Baird and StoneX both left their ratings on Lucid unchanged on Tuesday after the EV maker’s third-quarter deliveries missed estimates, with Baird keeping a $6 price target and StoneX pointing to weak sell-through.
“No change in outlook,” Baird Analyst Ben Kallo, who rates the stock Neutral, wrote in a note obtained by Price Target.
Lucid “reported Q3 deliveries that missed our/consensus estimates and declined y/y” as it “continues to weather the challenging demand backdrop for luxury EVs”, he wrote.
The stock was trading at $4.185 at 10:33 a.m. in New York, up 0.4% from Monday’s close of $4.17, after giving up most of an early gain of as much as 3.8% that took it to $4.33.
Baird’s target implies a gain of about 43% from that level.
What Lucid Reported
Lucid delivered 3,806 vehicles in the third quarter, down 6.7% from a year earlier, and produced 2,954, it said after the market closed on Monday.
Analysts had expected 4,687 deliveries and production of 3,709, according to Visible Alpha estimates.
That left deliveries 19% below the consensus and output 20% below it.
StoneX measured the miss against a different and higher set of numbers, citing FactSet estimates of 5,900 deliveries and 3,497 vehicles produced.
Production fell 38.1% from the second quarter and 24.1% from a year earlier, after Lucid eliminated the second shift at its Arizona plant.
“Production declined both sequentially and y/y as the company manages inventory,” Kallo wrote.
Deliveries exceeded production by 852 vehicles, the first quarter in a year in which Lucid sold more cars than it built.
Inventory and the Cash Plan
Kallo tied the lower output to the cash programme Lucid set out with its second-quarter results on August 4.
“Recall that inventory management was outlined in LCID’s Q2 update as the largest area for improving cash management ($600M-$800M of inventory savings in broader $1.4B plan),” he wrote.
Lucid said in that update that it had identified $1.4 billion of cash reductions for 2026, made up of about $600 million to $800 million from inventory, about $500 million from capital expenditure and about $200 million from operating expenses.
The company reported $3.0 billion of total liquidity at the end of June and said its financing and operational measures were expected to provide a runway “well into 2027”.
Lucid has not said on Monday how much of the inventory target it has achieved.
No Guidance
The Saudi-backed EV maker gave no production or delivery target with Monday’s figures.
“No formal guidance was reinstated, which we speculate will be given moving into 2027,” Kallo wrote.
The company suspended its 2026 production guidance of 25,000 to 27,000 vehicles earlier this year. It delivered 10,852 vehicles in the first nine months, up 3.4% from the same period of 2025, and produced 13,228.
“We are updating our model for deliveries, and our outlook is unchanged,” Kallo wrote, without giving the new estimates.
StoneX’s Take
StoneX Analyst Mickey Legg reiterated a Hold rating, in a note published by Price Target that carries no price target.
“Lucid’s Q3 deliveries miss expectations despite inventory reduction,” Legg wrote.
On the FactSet figures he cited, production was 15.5% below consensus and deliveries 35.5% below.
“Deliveries exceeded production, indicating progress on inventory conversion, but the substantial delivery shortfall underscores the challenge of improving sell-through,” he wrote.
“As such, we maintain our Hold rating.”
Legg’s coverage of Lucid began at The Benchmark Company, where he initiated on the stock on February 12, 2025 with a Buy rating and a $5 target, equal to $50 after the reverse split.
StoneX completed its acquisition of Benchmark, including its equity research business, on August 5, 2025.
He cut the rating to Hold on May 6 this year, the same day Baird halved its target.
Baird’s Target This Year
The $6 target is half the level Baird held in the spring. Kallo raised his target to $14 from $13 on March 13, cut it to $12 on April 15 and cut it again to $6 on May 6, according to Price Target‘s record of the firm’s notes.
He left it at $6 on July 6 and again on Tuesday, keeping the Neutral rating throughout.
Among other firms tracked by Price Target, targets on Lucid range from $5 at Morgan Stanley to $11 at Citi.
Lucid is due to report third-quarter financial results on November 9.
