Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow downgraded Rivian from a ‘Buy’ to a ‘Neutral’ rating on Monday, citing long-term negative impacts from US policy changes on electric vehicles as the main factor.
The analyst updated the firm’s estimates on the Irvine-based EV maker following the report of second quarter deliveries.
Rivian said last week it delivered 10,661 vehicles between April 1 and June 30. The figures lowered year over year, despite a slight increase from the 8,640 units registered in the first quarter.
According to Jewsikow, the new rating on Rivian reflects “softening R1 demand,” which he sees as “a modest negative for R2/R3 volumes,” despite being “confident in cost-reduction targets for the R2.”
Rivian‘s upcoming model, the R2, is set to be launched in the first half of 2026 and to be priced from $45,000.
The firm projects that, with the launch of the R2 and R3 models, Rivian will deliver “150,000 units in 2028,” down from the prior estimate of 185,000.
“We no longer have confidence in the required volumes and/or required ASPs (average selling price) to support our prior price target,” the analyst stated.
Guggenheim has lowered their price target by 18.8%, from $16 to $13. Rivian closed at $13.03 on Friday.
As of the time of writing, the EV maker is trading 2.7% lower at $12.67. Its stock lost 27.6% over the past twelve months.
Jewsikow also noted that “the loss of EV incentives is likely to negatively impact long-term ASP and/or volume potential as well.”
The analyst refers to the recently approved tax cuts prompted by Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and voted in Congress, according to which the $7,500 credit on EV purchases will end by September 30.
According to Jewsikow, “there are positive offsets in the form of auto interest deduction and a potential EV market void left by competitors canceling EV plans.”
Media outlet Motor1 reported earlier this year that Ford lost $5.1 billion in 2024 with its EV unit ‘Model e’. In the first quarter of 2025, the Detroit automaker reported a first-quarter EBIT loss of $849 million from its fully electric arm.
In April, General Motors announced the temporary half of production in two of its EV plants — in Michigan, US, and in Ontario, Canada.
Legacy German automakers like Audi or Mercedes-Benz have adjusted the timeline of their lineups’ electrification due to weak market demand.
The analyst highlighted that, long-term, “it is possible that Rivian and other tech-focused EV manufacturers benefit as legacy OEMs cede the EV market” to them.
However, “the headwinds presented by changing government incentives present near- and medium-term challenges that are difficult to ignore.”
The analyst said that the upside drivers are not enough to “offset the negative ramifications from lost consumer credits.”
Rivian reported a record gross profit of $206 million in the first quarter, marking its second straight quarter of positive profit, a result that was mainly due to $157 million in revenue from automotive regulatory credit sales.
While the EV maker booked most of regulatory credits in the final quarter last year, it reported half of its full-year guidance for 2025 in the first quarter alone.
For Guggenheim, “upcoming catalysts” include second quarter results, the “planned autonomy day” coming this fall and “incremental R2 updates” ahead of its launch.
