the company, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard stated on Monday.
In a new research note, Sheppard reiterated his Overweight rating on the stock, which has surged more than 55% since the firm upgraded it at $225 in March.
Despite being down 13% year-to-date, Tesla shares have doubled over the past 12 months.
“With shares currently trading at ~$350, we remain bullish ahead of several material near-term potential catalysts,” he wrote.
Among the catalysts cited in the note are the planned unveiling of Tesla’s robotaxi in Texas next month, and the introduction of the affordable model in the first half of 2025.
“We expect initial price of ~$30,000 inclusive of tax credit,” Sheppard said, adding that the model could be “timely given the likely negative impact to vehicle prices due to tariff implementation and the likely removal of the tax credit.”
The analyst said Cantor is “encouraged” by Elon Musk’s shift in focus back toward Tesla. “We are also encouraged by Musk’s comments on the Q1 call, that his ‘time at DOGE will be significantly reduced’ starting in May, and that as a result, he plans to allocate more time to Tesla.”
Cantor sees further upside from the global expansion of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software. “Other key material catalysts include: rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (we expect 1H25, pending regulatory approval),” Sheppard wrote.
Looking further ahead, Sheppard pointed to upcoming product and technology introductions including the humanoid robot Optimus and the Semi truck.
“High volume production of Optimus Bot (2026E), initial deliveries of Optimus to customers (we expect 2027E), and introduction of the Semi Truck (we expect SOP in 2026 and for TSLA to enter the self-driving trucking industry),” were all cited as longer-term growth drivers.
Sheppard also said Tesla remains well-positioned to global trade tensions with its supply chain localized.
“We continue to believe Tesla is better-positioned (relative to other OEMs) to mitigate the impact from tariffs, with global manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Germany, and China (given domestic sourcing and high degree of vertical integration),” he wrote.
Despite the bullish outlook, the analyst named the potential removal of the EV Tax Credit expected to happen between late this year and 2026.
“We expect some near-term headwinds due to macro conditions, tariffs, Musk’s polarizing politics, and the likely removal of the EV Tax Credit (we expect in 4Q25/2026),” he said.
In the near term, investors should also watch for updated guidance. “Next quarter, management expects to revise its 2025 automotive growth target (currently to ‘return to growth’) and/or its Energy Storage outlook of >50% YoY (grew >100% in FY24),” the note said.
Cantor continues to see long-term upside from Tesla’s growing ecosystem. “Overall we continue to see future revenue upside from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots to be fundamental to TSLA’s thesis over the long term,” Sheppard concluded.
US stock futures fell on Monday after Moody’s downgraded the country’s sovereign credit rating, citing mounting concerns over Washington’s $36 trillion debt load and persistent fiscal deficits.
Tesla shares fell 4% to $336 on early Monday.
