Shares of Rivian rose 6.2% to $19.80 on Monday morning, hours after JPMorgan sharply raised its price target on the EV maker even as it kept a bearish rating.
Additionally, Baird reaffirmed a bullish call following the company’s second-quarter delivery beat and annual guidance raise.
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta lifted his target to $15.00 from $9.00 while maintaining an Underweight rating, a two-thirds increase that still leaves the target about 23% below Monday’s share price as of publication time.
The raise reset a target Gupta had set only two months earlier, when he assumed coverage of Rivian on May 11 with an Underweight rating and a $9.00 target.
Gupta cited “ongoing strides in autonomy,” including a partnership with Uber, as part of the rationale for the higher target.
The Skeptic’s Math
JP Morgan’s analyst now models 2026 deliveries of about 68,100 units, up from roughly 64,900 previously, while leaving his 2027 estimate near 146,000 and introducing a 2028 forecast of about 180,000.
Rivian delivered 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, beating Bloomberg consensus of 10,607 and JPMorgan’s own estimate of 11,000, and coming in well above the company’s prior guidance of 9,000 to 11,000, on production of 12,613 units.
The strength came from the company’s commercial electric delivery vans and its R1 consumer models, rather than the newly launched R2, according to the note.
Rivian also raised its full-year delivery guidance by about 3,000 units to a range of 65,000 to 70,000, a midpoint of roughly 67,500, from 62,000 to 67,000, above both consensus of about 63,200 and JPMorgan’s prior 64,900.
Autonomy and a Second Shift
Gupta pointed to production and autonomy milestones as the swing factors for the stock from here.
Rivian is ramping R2 output at its plant in Normal, Illinois, which has annual capacity of about 155,000 units for the crossover and roughly 215,000 in total, and management indicated it is on track to add a second R2 shift in the second half of 2026, the analyst said.
The company plans to deliver point-to-point autonomy, comparable to Tesla‘s Full Self-Driving system, by the end of the year, according to the note citing the founder and CEO RJ Scaringe.
Gupta wrote that near-term share moves would track closely with progress on shipments and orders, alongside the autonomy roadmap and the vehicle-architecture partnership with Volkswagen.
Baird Holds the Bull Case
Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and a $23.00 target in a separate note first obtained by PriceTarget, leaving both unchanged after the quarter.
Kallo told clients the delivery beat brought “no change in our positive outlook,” and said he was updating his model to reflect the figure ahead of full results.
The delivery total slightly missed Baird’s Street-high estimate even as it cleared guidance and consensus, and at $23 the target implies about 17% upside from Monday’s level.
Kallo had upgraded Rivian to Outperform from Neutral on December 18, raising his target to $25 from $14 and framing 2026 as the year of the R2 launch, a call that implied 42% upside at the time.
The Baird analyst trimmed the target to $23 from $25 on February 13 while keeping the rating, then reiterated both on April 6.
Taken together, the two targets leave Rivian trading between Wall Street’s bear and bull cases, with JPMorgan’s $15 below the market and Baird’s $23 above it.
The Quarter Behind the Calls
The second quarter marked the launch of the R2, with volumes now ramping through the rest of the year.
Rivian grew deliveries nearly 14% from a year earlier, and had beaten consensus in the first quarter as well, though that period carried no R2 volume.
The raised guidance implies a heavy second-half ramp of the midsize crossover, while deliveries of the R1T pickup and R1S SUV are expected to hold roughly flat.
The firmer tone stood in contrast to 2025, when Rivian cut guidance amid softer industry demand and production adjustments, a reversal that underpins the more constructive analyst commentary.
R2 at the Center
The R2 sits at the heart of Rivian‘s 2026 growth plan and the analyst forecasts built around it.
Customer deliveries began on June 9, when Rivian also started sending order invitations and offering test drives, after beginning volume, saleable production of the crossover in late April.
Only the R2 Performance with Launch Package, at $57,990, is currently available to order, with a dual-motor Premium at $53,990 due late in 2026 and a single-motor, rear-wheel-drive Standard Long Range at $48,490 following in the first half of 2027.
The base Standard, priced at $44,990 and described by Chief Executive RJ Scaringe as “non-negotiable,” is now targeted for summer 2027, pulled forward from late 2027.
Full second-quarter results are due after the close on Thursday, July 30.
