XPeng guided third-quarter deliveries of 115,000 to 121,000 vehicles on Monday, after reporting second-quarter results that missed analyst estimates.
The guidance implies August-September deliveries of 76,973 to 82,973 vehicles, after July’s 38,027, implying around 38,500 to 41,500 units a month.
At the low end, the bar is barely above July’s result.
An average of 38,487 deliveries per month across the two remaining months would clear the floor, just 460 units above July.
However, reaching the top of the range would demand an average of 41,487 units a month.
The figures would bring XPeng close to its all-time monthly record of 42,013 — set in October 2025 — a level the company has not approached since.
The Annual Gap
Cumulative deliveries through July 31 reached 204,004 vehicles, down 12.8% from the 233,906 units shipped over the same period of 2025.
XPeng set an internal target of 550,000 to 600,000 global deliveries for 2026.
Progress stands at 37.1% of the lower bound and 34.0% of the upper with five months remaining.
Reaching the floor requires 345,996 more vehicles from August through December, an average of 69,199 per month. Hitting the ceiling demands 79,199.
XPeng has never delivered 69,000 vehicles in a single month — its all-time high of 42,013 sits 39% below the pace the lower bound now demands.
Subtracting the August-September numbers implied by the Q3 guidance — around 79,973 units — from the remaining annual total leaves a fourth-quarter target of approximately 266,000 to 316,000 vehicles, or 88,700 to 105,300 a month across October, November and December.
The Q2 Figures
Deliveries of 103,295 in the quarter were essentially flat against the 103,181 units delivered a year earlier.
XPeng reported second-quarter revenue of 19.74 billion yuan ($2.91 billion), below the 20.57 billion yuan analysts expected.
Non-GAAP loss per ADS came in at 1.29 yuan against a consensus estimate of 0.29 yuan.
Cash fell to 40.48 billion yuan ($5.97 billion) from 42.09 billion yuan three months prior, while short-term borrowings more than doubled to 10.07 billion yuan over the six months to June.
Vehicle margin fell to 12.1% from 14.3% a year earlier.
Services and other revenue — boosted by engineering fees from a car manufacturer XPeng identifies only as “the Manufacturer” — accounted for 49.6% of gross profit on just 13.7% of revenue.
Services revenue rose 93.9% year on year while vehicle sales revenue grew 1.0%.
New Models Carry the Second Half
Hitting the annual guidance requires a rapid contribution from newly launched and upcoming models.
The Mona L03 compact coupe SUV debuted globally in Munich on July 16 and recorded 2,884 wholesale units in its first partial month.
Deutsche Bank has forecast monthly L03 sales of about 15,000 units once supply normalizes, a level that would replicate the role the Mona M03 sedan played as the company’s volume anchor since August 2024.
The G9L large SUV opened pre-sales on August 11 from 259,800 yuan ($38,700) across six BEV and EREV variants, entering a segment contested by Li Auto’s L7 and the Huawei-backed Aito M7.
Further down the pipeline, the Mona L05 mid-size SUV was spotted roadtesting without camouflage earlier this month, three months after its first MIIT filing, with a market debut expected before year-end.
Together, the L03 ramp, G9L launch, L05 introduction and continued export acceleration form the pillars of a second-half push that XPeng needs to reach an annual target no single month to date has put on pace to meet.
Exports Push
Reaching those volumes hinges in part on sustaining the acceleration in overseas shipments.
XPeng shipped a record 9,700 vehicles and kits overseas in July, a 223.3% increase from 3,000 units a year earlier and a 28.8% sequential gain over June’s 7,533.
Exports accounted for 25.5% of total wholesale deliveries, the highest share in the company’s history, up from about 10% for the full year 2025.
Through the first seven months of 2026, XPeng has shipped an estimated 41,299 vehicles abroad, approaching last year’s full-year total of 45,008 with five months still to go.
An internal target of approximately 90,000 overseas deliveries for the year requires about 9,740 exports per month from August onward — a run rate July matched for the first time.
Sustaining the pace depends on the ramp of the L03, GX and X9 in new markets and on the capacity of Magna Steyr’s Graz plant, where XPeng’s own executives have acknowledged constraints.
