Tesla will report its first-quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday after the market closes, with the management call scheduled for 4:30 p.m. CT.
Investors have been anticipating the report, focusing on the Robotaxi rollout, FSD expansion into Europe, and the pace of its more than $20 billion in planned AI capital expenditure.
The Elon Musk-led company delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter, below the consensus of 365,645 from 23 sell-side analysts — despite placing above the 336,381 units delivered in the same quarter a year ago, when the company was transitioning to the new version of its Model Y SUV.
Production came in at 408,386 vehicles.
Earnings Preview
Wedbush’s Dan Ives wrote that “the Street is looking for revenues of ~$22.4 billion with automotive revenue of ~$16 billion,” which does “not surprise us given the difficult demand environment across Europe and the US during the quarter.”
“EPS is expected to be $0.37 due to the significant investments the company is making across the business to better prepare for the company’s AI future,” the analyst added.
Cantor Fitzgerald’s estimates are lower.
The firm targets first quarter revenue of ~$21.1 billion, GAAP Gross Margin of ~17.5%, Non-GAAP Diluted EPS of $0.30, and free cash flow of negative $1,780 million.
Analyst Andres Sheppard expects Tesla to provide updates on the volume production timeline for the Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 — which the company said remained on track by the end of January.
Full Self-Driving
Tesla‘s Full Self-Driving software is the single most-submitted topic on Say Technologies ahead of the call, with 172 questions from shareholders.
“We believe FSD penetration could increase to 50%+ and change the financial model/margins for Tesla looking ahead,” Ives wrote.
In the latest earnings call, Tesla disclosed FSD customer penetration for the first time, reporting 1.1 million active FSD subscribers in 2025, up from 800,000 a year before.
Cantor looks for an update on the rate and guidance on future launches in Europe, China, and unsupervised FSD for personal vehicles.
The Netherlands approved Tesla’s FSD Supervised system earlier this month — the first country in Europe to grant regulatory clearance, after an 18-month testing and mapping process by the Dutch Vehicle Authority.
“While this represents just one small market, this represents an incremental step forward to navigate the extensive regulatory environment in Europe to provide the foundation for Tesla’s autonomous strategy over the coming years,” Ives wrote.
He added that “Germany, France and Italy [are] expected to approve this technology over the coming months.”
The European Commission’s Technical Committee for Motor Vehicles is scheduled to meet on May 5, where the Dutch regulator will present its conclusions on the assisted-driving software.
“Europe has been a significant headwind for Tesla with the region waiting to rebound once FSD gets the go-ahead from regulators, and this was the first step to getting FSD approval across this key geography,” the analyst added.
Sheppard views European FSD approval “as a material opportunity for Tesla to recapture market share in Europe.”
Autonomous Projects
Tesla launched its unsupervised Robotaxi service in Dallas and Houston on Saturday — four days before the earnings call — expanding beyond Austin, where the service first launched in June 2025.
The fleet stood at four vehicles across the two new cities as of Tuesday.
Wedbush wrote that “the major focus on the conference call will be the Robotaxi rollout across seven cities in the US including the recent launch in Dallas and Houston, coupled with the launch of the much-anticipated Cybercab.”
Cantor noted that Tesla is looking to expand to Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas, and looks for an update on expansion plans and unit economics.
With Cybercab production scheduled to begin this month at Giga Texas, Cantor expects volume production in the second half of 2026.
“Overall, we continue to see Tesla‘s Robotaxi segment and Cybercab as a software-as-a-service, high-margin model,” the firm wrote, noting that they expect the company to “have the ability to scale rapidly (following commercialization) and capture meaningful market share.”
Wedbush expects management to provide details on “the company’s conversion of its Model S/X factory into a manufacturing hub for Optimus robot production which is expected to ramp to 1 million units over the coming years.”
Sheppard expects initial Optimus deliveries in the second half of 2027 and hopes for further details on the mass production timeline, fleet size, and average selling prices.
Earlier this year, Musk disclosed plans to discontinue Models S and X to repurpose the production lines for Robotaxis, Cybercab, and Optimus.
Terafab and AI
Tesla announced an investment of $2 billion in xAI in late January, prior to the company’s acquisition by SpaceX.
Wedbush wrote that it expects to hear “greater detail around Tesla‘s investment in xAI and how this translates into shares of SpaceX while expecting the company to dive deeper into the Terafab facility buildout including which company will bear the burden of supplying the billions in capital for this buildout.”
Ives has been describing the Terafab as “the first step to ultimately what will be Tesla and SpaceX combining forces in a merger likely in 2027.”
Cantor said Tesla is targeting one terawatt of AI chip output per year when the facility is fully complete, with two types of chips — one for vehicles, autonomy, and Optimus robots, and one primarily for SpaceX’s orbital data centers.
The analyst does not expect volume manufacturing until 2027 at the earliest.
Earlier this month, Musk confirmed tapeout of the AI5 chip and clarified that it would be used on Optimus and supercomputer clusters, while the current AI4 hardware is sufficient for FSD.
Outlook
“We believe the Street is at a crossroads with Tesla as the bulls and bears debate how quickly the AI era will take shape over the coming year,” Ives wrote.
The analyst expects “to hear greater clarity around the company’s AI initiatives front and center after announcing a significant investment year of ~$20 billion in AI capex across Cybercab, semi production, and a new mega factory.”
Tesla previously guided FY26 capital expenditures of more than $20 billion — a material step-up from ~$8.5 billion in 2025.
“Overall, we continue to view FY26 as a transformational year for the company as it transitions into autonomy, AI, and robotics,” Cantor’s analyst added.
Wedbush’s Ives maintained his Outperform rating and $600 price target — implying a 55.3% upside based on Tuesday’s close of $386.42.
Tesla shares hit an all-time high of $498.83 on December 22, 2025.
The stock shed more than $100 in the first two months of 2026 amid an escalation of NHTSA’s probe into FSD, the first-quarter delivery miss, and broader market pressure from the Middle East conflict.
As of press time, Tesla was trading 1.5% higher at $392.
On the other hand, GLJ Research’s Johnson reiterated a Sell rating with a $24.86 target — the lowest among analysts — implying a 93.6% decline.
The analyst wrote in a new client note that their model “sits materially below the Street across every key line.”
The firm expects “revenue of $20.442B (-$1.639B/-7.4% vs. consensus), gross margin of 16.1% (-160 bps vs. consensus), non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 (-$0.06 vs. consensus), and free cash flow of -$2.517B (-$653M worse than consensus’ -$1.864B).”
