Wall Street analysts have begun reacting to Lucid Motors‘ first-quarter earnings results.
The Saudi-backed EV maker reported on Tuesday revenue of $282.5 million, meeting its own guidance but posting a wider-than-expected net loss of $1.028 billion as gross margins deteriorated to negative 110%.
Lucid‘s cash position dropped sharply to $700 million from $2.1 billion a quarter earlier, though a $1.05 billion capital raise from PIF, Uber, and a public offering lifted pro forma liquidity to $4.7 billion.
Management deferred updated production and capital expenditure guidance to the second quarter, pending a review with incoming CEO Silvio Napoli.
Stock Performance
Lucid went public in July 2021 through a merger with special purpose acquisition company Churchill Capital Corp IV, in a deal that valued the combined entity at approximately $24 billion.
Shares reached a split-adjusted all-time high of $577.50 in November 2021, during a period in which several EV startup stocks peaked — and have not returned to those levels since.
In August 2025, Lucid executed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split after the stock traded in the $2 to $3 range on a pre-split basis, a move the company said would make its shares more accessible to institutional investors.
Despite the split, the stock continued to fall throughout 2025 and into 2026, pressured by reductions to annual production guidance, more than a dozen C-suite and senior executive departures, software issues, and persistent negative gross margins.
Repeated capital raises have also fuelled investor concerns about dilution, though management has pushed back on that narrative.
Last December, VP of Communications Nick Twork addressed the issue directly on X, arguing that PIF — as the largest shareholder — is the most impacted by any dilution.
“Their performance is measured on the performance of their investment and valuation upside,” Twork wrote. “The impact of any theoretical dilution is much higher on them than any other shareholder.”
The stock hit a fresh all-time low of $5.62 in late April, equivalent to $0.562 on a pre-split basis.
Shares closed at $6.25 on Tuesday, giving the company a market capitalisation of approximately $2.07 billion — a decline of more than 98% from its 2021 peak.
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which holds approximately 57% of outstanding shares, has invested roughly five times what Lucid is currently worth on public markets.
As of press time, the stock was trading 4% down at $5.99 on Wednesday morning.
Baird’s Price Target
In the aftermath of the results, several analysts updated their valuation on the stock.
Baird analyst Ben Kallo slashed its price target on Lucid by 5o% to $6.00.
The firm’s target has been cut in nearly every quarterly update, with only two raises — one in April 2025 and one after March’s Investor Day.
Kallo has maintained a Neutral rating since initiating coverage in September 2023.
The analyst participated on Tuesday’s earnings call, questioning Lucid on “sales partnerships,” which he said would “be very important, especially as you introduce the Midsize vehicle.”
Baird’s analyst mentioned Europe as an example — as first reported by EV, Lucid has partnered with German-based Wackenhut, which became its first retail distributor on the continent.
Instead of relying only on a direct-to-consumer model, the company is now working with local partners in countries where it already operates, and is looking to use importers to expand into new markets.
Lucid expects to triple its presence across Europe this year.
Winterhoff noted that the model “allows us to much faster grow within the areas and the countries we are already in, for instance, in Germany or in the Netherlands, or expand into new countries through an importership where you then use existing infrastructure and existing business relationships of those importers to scale much faster.”
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its Underweight rating on Lucid on Wednesday, halving its price target on the company’s stock to $5.00 from $10.00.
During the earnings call, analyst Andrew Percoco pressed Lucid’s leadership on its free cash flow outlook and the assumptions behind its liquidity guidance through at least the second half of 2027.
CFO Taoufiq Boussaid pointed to seasonal patterns as the key framing.
“You need to recall that there is a typical seasonality in the company and that we see significantly improved cash flows during or on the back end of the year,” he said, cautioning against reading too much into figures.
Boussaid attributed the elevated first-quarter cash burn to the Gravity stop-sale impact and the natural cadence of the business, adding that Lucid expects to recover lost ground as deliveries ramp through the second half.
On commodity costs, Winterhoff said the pressure has been minimal.
“Right now, that is very limited,” he noted, acknowledging recent aluminum price increases but noting they have stabilized. “We don’t see a major impact compared to where we ended end of last year right now.”
TD Cowen analyst Italy Michaeli also lowered the price target on Lucid to $7.00 (from $10.00), while maintaining a Hold rating.
Michaeli nearly halved the firm’s price target on the EV maker in mid-April, cutting it to $10 from $19.
The reduction — the largest single-move cut since TD Cowen initiated coverage in March 2025 — came alongside a wave of analyst downgrades triggered by Lucid’s $1.05 billion capital raise and the appointment of Silvio Napoli as permanent CEO.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard released a new note on Wednesday morning, maintaining the stock’s Neutral rating while also cutting its target by 42.9% — to $8.00.
Hold Ratings
Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg downgraded the company from Buy to Hold, while Needham analyst Vikram Bagri reiterated its Hold rating on the stock.
Benchmark had kept a Buy rating on Lucid since initiating coverage in February 2025 and had been one of the more optimistic voices on the stock.
Separately, Needham analyst Vikram Bagri weighed in on the results, noting that “the quarter strengthened the long term narrative around autonomy and platform expansion.”
Bagri, who has maintained a Hold rating on Lucid since initiating coverage, flagged that the recent capital raise — including investments from Uber and PIF alongside a public offering, totaling approximately $1.05 billion — helps reduce near-term risk, with liquidity now extended into the second half of 2027.
However, the analyst cautioned that the path forward remains uncertain.
“Elevated inventory, worsening gross margins, and continued negative unit economics reinforce that the path to profitability remains execution-dependent amid a still difficult EV demand backdrop,” he wrote.
Needham has consistently acknowledged Lucid’s technology strenghts — including its industry-leading EV efficiency and the scalability of its powertrain platform — while warning that near-term execution challenges temper the company’s long-term growth potential.
