XPeng’s US-listed shares fell to their lowest level since October 2024 on Tuesday, two days before the Chinese carmaker launches the second of its two flagship SUVs and three weeks after investors valued its robotics arm at more than $6.3 billion.
The shares traded 4.06% lower at $10.28 as of publication, against Monday’s close of $10.71.
The session low of $10.16 is the lowest the shares have reached in almost two years. The last time they traded below that level was in October 2024, when they printed $10.06.
In Hong Kong, where XPeng also lists, the shares closed at HK$40.38, down 3.90% from HK$42.02 and within 0.5% of their own 52-week low of HK$40.20.
The Peg
The decline follows a target cut from one of the stock’s most enthusiastic supporters.
Morgan Stanley’s Tim Hsiao cut his XPeng price target to HK$70.00 from HK$96.00 on Tuesday, a reduction of 27.1%, while keeping an Overweight rating. He raised his target on Nio in the same note.
Hsiao wrote on March 2 that XPeng’s VLA 2.0 system was “a bold leap forward to capture the X factor”, arguing that progress in vision-language-action models would convince investors the company was more than a carmaker.
The cut brings Morgan Stanley into line with its peers rather than ahead of them. Goldman Sachs moved to HK$69.00 from HK$77.00 after second-quarter results and Macquarie to HK$70.00.
UBS initiated coverage of the Hong Kong line at Neutral with a HK$47.00 target in early September and cut its target on the American shares to $12 from $18 in the same week.
The Product Offensive
XPeng launches the G9L in China on Thursday, with deliveries beginning the same month. Pre-sale opened on August 11 at 259,800 yuan.
The company has described the G9L and the GX as a dual-flagship pair, sharing platform technology but aimed at different buyers.
The GX arrived on May 20 as XPeng’s first six-seat flagship, priced from 279,800 yuan and measuring 5,265mm on a 3,115mm wheelbase. The G9L is the five-seat counterpart, over five metres long and positioned above the existing G9.
Both sit on an 800-volt architecture and both offer battery-electric and extended-range powertrains. The models join the recently launched L03.
The company is counting on those vehicles to lift fourth-quarter volumes.
The Numbers Behind the Selling
Deliveries reached 243,111 in the first eight months, down 10.5% year on year, against 429,445 for the whole of 2025.
Matching last year would require 186,334 vehicles across the remaining four months, or about 46,584 a month. XPeng’s best month this year was June at 40,126.
Third-quarter guidance of 115,000 to 121,000 implies September deliveries between 37,866 and 43,866, after 38,027 in July and 39,107 in August.
Gross margin reached 20.7% in the second quarter, with vehicle margin at 12.1%, and the company posted a net loss of 1.34 billion yuan. Overseas deliveries exceeded 20,000 in the quarter, up 81%, and contributed more than a quarter of first-half revenue.
The Robotics Valuation
XPeng raised $900 million for its robotics unit at a post-money valuation above $6.3 billion, with $600 million coming from external investors including IDG Capital, Gaorong, Tencent and Alibaba.
That figure is equivalent to 64% of XPeng’s entire $9.85 billion market capitalisation. The unit is pre-revenue, with mass production of its IRON humanoid targeted for the end of this year and commercial deliveries in 2027.
How Far the Shares Have Fallen
The shares are down 49.3% this year and 52.1% over twelve months. The gap between those two figures is 2.76 percentage points, meaning almost the entire annual decline has come since January.
The shares are down 12.4% over a month and 25.7% over three months. The five-day decline works out at a steeper daily rate than any of the longer windows.
From the 52-week high of $28.24, reached in November, the shares are down 63.6%. From an intraday peak of $74.49, set during the 2020 electric vehicle rally, they are down 86.2%.
The market now values XPeng at less than one year of revenue. Price to sales stands at 0.8835 and price to book at 2.467.
Next earnings are expected to be released in November.
