Deutsche Bank expects XPeng‘s L03 SUV to reach monthly deliveries of “about 15,000 units” in 2026, as the model has accumulated more than 50,000 non-cancellable orders nationwide.
The bank cited dealer information in a new research note published on Tuesday, first reported by Chinese media outlet CnEVPost.
As a comparison, the only model under the brand to have reached 15,000 monthly units has been the Mona M03 sedan, XPeng’s best-selling and cheapest model of the lineup.
Last month, it sold 14,160 units.
Deutsche Bank’s monthly projection marks an increase from its own forecast published upon the SUV’s debut, when it said it expected about 12,500 vehicles in average monthly sales for the model.
On the same research note, the bank predicted full-year sales of “around 150,000 units” in 2027 — which implies a monthly average of about 12,500 units after the initial launch frenzy.
The L03 debuted on July 2 was launched with a starting price of 123,800 yuan ($18,200) in China — about 4,000 yuan ($600) below the entry-level price of the first model under the Mona series, and XPeng‘s current best-seller, the Mona M03 sedan.
The global launch event was held last week in Munich, where the BEV version starts at €35,600 ($40,700) in Germany, with prices varying by region.
XPeng launched its cheapest SUV ever just two months after having debuted the most expensive model in its lineup — the full-size GX SUV.
Demand x Supply
Supply, rather than demand, looks like the near-term constraint.
The bank’s dealer checks put the 50,000-order split at over 40,000 units for the pure-electric version and more than 10,000 for the extended-range (EREV) variant.
Dealers attributed the demand to a lower-than-expected selling price and the SUV’s exterior design, and said the model is particularly appealing to female customers, who account for roughly 70% of total orders.
Weight on XPeng’s Deliveries
In the first half of 2026, XPeng delivered 165,977 vehicles, with June contributing 40,126 units.
Dealers expect XPeng‘s nationwide delivery volume to reach 45,000 units in July, a figure Deutsche Bank said is limited mainly by the L03’s supply during the month.
The bank’s forecast of 15,000 units per month implies the model could begin taking up at least one third of monthly deliveries, if the pace of deliveries remains around 40,000-45,000 units.
XPeng aims to deliver between 550,000 and 600,000 vehicles this year — which implies that the company must accelerate to roughly 64,000–72,000 deliveries per month in the second half.
Mona M03 x L03
The L03’s popularity has also created internal competitive pressure.
Deutsche Bank said new orders for the Mona M03 sedan declined by roughly 40% following the L03’s launch, as the two models’ price ranges overlap.
That overlap is significant given how much of XPeng‘s volume the M03 has carried.
The sedan delivered 175,689 units in 2025, about 41% of the company’s full-year deliveries, and has been increasingly dominant in Xpeng’s monthly mix, at one point accounting for nearly 43% of global deliveries in a single month.
Cumulative M03 deliveries had passed 272,000 units by the end of May.
XPeng‘s founder and CEO He Xiaopeng has said more models are coming to the Mona series, including the mid-size L05 SUV.
Recent reports and spy shots have also revealed an A-segment SUV and the brand’s first-ever station wagon, contributing to the M03’s pressure from more than just the L03 going forward.
Series x Sub-Brand
XPeng‘s structure for Mona differs from how its two biggest rivals in the EV race have organized their own pushes.
Rather than spinning Mona off as a standalone sub-brand, XPeng has launched it as a series within the main XPeng brand and has now widened its price range with the L03 sitting alongside the M03.
Nio Inc. took a different route in 2024, launching two standalone sub-brands, Onvo and Firefly, to reach the mass market while keeping the core Nio brand premium.
Yet Nio‘s own most successful models have remained its most expensive ones, under the premium brand. The larger ES8 and ES9 SUVs have been the best-selling models in June.
Xiaomi, meanwhile, is entering the EREV segment — as well as XPeng — with its own approach.
Co-founder and CEO Lei Jun has revealed that Sky Nomad is a second product series sitting alongside the SU7 and YU7, rather than a standalone sub-brand, describing the SU7 and YU7 as “the driver’s car” and Sky Nomad as “an intelligent, reconfigurable, large-space SUV.”
Unlike XPeng‘s cheaper Mona series, Xiaomi’s management has backed away from entry-level EVs.
Sky Nomad’s first model is expected to start around 200,000 yuan ($29,500), positioning it against premium incumbents like Li Auto and Aito rather than undercutting the market the way the Mona L03 has done.
