Cantor Fitzgerald and Baird cut their price targets on Lucid on Tuesday after the EV maker’s third-quarter results, and both kept ‘Neutral’ ratings.
Cantor lowered its target to $6 from $8 and said it still models a capital raise in the third quarter of 2027, even after Lucid’s Saudi backer extended it another $1.75 billion in credit. Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his to $5 from $6.
Cantor analyst Andres Sheppard, who asked the first two questions from analysts on Monday’s third-quarter earnings call, wrote that Cantor is “encouraged by the new management’s roadmap towards accelerating LCID’s path to profitability.”
“Still, we remain Neutral, driven by additional capital needs, negative margins, supply-chain disruptions, and awaiting further granularity on Robotaxi and Midsize Ramp-up,” he said in the note.
Cantor’s target is 67% above Monday’s close of $3.60 and Baird’s is 39% above it. Lucid shares rose 9.4% on Monday ahead of the results and were down 2.2% at $3.52 in pre-market trading on Tuesday.
It is Cantor’s fourth consecutive cut to its Lucid target in just over a year and Baird’s sixth cut in the same period, according to the firms’ earlier notes. Price Target, a sister publication of EV, archives Wall Street analysts’ research on the electric vehicle, artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.
With both cuts, the median of the five latest analyst targets on Lucid in Price Target’s data falls to $5 from $6.
What Cantor Said
Lucid reported third-quarter revenue of $350.3 million, below Cantor’s $410.4 million estimate and the Visible Alpha consensus of $396.3 million, Sheppard wrote. Revenue was up 4% from a year earlier and down 13.6% from the second quarter. Deliveries of 3,806 vehicles exceeded production of 2,954 as the company sold down inventory.
“More importantly,” he wrote, Lucid reaffirmed that its AMP-2 plant in Saudi Arabia is on track for inauguration in “early 2027,” ahead of the Midsize platform, whose material production ramp is targeted for the second half of 2027. Lucid’s results release says the plant “has entered the final stages of industrialization and commissioning.”
“We view the SOP at AMP-2 and the launch of the Midsize platform as the two most material catalysts for the company,” Sheppard wrote, using the abbreviation for start of production.
Cantor expects the Midsize, with a targeted starting price below $50,000, to “materially accelerate the company’s path towards profitability.” It also expects the model to account for most of the deliveries under Lucid’s agreement with the Saudi government for up to 50,000 vehicles, with an option for 50,000 more.
Management said it expects to announce reveal and production dates in the first quarter of 2027.
On robotaxis, Sheppard noted the target of a commercial launch in the Bay Area in the first quarter of 2027 with Uber, a date that slipped from late 2026. Lucid said in its release that the program expanded to more than 100 vehicles on the road in August.
He called Lucid’s partnership with Bolt an entry into European ride-hailing, “which we view as a growth market for the company.” On the call, CEO Silvio Napoli described it as “an MoU discussion together with Bolt.” Bolt plans to start with tens of vehicles in Madrid in 2027.
He also pointed to the $1.4 billion cash flow improvement Lucid is targeting by year-end, of which the company said it had achieved $0.8 billion by the end of the third quarter. That “is encouraging, in our view,” he wrote.
The Capital Question
Sheppard put Lucid’s total liquidity at about $3.75 billion after the increase in its delayed draw term loan from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). That is the pro forma figure Lucid gave. Liquidity at the end of the quarter was $2.0 billion before the new facility.
Management expects that to fund the business “into 4Q27,” he wrote, “though we conservatively model a capital raise in 3Q27.”
Cantor’s model has carried a capital raise in that quarter since its note of August 5. In February, it had modeled one for the third quarter of 2026.
The Two Questions
Sheppard opened the analyst session by congratulating management on “the material cost savings” and asking what is left before AMP-2 is operational.
Napoli said the paint shop is in commissioning and the body shop is being assembled. “It’s like if all the players in an orchestra were tuning their instruments,” he said. “The next step is to make sure they play together.”
Once know-how is transferred from Arizona, Napoli said, “we’re going to start producing 1, 2, 10, 100, 1,000 of our Midsize units to then be ready for complete launch and ramp up at the end of the year.”
Sheppard then asked about capital needs and the relationship with the PIF. “Should we expect them to continue to do that going forward?” he asked.
