Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released on Monday showed that Tesla‘s retail sales in China dropped nearly 10% year over year in April to 25,956 units.
The figures from one of the most important markets for the Elon Musk-led company were released hours before two Wall Street firms sent out new client notes with opposing views.
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta assumed coverage on Tesla — from analyst Ryan Brinkman — maintaining the former analyst’s Underweight rating and a price target of $145.
The target implies a downside of 66.1% based on Friday’s close.
As of press time, Tesla shares were trading 1.7% higher at $435 — below the 52-week high of $498.83 set last December.
Despite a slow start to the year, Tesla shares have recovered over the last few weeks and closed 4% higher at $428.35 last Friday.
On the other hand, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter reaffirmed an Overweight rating and $500 price target on the stock — with a potential upside of 16.7%.
The firm published an updated research report titled “The Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla, 2nd Edition,” the first update in five years.
The report features revenue and profit forecasts for 17 discrete product lines, which Piper Sandler values at $400 per share — excluding Optimus, Tesla‘s forthcoming humanoid robot.
According to the analyst, at $400 per share, investors can effectively acquire exposure to Optimus at no additional cost.
Tesla China in April
Exports accounted for 53,522 of those units — roughly 67% of total output — leaving domestic sales well below year-ago levels despite the wholesale growth reported last week.
Total deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles produced at the Gigafactory Shanghai reached 79,478 units in April, up 36% from the 58,459 shipped a year earlier.
The year-over-year wholesale increase marks a sixth consecutive month of annual gains, a streak that began in November 2025 when Tesla reversed eight months of declines in the country.
Exports Hit 2nd-Highest Month
In the first four months of 2026, the Shanghai plant has shipped a cumulative 293,276 vehicles.
April’s 53,522 exports make it the second-highest export month on record for GigaShanghai, trailing only the 54,504 vehicles shipped in October 2022.
The previous second-best mark had been set in January this year, when the plant shipped 50,644 units overseas.
The heavy export skew is consistent with Tesla‘s well-documented quarterly production cycle.
GigaShanghai typically prioritizes exports at the start of each quarter before shifting focus to domestic deliveries in the second and third months.
The plant, which accounts for more than half of Tesla’s global vehicle output, serves as the company’s primary export hub for European and Asia-Pacific markets. Giga Berlin, by contrast, produces only the Model Y for European customers.
First Four Months
Tesla‘s China performance in 2026 has been defined by sharp month-to-month swings driven by seasonal factors, policy changes, and the company’s export cadence.
In January, domestic sales fell to just 18,485 units, the lowest level since November 2022 — as the market absorbed the reinstatement of a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles and a post-holiday slowdown.
February marked the weakest month of the year across the industry, with only 16 working days due to the record-long nine-day Chinese New Year holiday.
Tesla‘s wholesale volume fell to 58,599 units, though the export share flipped — exports dropped to an estimated 20,393 units, around 35% of output, with the majority of production going to domestic buyers.
In March, volumes jumped to 85,670 units — the highest monthly figure so far in 2026 — with domestic retail surging to 56,107 units. The 25,956 domestic retail units in April show a 59% sequential drop.
Model Y Leads
At the wholesale level, Tesla‘s April output was split between 52,143 Model Y units and 27,335 Model 3 units.
The Model Y accounted for approximately 65.6% of total volume, consistent with its position as the company’s best-selling vehicle globally.
The SUV’s April wholesale figure was down from 55,856 units in March but remains well above the 41,404 recorded in February.
The Model 3 also declined slightly from 29,814 in March to 27,335 in April.
The CPCA has not yet released the per-model domestic retail breakdown for April, which will provide a clearer picture of how the Model Y performed against domestic rivals.
Tesla vs Domestic Brands
With 25,956 vehicles sold to Chinese customers in April, Tesla ranked 13th among domestic automakers.
BYD maintained its dominant position with 182,025 domestic retail units, while Geely followed with 95,585 units — nearly 3.7 times Tesla‘s volume.
Both companies benefit from lineups that span battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and extended-range models (EREV) — a strategic advantage in a market where EREV demand has been rising and Tesla sells only fully electric vehicles.
Changan placed third with 64,471 units, while Stellantis-backed EV maker Leapmotor continued its rapid ascent with 57,162 units — more than 2.2 times Tesla‘s domestic volume.
Xiaomi, which is currently selling only in China, posted 36,702 units.
The broader Chinese auto market has been in what CPCA described as a “slow recovery” phase since the start of the year, following the reimposition of a 5% minimum purchase tax on electric vehicles beginning January 1.
The policy shift has weighed on domestic demand across the industry, with even BYD posting consecutive months of year-over-year retail declines.
Tesla‘s numbers are expected to improve in May and June as it redirects Shanghai output toward the Chinese market — the same pattern observed in previous quarters.
Global Sales Recovery
The company’s sales have been recovering across the globe.
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles globally in the first quarter of 2026, a 6.3% increase from a year ago — when production was disrupted by the transition to the refreshed Model Y.
The figure missed the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 units from 23 sell-side analysts.
In Europe, preliminary data showed that Tesla registered 79,539 vehicles, with March alone accounting for 53,545 units across 25 markets.
Registrations in Germany quadrupled year over year to 9,252 units in March, the company’s best monthly result in Europe’s largest auto market since December 2022.
In the first four months of the year, German sales nearly tripled to 15,978 vehicles.
In the UK, registrations rose 20% year over year in March to 8,599 units.
