TD Cowen cut its price target on Lucid to $4 from $7 on Tuesday and Needham reiterated its ‘Hold’ rating, with both firms saying they will stay on the sidelines after the EV maker’s third-quarter results.
TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli kept a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock. The 43% reduction came on the same day that Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $6 and Baird to $5.
Needham analyst Vikram Bagri, who does not publish a price target on Lucid, wrote that new management is “delivering early progress on its operational reset,” with consumer demand “remaining the larger unknown.”
Price Target, a sister publication of EV, archives Wall Street analysts’ research on the electric vehicle, artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.
Lucid shares closed at $3.77 on Tuesday, up 4.7% on the day, after trading as high as $4.20 early in the session. TD Cowen’s new target is 6.1% above that close.
How the Shares Traded
Lucid released its results on Monday, a few minutes after the closing bell. The stock had gained 9.4% in the regular session to close at $3.60, up from $3.29 on Friday.
It fell as low as $3.27 in after-hours trading on Monday, 9.2% below the close, and was at $3.48 in pre-market trading early on Tuesday.
The shares opened little changed on Tuesday, at $3.59, and jumped to $4.20, 16.7% above Monday’s close, before giving up most of the gain. They ended the session 10.2% below that intraday high.
Tuesday’s close is 26.5% above the record closing low of $2.98 that Lucid set on November 5.
At Tuesday’s close, Lucid’s market value was about $1.49 billion, based on the 396.3 million shares outstanding on November 3, according to its quarterly report. The stock is down 64% this year, from $10.57 at the end of 2025.
What TD Cowen Said
TD Cowen called the third-quarter results mixed, according to a summary of the note published by Investing.com. The firm saw some signs of progress, but Lucid’s use of free cash flow in the second half of the year is running above what it had expected, and the fourth-quarter outlook points to a similar outcome.
Lucid reported negative free cash flow of $1.04 billion for the third quarter, compared with negative $1.48 billion in the second. Revenue of $350.3 million, up 4% from a year earlier, missed analysts’ estimates.
The net loss was $830.9 million and the adjusted loss was $2.30 per share, according to the earnings release. Gross margin improved to negative 73.7% on lower inventory write-downs.
“Our transformation is beginning to show progress,” Chief Executive Officer Silvio Napoli said in the release.
The firm noted that Lucid’s delayed draw term loan from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), which was increased by $1.75 billion, is expected to extend liquidity into the fourth quarter of 2027.
It said that supports the robotaxi launch with Uber and Nuro planned for the first quarter of 2027 and the start of production of the Midsize platform.
TD Cowen described Lucid’s new branding efforts as key to how the company is set up for 2027. It remains on the sidelines while it waits for more evidence that the turnaround is gaining traction, according to the summary.
Michaeli’s Two Questions
Both themes came up when Michaeli questioned management on Monday’s earnings call. He first asked Napoli how he defines the Lucid brand and which metrics he is tracking.
“We did a brand assessment and concluded that the brand is still very much there,” Napoli said. “But also the way the brand was conveyed was not always consistent.”
Napoli said Lucid worked with an outside agency and found that one of its highest marketing scores was the conversion from test drive to purchase.
He said the company had always spoken “about trophies, about awards,” which is “not the way customers can relate to.” The new approach will build until the Midsize launch, he said.
Michaeli then asked about fourth-quarter free cash flow and the roughly $600 million still to be delivered under Lucid’s $1.4 billion cash improvement plan.
Chief Financial Officer Alexander De Bock said the remainder “will result into a sequential improvement once again from Q3 into Q4.” He cautioned on its size. “The magnitude of that improvement will not be at the same size as the improvement we had Q2 to Q3,” he said.
“The main impact we will have in the fourth quarter is on the inventory side,” De Bock said.
Earlier in the call, answering a question from Bank of America, he said Lucid expects fourth-quarter deliveries to rise from the 3,806 vehicles of the third, when it built 2,954 and sold down inventory.
What Needham Said
Bagri’s note credits the cost work. “Cash consumption declined q/q, with LCID on track to achieve its FY26 savings target, while additional PIF support extends liquidity into 4Q27,” he wrote.
