Cantor Fitzgerald expects Tesla to report 421,758 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter, analyst Andres Sheppard wrote in a new research note, calling the figure “more conservative” than the Visible Alpha consensus.
Sheppard reiterated an Overweight rating and a $485 price target on the Elon Musk-led company on Monday — implying a 30.3% upside from Friday’s close at $372.11.
“For Q3, Visible Alpha Consensus is currently expecting 448,679 vehicle deliveries (vs. our more conservative estimate of 421,758 vehicles),” the analyst wrote.
Cantor’s estimate sits 26,921 units, or 6.0%, below that consensus figure.
Sheppard added that “for this week, we expect TSLA to pre-announce Q3 production and deliveries.”
Forecast Against Prior Quarters
Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter of 2025, when US buyers rushed to purchase ahead of the September 30, 2025 expiry of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
Cantor’s estimate implies a 15.2% year-over-year decline from that total, or 75,341 fewer vehicles.
Measured against the second quarter, when Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles, the forecast would mark a 12.2% sequential drop.
Tesla produced 451,758 vehicles in the second quarter and drew down inventory by 28,368 units.
If Cantor’s estimate holds, deliveries for the first nine months of 2026 would reach 1,259,907 units.
Such a total would sit 3.4% above the 1,217,902 vehicles delivered in the same period of 2025.
In a July 23 note, Cantor raised its full-year 2026 delivery assumption to about 1.71 million units from about 1.68 million.
Combined with the new third-quarter estimate, the full-year figure implies about 450,000 deliveries in the fourth quarter, according to EV’s calculations.
Lowest Among Recent Bank Forecasts
Cantor’s forecast sits below other recent bank estimates covered by EV.
UBS analyst Joseph Spak expects 470,000 deliveries, a 5% annual decline, and reiterated a Neutral rating and a $385 price target last week.
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney cut his forecast to 435,000 from 490,000 on September 16, citing weaker-than-expected sales data in China, the US and Europe.
Cantor’s figure trails Goldman’s by 13,242 units, or 3.0%, and UBS’s by 48,242 units, or 10.3%.
Consensus has also drifted lower. Goldman cited a Visible Alpha consensus of 456,000 in mid-September, and UBS put the same measure at 454,000 last week. Cantor now cites 448,679.
Regional data points to softer volumes.
Tesla sold an estimated 40,816 vehicles in the US in August, a 26% year-over-year decline, according to Motor Intelligence.
In China, retail sales fell 12.4% year-over-year in August to 50,047 vehicles, according to CPCA data.
A Conservative Call in Q2
Cantor also came in below consensus ahead of the second quarter delivery results.
In a June 29 note, Sheppard estimated 397,414 deliveries, below the company-compiled consensus of 406,024 units.
Tesla went on to deliver 480,126 vehicles, beating Cantor’s estimate by 82,712 units, or 20.8%.
Cantor’s energy call ran in the opposite direction.
Sheppard forecast 15.7 GWh of second-quarter storage deployments, while Tesla reported 13.5 GWh.
Energy Storage
Cantor again sits below consensus on storage for the third quarter.
Visible Alpha consensus expects “Q3 energy storage deployments of 17.1 GWh (vs. our more conservative estimate of ~15 GWh),” Sheppard wrote.
UBS forecasts 16.9 GWh for the same period.
Tesla deployed 12.5 GWh in the third quarter of 2025.
Cantor’s estimate would represent 20.0% year-over-year growth and exceed the 14.2 GWh quarterly record, set in the fourth quarter of 2025, by about 0.8 GWh.
Semi and Roadster
Sheppard also addressed Tesla’s heavy-duty truck program.
He wrote that “Musk previously framed the US truck driver shortage as a demand-side tailwind for autonomous trucking, a market Tesla intends to compete in.”
“Still, the company affirmed that the Semi will remain a very small percentage of Tesla’s total fleet even by year-end, and that autonomous trucking is less of a priority to high-volume autonomy ramp up of robotaxi/cybercab,” the analyst added.
Cantor Fitzgerald believes “the company is now producing up to ~1,000 Semi Trucks per week.”
Tesla started Semi deliveries last week, with Musk teasing self-driving capability for the truck in the “very near future.”
In its July note, Cantor said it did not model the Semi or Cybercab while awaiting further detail on unit economics.
Sheppard also pointed to the automaker’s upcoming sports car.
“Tesla also recently dropped a new teaser for its upcoming Roadster high-performance EV, with a likely reveal targeted for 10/1,” Sheppard wrote.
Tesla’s second teaser showed a Cybertruck-style front light bar, and the company has since warned the event could be rescheduled over weather.
Price Target History
Cantor set its $485 target on July 23, cutting it by $25 from $510 after Tesla’s second-quarter earnings.
Cantor had held the $510 target since Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 results, when the firm raised it 43.7%.
“We continue to view FY26 as a transformational year for the company as it transitions into autonomy, AI, robotics, and chips,” Sheppard wrote in July.
In that note, Cantor modelled FY26 and FY27 revenues of about $102.2 billion and $102.8 billion, respectively, and lowered gross margins to 18% and 19.3%.
Cantor also raised its FY27 capital expenditure estimate to $26.3 billion from about $17.2 billion, citing management comments, and cut storage deployment assumptions to about 59 GWh and 80 GWh.
Cantor derives its valuation from a 10-year bottom-up discounted cash flow model. Sheppard listed delays in the Cybercab and Optimus timelines, robotaxi regulatory hurdles, competition from Chinese automakers and a slowdown in EV demand as key risks.
Tesla closed 1.5% lower at $372.11 on Friday.
At $485, Cantor’s target implies 30.3% upside potential on the stock price.
UBS’s $385 target implies 3.5% upside from Friday’s close, while Goldman’s $360 target sits 3.3% below the same level.