“We are extremely fortunate and privileged to have a solid, thoughtful and at the same time, demanding shareholder as PIF,” Napoli said. He said the $1.75 billion extension “is also the result of what they’ve seen as improvement that we could generate over the last few months.”
Chief Financial Officer Alexander De Bock said investment in AMP-2 and the Midsize will continue through 2027. Once those projects are complete, he said, “we will see a significant reduction in the capital needs for the company.” He did not give a figure for future needs.
From $230 to $6
Sheppard initiated coverage of Lucid on September 27, 2022, with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a $23 target. Adjusted for Lucid’s 1-for-10 reverse split of September 2025, that equals $230.
The target was down to $18 by February 2023, when Cantor cut it to $13 and said it had become more conservative in the short term. In November 2023, Sheppard downgraded the stock to ‘Neutral’ and cut the target to $6 from $10, citing persistent negative gross margins after Lucid lowered its production forecast.
A second downgrade followed in February 2024, to ‘Underweight,’ with the target cut to $4.
Cantor has been at ‘Neutral’ on Lucid since August 2024, when Sheppard upgraded the stock from ‘Underweight’ with a $4 target after the PIF agreed to invest another $1.5 billion. Adjusted for the split, that target equals $40.
He trimmed it to $3 in November 2024, citing lower average selling prices and a higher share count after an equity raise.
After the reverse split in September 2025, Cantor reset the target to $20 from $3. On a split-adjusted basis that was a 33% cut.
The only increase came three weeks later. Sheppard raised the target to $26 after hosting then-interim CEO Marc Winterhoff and then-Chief Financial Officer Taoufiq Boussaid for investor meetings in New York.
Four cuts have followed. Cantor went to $21 in November 2025 when Lucid lowered its 2025 production guidance, and to $14 in February when 2026 production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles came in below the Visible Alpha consensus of about 34,000.
It went to $8 in May after the new management suspended guidance, which Sheppard called “mildly disappointing.” In August, he held the target and cut his 2026 production estimate to 15,048 vehicles from 25,050.
At $6, the target is 77% below the September 2025 level and 85% below the split-adjusted $40 of 2024. It is 97% below the split-adjusted $230 at which Cantor started coverage four years ago.
The reasons for caution have barely changed. Cantor’s notes of February and May cited “persistent high negative gross margin” and “additional capital needs,” the same two concerns that lead Tuesday’s list.
The dates attached to the catalysts have changed. In May, Cantor expected the robotaxi launch, the completion of AMP-2 and the Midsize launch all by the end of 2026.
Tuesday’s note puts the robotaxi launch in the first quarter of 2027, the AMP-2 inauguration in early 2027 and the Midsize ramp in the second half of 2027, all reflecting Lucid’s new targets.
Baird’s Record
Baird’s note setting out the reasons for Tuesday’s cut was not immediately available.
Kallo has rated Lucid ‘Neutral’ since initiating coverage in September 2023, and his target has moved lower at almost every update.
Before the reverse split, he raised it to $3 from $2 in April 2025 and cut it back to $2 that August, the equivalent of $30 and $20 today. “We believe the true catalysts will be cost reductions (vehicle profitability) and a potential tech licensing deal,” he wrote then.
The cuts since then run to $17 from $20 in November 2025, to $14 in January and to $13 in February. The one increase, back to $14, came the day after Lucid’s investor day in March.
Kallo cut to $12 in April, the day after Lucid named Napoli as its next Chief Executive Officer and announced a $1.05 billion capital raise. He then halved the target to $6 in May, when four firms cut after the first-quarter results.
He held at $6 through two delivery reports. In July, he wrote that Lucid’s leadership changes mattered more than its second-quarter delivery miss.
His October note opened with “No change in outlook.” Third-quarter deliveries missed estimates “as LCID continues to weather the challenging demand backdrop for luxury EVs,” he wrote. “No formal guidance was reinstated, which we speculate will be given moving into 2027.”
At $5, Baird’s target is 75% below the split-adjusted $20 of August 2025.
Cantor’s $6 and Baird’s $5 sit above RBC Capital’s $4 with a ‘Sector Perform’ rating and Morgan Stanley’s $3 with an ‘Underweight’ rating, and below Citi’s $11 with a ‘Buy’ rating.