“We see two tangible catalysts ahead in the UBER/Nuro robotaxi launch and midsize platform introduction, both of which could help reposition LCID with consumers,” he added.
His reservation is about the cars Lucid already sells. “Air and Gravity have struggled to generate sustained enthusiasm, leaving the midsize demand opportunity difficult to underwrite,” Bagri wrote.
“With sizeable additional capital needs still reflected in our model we remain on the sidelines pending greater visibility into consumer adoption and the path towards profitability,” he said.
Cantor made a similar point in its own note on Tuesday, saying it still models a capital raise in the third quarter of 2027. Bagri was not among the six analysts who asked questions on Monday’s call.
TD Cowen: From $23 to $4
Michaeli initiated coverage of Lucid on March 6, 2025, with a ‘Hold’ rating and a $2.30 target. Adjusted for Lucid’s 1-for-10 reverse split of September 2025, that equals $23.
The stock closed at $2.09 that day, or $20.90 on the same basis.
He called the risk-reward “balanced” and described the Gravity SUV as a “second chance” for Lucid in a larger segment. “If Gravity doesn’t demonstrate early volume momentum, the stock will likely struggle to work,” he wrote, according to TipRanks‘ report on the note.
He also judged the Gravity’s starting price of about $95,000 too high to drive a significant ramp in volume, the same report said.
The target has been lowered at each of its last four changes. It went to $19 from $22 in November 2025, when TD Cowen said third-quarter results had fallen short of its estimate, and to $10 in April, the day after Lucid named Napoli as its next Chief Executive Officer and announced a $1.05 billion capital raise.
That April move nearly halved the target. A cut to $7 followed in May, one of several target reductions after the first-quarter results.
At $4, the target is 83% below the split-adjusted level at which TD Cowen started 20 months ago and 79% below where it stood a year ago.
Michaeli previously covered Lucid at Citigroup, where he initiated with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $28 target in September 2021. That equals $280 after the split.
Needham: ‘Hold’ Since 2023
Needham has rated Lucid ‘Hold’ since November 27, 2023, when analyst Chris Pierce downgraded the stock from ‘Buy.’ He cited “ultimately not having enough faith in near-term demand to drive unit volumes.”
The firm’s view had swung before that. Bagri started coverage in September 2022 with an ‘Underperform’ rating. He called the Lucid Air “the epitome of luxury in EV sedans” but expected production to build gradually and saw a need for more funding, according to Benzinga.
In February 2023, Pierce reinstated a ‘Buy’ rating with a $16 target, the same outlet reported. That target equals $160 after the split.
Demand has been the constant since the downgrade. In September 2024, after Lucid’s technology day, Bagri wrote that “to date the messaging hasn’t resonated with consumers,” leaving demand and the timing of scale as overhangs.
In May 2025, he was more upbeat on the SUV. The Gravity was “off to a strong start,” he wrote, giving the brand “a second chance at a first introduction.”
Three months later he said “near-term execution challenges temper its long-term growth potential,” while calling Gravity demand trends “encouraging.”
In May of this year, after the first-quarter results, Bagri wrote that “elevated inventory, worsening gross margins, and continued negative unit economics reinforce that the path to profitability remains execution-dependent.”
Eighteen months after calling the Gravity’s start strong, he now writes that the Air and the Gravity have struggled to generate sustained enthusiasm.
Where Wall Street Stands
Among the six targets from the past three months that Price Target counts, TD Cowen’s $4 matches RBC Capital’s $4 with a ‘Sector Perform’ rating and sits above only Morgan Stanley’s $3 with an ‘Underweight’ rating. Citi’s $11 with a ‘Buy’ rating is the highest of the six.
RBC Capital kept its $4 target on Tuesday and Bank of America maintained its ‘Underperform’ rating, according to ratings compiled by StockAnalysis.
BNP Paribas, which is not in the archive, has had a $3.50 target since October 6, the same data shows. Stifel’s $17 target dates from March and is too old for the median.
The median of the six latest targets is $4.50, down from $7 a month ago, according to Price Target’s data. Five of the six have been cut in the past 30 days and none has been raised.
Six of the eight analysts with a rating in the past three months are at ‘Hold’ or its equivalent, with one ‘Buy’ and one ‘Sell,’ the same data shows.
