Lucid Motors’ second-quarter deliveries came in 14.1% below expectations, Stifel said on Thursday in a new research note sent to clients.
However, the firm still sees 46% of upside potential on the shares of the Newark-based electric vehicle maker.
Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro reiterated a Hold rating and $3.00 price target on Lucid, following the company’s Q2 delivery and production report.
Total deliveries for the quarter reached 3,309 vehicles, missing Stifel’s forecast of 3,852 by 14.1% and the Wall Street consensus of 3,848 units.
“2Q25 Deliveries Miss Forecast by 14%: Total deliveries of 3,309 vehicles missed our 3,852 forecast by 14.1% (below consensus of 3,848), jumped 6.4% on a sequential basis from 3,109, and improved 38.2% on a year-over-year basis from 2,394,” Gengaro wrote.
The analyst added that Lucid remains relatively well-positioned in the evolving U.S. trade landscape, although not fully insulated from global headwinds.
“As highlighted in our note titled EVolving Thoughts: Highlighting Recent OEM Commentary, and TSLA, RIVN, and Lucid’s Strong U.S. Positioning, Lucid appears better positioned to weather tariffs than legacy OEMs (given its domestic manufacturing footprint), but is not immune to potential tariff headwinds,” he wrote.
Lucid produced 3,863 vehicles in the second quarter, driven in part by the ramp-up of its Gravity SUV. The output marked a sequential increase of 74.6% and an 83.1% jump from a year earlier — but still trailed Stifel’s estimate of 4,440 units by 13%.
“Production Falls Behind Estimates: Lucid produced 3,863 vehicles during 2Q25, below our 4,440 projection (-13.0%), and rising 74.6% and 83.1% on a sequential and year-over-year basis, respectively. The introduction of the Gravity SUV drove the increases from 1Q25 and 2Q24.”
Gengaro said the firm is “confident” in the strong demand for the model while calling it “a very impressive vehicle.”
“We remain confident in the Gravity SUV’s strong demand and anticipate the restart of customer deliveries to fuel solid growth through year-end 2025. We highlighted our thoughts on the Gravity in a note titled EVolving Thoughts: Lucid Gravity is a Very Impressive Vehicle,” the analyst wrote.
Lucid has a full-year 2025 production target of 20,000 vehicles, a goal Stifel believes remains achievable.
“Management previously guided full-year 2025 production to 20,000 units, which we believe remains intact,” Gengaro wrote.
Based on its reported first-half production of 6,675 vehicles — combining 2,812 units in Q1 and 3,863 in Q2 — the company would need to manufacture 13,325 additional units in the second half to reach its guidance, implying a near-doubling of output in H2.
Lucid shares have fallen over 30% in the past six weeks.
On Wednesday, the stock traded as low as $1.98, nearing its all-time low of $1.93 reached in November.
Lucid’s market capitalization currently stands at about $6.2 billion — less than half its $13.3 billion accumulated deficit as of March, according to SEC filings.
