Baird analyst Ben Kallo lowered his price target on Lucid Motors, a day after the EV maker announced a new permanent CEO, expanded its purchase deal with Uber, secured fresh funding from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and launched a $300 million stock offering.
The cut continues a pattern from Baird Equity Research of trimming its outlook on Lucid since initiating coverage in September 2023, when shares were trading at around $60 on a reverse stock split-adjusted basis.
Since then, the stock of the Saudi-backed EV maker has fallen by 85.3%.
Baird lowered its target on Lucid shares by $2 to $12 on Wednesday while maintaining a Neutral rating.
Based on Tuesday’s closing price of $8.80, the lowered target still implies an upside potential of 36.4%.
As of press time, Lucid‘s stock was trading 1.4% higher at $8.93 in Wednesday’s pre-market session.
What Lucid Announced
Tuesday’s announcements represented one of the most significant single-day news flows in Lucid‘s history as a public company.
The board named Silvio Napoli, the former chairman and CEO of Switzerland’s Schindler Group, as Lucid’s next permanent chief executive — ending a 14-month search that began when founder-era CEO Peter Rawlinson departed in February 2025.
Napoli starts this Wednesday as Executive Director under a Swiss employment agreement and will be appointed CEO once he receives US work authorisation.
Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff transitions to Chief Operating Officer, his previous role.
Separately, Lucid disclosed a $1.05 billion capital raise comprising three components: a $300 million public stock offering underwritten by Bank of America, a $200 million additional investment from Uber, and a $550 million convertible preferred stock purchase by an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund.
The PIF holds approximately 50% of Lucid’s shares.
The Uber deal expanded the existing robotaxi partnership from 20,000 to 35,000 vehicles — an increase of 15,000 units — and now includes Lucid‘s upcoming midsize platform alongside the Gravity SUV.
Uber’s total committed investment in Lucid rose to $500 million.
Baird’s Coverage History
Kallo first initiated coverage on Lucid in September 2023 with a Neutral rating and a price target equivalent to $70 on a post-split adjusted basis, when the stock was trading between $50 and $60 in adjusted terms.
He described Lucid‘s technology as “top-notch” but flagged a “challenging near-term setup,” citing high starting prices, a niche market segment, production difficulties, and the likelihood that Lucid would need to raise more capital.
The firm began 2025 with a $20 price target on Lucid, adjusted for the 1-for-10 reverse stock split executed last August.
In April 2025, Kallo raised the target to $30 — the highest in his coverage history — while maintaining his Neutral rating, citing progress on the midsize platform and the acquisition of Nikola’s former manufacturing plant in Coolidge, Arizona.
Six months later, the firm cut its target to $21 from $26 in November after Lucid reported Q3 2025 financial results and tightened its annual production guidance to approximately 18,000 vehicles from a range of 18,000-20,000.
On the same day, the EV maker said the PIF had agreed to increase its delayed draw term loan facility from $750 million to $2 billion.
In the first week of January, Kallo lowered the target again to $14 from $17, despite the company meeting its revised 2025 production guidance and unveiling a production-intent robotaxi at CES alongside Nvidia and Nuro.
Lucid produced 18,378 vehicles in 2025, exceeding its revised guidance of approximately 18,000 units. Fourth-quarter production reached 8,412 units, up 116% from Q3. Deliveries rose 31% to 5,345 vehicles.
However, Lucid subsequently revised those figures downward after 538 units failed internal validation checks, bringing the final production total to 17,840 — below the 18,000 threshold.
On February 25, following Lucid‘s Q4 2025 results, Kallo cut the target to $13 from $14 after the company’s 2026 production guidance of 25,000-27,000 vehicles came in below consensus expectations.
On March 13 — a day after Lucid‘s inaugural Investor Day — Kallo raised the target back to $14 from $13, calling the company’s midterm and late-decade financial targets “an important benchmark against which investors can measure LCID’s progress which will improve transparency.”
He noted that Lucid‘s expansion into midsize vehicles and autonomy could grow the company’s total addressable market from approximately $40 billion to more than $700 billion.
However, he cautioned that “the near-term backdrop for EVs remains challenging with headwinds such as tariffs and policy muting investor sentiment.”
Wednesday’s cut brings the target to its lowest level since Kallo initiated coverage.
Price Target Timeline (Post-Split Adjusted)
Baird’s price target on Lucid has trended consistently downward since mid-2025, with only two raises — one in April 2025 and one after the March 2026 Investor Day — against eight cuts.
Kallo has maintained a Neutral rating without interruption throughout the entire coverage period.
He has never upgraded Lucid to Outperform or downgraded it to Underperform.
The Production Guidance Pattern
Baird’s persistent caution reflects a recurring pattern at Lucid: the company has missed its original annual production target in every year except 2024.
In 2022, Lucid began the year targeting 20,000 vehicles before cutting twice — first to 12,000-14,000, then to 6,000-7,000. It produced 7,180.
In 2023, the initial target of 10,000-14,000 was lowered to 8,000-8,500 and the company ended up producing 8,428 EVs.
In 2024, the company guided for approximately 9,000 and met the target with 9,029.
In 2025, the target was cut from 20,000 to 18,000-20,000 in August, then to approximately 18,000 in November. The final total of 17,840 fell short even of the twice-lowered figure.
For 2026, Lucid has guided for 25,000-27,000 vehicles. It produced 5,500 and delivered 3,093 in Q1, with deliveries depressed by a Gravity seat belt recall that halted handovers for 29 days.
