TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli has nearly halved the firm’s price target on Lucid Motors on Wednesday while maintaining a Hold rating, the second cut of the day as Wall Street firms weigh in on the leadership and financial announcements shared on Tuesday.
The cut — to $10 from $19 — came hours after the brokerage firm Baird also lowered its target by $2 to $12, and on the first day of employment for incoming CEO Silvio Napoli, who begins as Executive Director while awaiting US work authorisation.
Both price target reductions followed Tuesday’s cascade of announcements.
Lucid‘s board appointed a new permanent CEO, announced a $1.05 billion capital raise, an expanded Uber purchase deal, and a $300 million stock offering — that initially lifted the stock before the dilutive impact of the offering pushed shares to a new record low.
Lucid shares plunged to $8.11 on Wednesday — a new all-time low — extending a string of successive record lows and marking a decline of more than 98.7% from the company’s 2021 peak of $648.60 on a split-adjusted basis.
The stock has lost approximately 23% since the start of 2026.
TD Cowen’s Cut
Michaeli’s reduction from $19 to $10 is the largest single-move cut on Lucid since TD Cowen initiated coverage in March 2025 with a Hold rating and a pre-split price target of $2.30 — equivalent to approximately $23 on a post-split adjusted basis.
In the nine months since, TD Cowen’s target has been lowered multiple times.
The target was $23 at initiation, $22 in September 2025, $19 in November 2025, and now $10.
The latest cut wipes out roughly 57% of the firm’s original valuation in just over a year.
At its initiation, Michaeli described Lucid‘s risk-reward as “balanced” and told investors to “sit this one out,” while acknowledging the company’s “tech moat” in battery efficiency and range.
He framed the Gravity SUV as a “second chance” for Lucid to achieve commercial success in a larger, more in-demand market segment.
Lucid guided for 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles in 2026 but produced just 5,500 and delivered 3,093 in the first quarter, with deliveries depressed by a Gravity seat belt recall that halted handovers for 29 days.
Michaeli previously covered Lucid at Citigroup, where he initiated with a Buy rating and a $28 target in September 2021 — equivalent to $280 on a post-split basis.
Baird Also Cut
Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his target by $2 to $12 on the same day while maintaining a Neutral rating he has held since initiating coverage in September 2023, when shares were trading at around $60 on a reverse stock split-adjusted basis.
Since then, the stock has fallen by 85%.
The firm’s target has been cut in nearly every quarterly update, with only two raises — one in April 2025 and one after the March 2026 Investor Day — against eight cuts.
Based on Tuesday’s closing price of $8.80, Baird’s $12 target implies 36.4% upside, while TD Cowen’s $10 implies just 13.6%.
What Triggered the Cuts
Tuesday’s announcements represented one of the most significant days for the Saudi-backed brand.
The board named Silvio Napoli, the former chairman and CEO of Switzerland’s Schindler Group, as Lucid‘s next permanent chief executive — ending a 14-month search that began when founder-era CEO Peter Rawlinson departed in February 2025.
Napoli starts Wednesday as Executive Director under a Swiss employment agreement and will be appointed CEO once he receives US work authorisation. Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff transitions to Chief Operating Officer.
As reported earlier on Wednesday by EV, Napoli’s compensation include a $1.5 million annual base salary, a target bonus of 200% of salary, and a 2026 long-term incentive grant valued at $9.5 million split between restricted stock units and performance-based RSUs.
He also receives a one-time grant of performance-based stock options on up to one million shares, split into five tranches tied to market capitalisation hurdles of $5 billion, $7.5 billion, $10 billion, $12.5 billion, and $17.5 billion — each requiring a sustained 45-day volume-weighted average.
Based on Wednesday’s market cap of $2.69 billion, the first tranche requires an 86% increase; the fifth requires a more than sixfold rise.
Napoli also receives a $1 million relocation lump sum and up to $25,000 per month for six months in temporary housing, as EV reported earlier on Wednesday.
The EV maker has also disclosed a $1.05 billion capital raise comprising a $300 million public stock offering underwritten by Bank of America, a $200 million additional investment from Uber, and a $550 million convertible preferred stock purchase by an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
The Uber deal expanded the existing robotaxi partnership from 20,000 to 35,000 vehicles and now includes Lucid’s upcoming midsize platform alongside the Gravity SUV.
The first model of the platform is on track to start production by the year end, according to recent comments from the management.
Uber‘s total committed investment in Lucid rose to $500 million, up from the $300 million announced in July last year.
Stock Performance
Lucid shares fell as low as $8.11 on Wednesday — a new all-time low — before trading at $8.21 at the time of writing, down 6.65% on the session.
The stock briefly spiked to $10.56 on Tuesday afternoon following the CEO announcement before reversing sharply as the dilutive capital raise filings hit the market.
The intraday swing from Tuesday’s $10.56 high to Wednesday’s $8.21 low represents a 22% decline in less than 24 hours.
The company’s market capitalisation fell to $2.69 billion. One-third of Lucid’s float is sold short, with 33.26% of shares outstanding held in short positions.
The stock has fallen 7.0% over five days and 64.5% over the past twelve months.
From the 2021 all-time high of $648.60 on a split-adjusted basis, the decline now exceeds 98.5%.
The company’s next earnings report is scheduled for May 5.
