Global EV demand recovered in the second quarter, with the US market showing signs of stabilization after a weak start to the year, Bernstein said in a research note reported Monday by Investing.com.
Sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles reached 1.98 million units in June, up 9% from a year earlier, the firm said.
China accounted for 51% of the total, followed by Europe at 27%, the rest of the world at 15% and North America at 7%.
“Rest of world and Europe are the fastest-growing regions for EV demand, while the US show signs of stabilization,” analyst Neil Beveridge wrote.
Deliveries in the first five months of 2026 totaled 7.5 million units, down 1.8% from the same period of 2025, according to EV Volumes — leaving June the month that pulled the year back into growth.
Regions Diverge
Chinese sales rose 6% from May to 1.02 million units but fell 11% from a year earlier after cuts to purchase subsidies, Bernstein said.
European volumes grew 34% to 539,000 units, while rest-of-world sales doubled to 288,000 — more than twice North America’s contribution.
US sales fell to 136,000 units, down 4% from a year earlier, though the firm noted five straight months of sequential growth from January’s low.
January was the weakest month of the year, following the expiry of federal tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act at the end of September 2025.
Sequential recovery from that base doesn’t establish a durable bottom, and June volumes remained below year-earlier levels.
Rho Motion, a rival research house, read the same month at 2 million units and 7% growth, with Europe up 31% in what it called a record month and 27% ahead for the half.
Competing Counts
The gap between the two research houses is definitional.
Rho Motion, owned by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, counts passenger cars and light-duty vehicles while excluding e-scooters and heavy commercial vehicles.
The firm’s year-to-date total of 9.6 million through June sits about 2.1 million above EV Volumes‘ figure through May, consistent with a June near 2 million in both.
Hybrids Retreat
Fully electric volumes climbed 20% in June to 1.42 million units. Plug-in hybrids fell 12%.
EV Volumes expects battery-electric sales to rise 17.2% across 2026, taking 18.5% of all light-vehicle sales, while plug-in hybrids decline 10.6% to a 7.2% share. Extended-range vehicles sit inside the hybrid total, a category that has grown fastest in China.
The mix shift is lifting battery demand faster than vehicle sales. Lithium-ion demand rose 22% to 112 gigawatt-hours against 9% unit growth as automakers fitted larger packs. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.’s year-to-date share reached 39%, from 36% in 2025.
BYD Falls With China, Tesla Rises With Exports
BYD Co. led automakers at 283,000 units, down 25%. Tesla followed at 208,000, up 19%.
The split tracks the regional pattern. BYD sells overwhelmingly into the Chinese market that contracted.
Tesla is positioned the other way.
China Passenger Car Association data show its Shanghai plant shipped 295,324 vehicles abroad in the first seven months, exceeding the 226,034 exported in all of 2025 by 30.6%.
July accounted for 66,330 units, a 143.3% increase and the plant’s best export month. Domestic Chinese deliveries fell 32.9% that month to 27,249.
Forecasts Cluster, North America Excepted
Rho Motion projects 23.9 million global sales in 2026, up 15.7%, with China at 15.6 million and Europe at 4.9 million. BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook puts passenger EV sales at 23.3 million.
North America is the outlier.
Rho Motion expects the region to contract 23% and the US to fall 29% — figures that sit awkwardly against a June described as stabilizing.
S&P Global Mobility put fully electric share of US sales at 5.6% in February, near the 6% reached in October 2025, and warned of a notable downshift through the first half as buyers adjusted to post-incentive conditions.
New models would provide a floor, it said, with little movement expected before the second half.
The firm also cited the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and developing regulatory standards as potential drags on longer-term demand.
Rho Motion‘s projection of a 29% US contraction stands alongside a June that the research houses describe as stabilizing, which means either the annual figure assumes a renewed decline in the second half or the stabilization is being read generously.
