Written by Cláudio Afonso | info@claudio-afonso.com
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy released a new note on Tesla where he expects around 177,000 units delivered this quarter. The prediction results in 307,000 vehicles delivered for the first quarter of 2022, which is slightly less than the consensus of 313,000 units.
“Decomposing 1Q deliveries, Jan/Feb combined deliveries was likely ~130k units; for context, Jan/Feb is below the prior first-two-months record of ~138k in Oct/Nov. Assuming Jan/Feb sales of ~130k, our expectation assumes March deliveries of ~177k units, which would represent the highest-ever final month of a quarter for Tesla (prior high of ~170k in Dec’21), benefiting from the continued ramp of volume in China” — Levy said.
“Given Tesla deliveries are typically heavily weighted toward the end of the quarter, it is certainly possible that Tesla’s likely quarter-end wave will be somewhat limited by the rise of COVID (albeit, the shutdown is not nationwide, thus it’s unclear how much the shutdown will impact deliveries). The long-term case for Tesla is only stronger – amid rising oil prices, EV uptake is an increased priority, and with Tesla the global leader in EV, its long-term case is amplified.” — the analyst added.
In Q4 2021, Tesla delivered 308,600 vehicles (+71% YoY) closing the year with a total of 936,222 units delivered, an increase of 87.4% from 2020.
Tesla announced this Monday, via Twitter, that will ask its shareholders to vote in order to enable a stock split. The vote will take place at Tesla’s 2022 Shareholder meeting later this year. The last meeting was held in October 2021 at Tesla’s GigaFactory in Austin, Texas.
Tesla’s GigaShanghai will pause production from March 28 to April 5 due to city-wide lockdown announced by the Chinese Government. The measure represents the biggest city-wide lockdown since the Covid outbreak began in early 2020. “The measure aims to curb the spread of COVID-19, protect people’s life safety and health as well as achieve the dynamic zero-COVID-19 target at the social level as soon as possible,” the city’s coronavirus prevention work leaders’ office announced.
Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois has recently raised Tesla’s Full Year 2022 and 2023 Earnings estimates by 7-9% due to recent price hikes and higher free cash flow. However, the Analyst lowered Tesla’s price target from $1,400 to $1,250 to reflect higher inflation and due to “a 50bps increase in assumed cost of capital”.
Recently, after Elon Musk warned for the “recent inflation pressure in raw materials & logistics”, Tesla raised the prices of all its models in the U.S. and on Model Y, Model 3 in China. After these price increases, Model 3 Performance costs now $78,440, Model Y Performance $85,440, Model S Plaid $158,440, and Model X Plaid $162,440 — all of these prices are for the fully optioned version. Comparing Year-over-Year, Model X Long Range was the model with the highest price increase, from $89,990 to $114,990 — 28%
Written by Cláudio Afonso | info@claudio-afonso.com