Nio Inc. has accumulated roughly 294,000 new orders through mid-July this year, according to weekly data cited by Goldman Sachs.
The investment banking’s weekly new-energy vehicle order tracker, published alongside its upgrade of Nio to Buy on July 13, shows the EV maker drew 86,183 orders in May, 78,636 in June, and approximately 18,000 through the first two weeks of July.
Combined, the three-month total stands at roughly 183,000 with more than two weeks of July still to come — placing the brand on track to surpass 200,000 orders across the May-to-July stretch.
The acceleration marks a sharp break from the first four months of the year, when monthly orders ranged from 13,400 in February to 44,025 in April.
January through April combined produced just 111,267 orders, less than a single month’s intake at May’s pace.
How Goldman Tracks the Data
The bank publishes a summary table covering nine major new-energy vehicle brands alongside year-over-year and month-over-month growth rates.
Deutsche Bank runs a separate weekly order monitor that broadly aligns with Goldman’s readings.
Neither series is audited, and automakers count orders in different ways, so the data works best as a directional guide rather than a precise tally.
Deutsche Bank has previously described weekly new orders as a leading indicator for monthly deliveries, sitting earlier in the funnel than the insurance registrations behind China’s monthly sales figures.
2025 Levels
The year-over-year percentages are amplified by a low base.
Goldman’s data shows Nio brand weekly orders ranged from 5,400 to 6,100 in the comparable 2025 weeks.
In July 2025, the group had just recently began deliveries for its Firefly sub-brand, and was preparing to launch its second model under Onvo — the L90 SUV, under the extremely competitive six-seat segment.
The second and third quarters of 2025 was a period before the third-generation ES8 began reshaping the company’s order book from September 2025.
The Recent Spike
January opened at 15,817 orders, a level that reflected Nio‘s narrower pre-ES9 lineup and the seasonal drag of the Chinese New Year holiday period in February, when orders fell to 13,400.
March tripled February’s figure to 38,190 as incentive packages and ES9 pre-launch traffic pushed demand higher.
April added 44,025 orders before May nearly doubled April’s total at 86,183, a month-over-month gain of 96%.
Goldman’s weekly breakdown reveals the extent to which the ES9 and ES8 five-seat launch warped Nio‘s order flow.
Weekly orders for the Nio brand jumped from 21,300 in the week of May 11–17 to 38,810 in the week of May 25–31 — a 558% year-over-year surge that coincided with the start of ES9 customer deliveries on May 28.
Orders remained elevated at 28,020 in the first week of June before settling into a range of roughly 10,800 to 14,450 per week through mid-July, according to Goldman’s data.
Deutsche Bank separately estimated the weekly figure jumped 195% year-over-year in the week of June 15–21, a reading consistent with Goldman’s own year-over-year comparison for that period.
Through the full first half and into July, the year-to-date total reached 294,165 — roughly five times the 55,217 orders the first four months had delivered on an annualized basis.
The ES9 reached 10,000 cumulative deliveries in roughly 30 days after launch.
What Changed in July
Goldman’s weekly data for July shows Nio brand orders running at approximately 10,800 in the week of June 29 to July 5 and roughly 12,200 in the week of July 6 to 12.
The modest uptick in the second week coincides with the launch of the five-seat ES8 on July 9, when Nio priced the variant from 382,800 yuan ($56,300) with the battery included — 5.9% below the six-seat model’s starting point.
Deliveries began the following day across more than ten Chinese cities.
Management has positioned the five-seat variant as a way to address a segment roughly three times the size of the three-row market.
Vice President of Brand and Communications Ma Lin said the model would not carry deep discounts, describing it as the same vehicle with two fewer seats rather than a separately positioned product.
The launch arrives as the six-seat ES8 — Nio‘s volume anchor through the first half — saw monthly deliveries halve in three months to roughly 8,900 units in June, falling below 10,000 for the first time since the production ramp began in October 2025.
Deutsche Bank attributed part of the softness to buyers waiting for the five-seat version.
Whether the new variant can reverse that slide and provide a fresh order catalyst through the second half will show up in Goldman’s and Deutsche Bank’s weekly trackers in the coming weeks.
The ASP Dimension
The order surge has coincided with an upward shift in the Nio brand’s average selling price.
Nio brand’s ASP reached 443,000 yuan ($65,200) in June, up 14% from the 390,000 yuan ($57,400) average recorded in the first quarter.
The ES9, priced from 498,000 yuan ($73,300) with the battery and up to 628,000 yuan ($92,500) for the range-topping Horizon Special Edition, drove the increase.
Founder and CEO William Li positioned the Q1 figure as roughly 50,000 yuan above BMW‘s average in China and about 50% higher than Audi‘s during the first-quarter earnings call, framing Nio as a direct competitor to German luxury incumbents.
The combination of elevated order volumes and rising ASP carries direct revenue implications.
Goldman modeled 60% revenue growth and a swing to non-GAAP net profit of 1.6 billion yuan for the full year, against a loss of 12.4 billion yuan in 2025.
Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao has estimated the ES9 could deliver more than 100,000 yuan ($14,700) in profit per unit at its average selling price above 500,000 yuan.
Orders VS. Deliveries
Goldman’s order data runs well ahead of Nio‘s delivery figures, consistent with the nature of the metrics.
Orders sit earlier in the pipeline and include cancellable reservations, whereas deliveries reflect vehicles physically handed to customers.
Nio Inc. delivered 40,597 vehicles across its three brands — Nio, Onvo and Firefly — in June, with the Nio brand contributing 21,908 units.
First-half group deliveries reached a record 191,123 vehicles, up 67.4% year-over-year.
Goldman modeled full-year volume growth of 43% for the group, with free cash flow improving to 12.1 billion yuan from negative 3.1 billion yuan in 2025.
The Path to 300,000 and Beyond
At the current weekly run rate of 10,800 to 12,200 orders, Nio would cross 300,000 year-to-date orders within the next one to two weeks and could finish July with roughly 45,000 to 50,000 monthly orders.
A full July at that pace would bring the May-through-July total to approximately 210,000 to 215,000 orders across three months — a volume that took the brand more than four months to reach at the start of the year.
Goldman’s analyst Tina Hou described the trajectory as one of the fastest volume growth among names the bank covers, adding that Nio had expanded volume by 67% year-over-year in the first half even as the domestic new-energy market contracted 14%.
The five-seat ES8 and continued ES9 deliveries give the brand two active catalysts heading into the third quarter.
Deutsche Bank previously lifted its full-year ES9 forecast to 56,000 units, citing more than 25,000 non-cancellable orders and wait times stretching to 16–17 weeks on versions equipped with the SkyRide fully active suspension.
