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XPeng Beijing Auto Show
Image Credit: XPeng

XPeng Shares Plunge Over Disappointing Q2 Results, Q3 Guidance

XPeng’s US-listed shares fell more than 7% on Monday morning to $11.33, marking their lowest level since the first trading day of 2025.

The decline came after the Guangzhou-based automaker reported second-quarter results and issued third-quarter guidance that fell well short of Wall Street expectations.

Hours before reporting the results, the company announced a $900 million funding round for its robotics subsidiary.

Investors focused on the core auto business rather than the robot milestone, with the selloff that had already pushed shares to a 19-month low of $11.49 on August 13.

Q2 Earnings Miss Across the Board

XPeng posted a net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders of 1.34 billion yuan ($199 million) in the second quarter ended June 30, nearly triple the 480 million yuan loss a year earlier.

Total revenues rose 8.0% year on year to 19.74 billion yuan ($2.91 billion), missing analysts’ average estimate of 20.57 billion yuan.

Deliveries of 103,295 vehicles landed within the company’s guidance range of 100,000 to 106,000 units, but were essentially flat against the 103,181 delivered in the same quarter of 2025.

Vehicle margin fell to 12.1% from 14.3% a year earlier, which XPeng attributed to product generation transition.

The headline gross margin rose to 20.7% from 17.3%, but the improvement did not come from selling cars.

Vehicle sales generated 2.06 billion yuan of gross profit on 17.05 billion yuan of revenue. Services and others generated 2.02 billion yuan on 2.70 billion yuan.

Services accounted for 13.7% of revenue and 49.6% of gross profit. The segment’s margin reached 75.1% from 53.6%, which XPeng attributed to technical research and development services rendered to a car manufacturer it identifies only as “the Manufacturer,” following the achievement of key milestones in the quarter.

Services revenue rose 93.9% year on year. Vehicle sales revenue rose 1.0%.

Research and development expenses rose 32.1% to 2.91 billion yuan, driven by new models and AI-related technology,

XPeng guided third-quarter revenue of 21.7 billion to 23.4 billion yuan ($3.22 billion to $3.47 billion), well below the analyst consensus of 26.61 billion yuan compiled by LSEG.

The midpoint of the range fell roughly 15% short of expectations.

Quarterly and Annual Targets

Delivery guidance of 115,000 to 121,000 vehicles implied August and September shipments of roughly 77,000 to 83,000 units after July’s 38,027 — or an average of 38,500 to 41,500 a month.

At the low end, XPeng needs barely more than July’s result. At the top, the company would approach its all-time monthly record of 42,013 units set in October 2025, a level not reached since.

The guidance compounded doubts about XPeng’s internal target of 550,000 to 600,000 global deliveries for 2026, representing growth of 28.1% to 39.7% over the 429,445 vehicles delivered in 2025.

Cumulative deliveries through July 31 reached 204,004 vehicles, a 12.8% decline from the 233,906 delivered over the same period last year.

Progress stands at 37.1% of the lower bound with five months remaining.

Reaching the floor demands 345,996 more vehicles from August through December, an average of 69,199 a month.

XPeng has never delivered 69,000 vehicles in a single month — its all-time high sits 39% below the pace the lower bound now requires.

Lineup Update

Closing the gap to the annual target could depend on the success of the several models — namely SUVs — XPeng is now bringing to the market.

The Mona L03 compact coupe SUV launched globally in Munich on July 16 and shipped 2,884 wholesale units during a partial first month of availability.

Deutsche Bank expects the model to reach roughly 15,000 monthly deliveries at steady state — a run rate that would give XPeng a second high-volume pillar alongside the Mona M03 sedan, which has anchored the lineup since August 2024.

XPeng began taking pre-orders for the G9L large SUV on August 11, pricing the six BEV and EREV variants from 259,800 yuan ($38,700).

The company now has three large SUVs available, considering it launched the flagship GX SUV in May, which became its second best-selling model in July, just after the Mona M03 sedan.

“The success of the GX and the Mona L03 gives us more confidence in our upcoming models,” founder He Xiaopeng said on the earnings call. “We are translating our competitive strengths in best-in-class intelligence and standout design into higher sales targets and stronger brand momentum.”

According to the Chief Executive, “our flagship five-seat SUV, the G9L, will officially launch and begin delivery in September.”

The founder also acknowledged the launch of the third model under the Mona series for the first time, stating that “the Mona L05 will also launch in China in the fourth quarter.”

The upcoming addition was photographed roadtesting without camouflage earlier this month, roughly three months after appearing in its first MIIT filing.

“With the launch of four brand new SUV models, we will cover all major SUV segments,” He added. “We believe XPeng deliveries to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, with monthly deliveries targeting more than 60,000 units.”

A monthly pace of 60,000 units in Q4 would produce roughly 180,000 deliveries across October, November and December.

Added to the 204,004 delivered through July and the 77,000 to 83,000 implied for August and September, that would produce a full-year total of roughly 461,000 to 467,000 — between 83,000 and 89,000 short of the 550,000 floor.

“In 2027, we will also introduce multiple star models, including extended range EV models in overseas markets, further expanding our geographic coverage and market share,” He said.

$900 Million Robot Round

Hours before releasing earnings, XPeng announced its robotics subsidiary Dogotix Inc. had raised more than $900 million at a post-money valuation above $6.3 billion, or about 43 billion yuan.

The transaction has not closed. XPeng said it would retain controlling ownership upon completion, with the robotics business continuing to be consolidated into group accounts.

“We will accelerate our progress towards the ‘ChatGPT’ moment for physical AI, whilst bringing additional strategic resources to strengthen the robotics ecosystem and expand real world applications,” XPeng’s founder and CEO He Xiaopeng said during the company’s earnings call.

IDG Capital led the transaction, with participation from Gaorong Ventures and strategic support from Tencent and Alibaba.

XPeng will retain controlling ownership and continue to consolidate the robotics business into group accounts.

The IRON humanoid is set to enter mass production by year-end, with formal sales and deliveries in China and overseas from 2027.

“Next year, monthly production capacities can rapidly ramp up to several thousand units in response to market demand,” He said, adding that he believes “the technological barriers to advanced general-purpose humanoid robots are exceptionally high, while the supply of high-quality humanoid robots remain limited.”

Monday’s share price reaction suggested the market viewed the round as a long-term bet that does little to address near-term auto margin pressure.

Export Push

XPeng’s results landed amid a broader deterioration in China’s domestic auto market.

Chinese domestic car sales have been in steady decline since late last year, as weak consumer demand and years of intense price competition left the world’s biggest auto market contending with excess capacity.

While deliveries continue to weaken in their domestic market, the pressure has pushed automakers to accelerate exports and overseas expansion.

XPeng shipped a record 9,700 vehicles and kits overseas in July, a 223.3% increase year on year, bringing exports to 25.5% of total wholesale volume — the highest share in the company’s history.

On a separate measure, the company said overseas revenue exceeded 25% of the total in the first half.

“Furthermore, our overseas operations boast exceptional quality with an average selling price of our exports exceeding €40,000 [$46,700], placing our per-value revenue and gross profit at the forefront of Chinese automakers expanding globally,” the company’s founder stated during the earnings call.

The company is targeting “40,000+” overseas units in the fourth quarter, which implies an average of 13,333 units per month.

Matilde is a Law-backed writer who joined CARBA in April 2025 as a Junior Reporter.