Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco lowered the firm’s price target on Ford to $14 from $15 on Thursday, while maintaining an Equalweight rating, according to a research note first obtained by PriceTarget.
The cut effectively unwinds the increase Percoco issued just three weeks earlier on the back of the automaker’s second-quarter earnings beat.
Percoco raised the target to $15 from $14 on July 29, one day after Ford reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and prompted the company to lift its full-year forecast.
The stock was trading at about $15 at the time.
In his July note, Percoco said Ford had delivered another solid quarter, with pricing and product mix driving upside to full-year guidance, led by the Bronco, the F-150 Raptor and three-row sport utility vehicles.
He said Morgan Stanley expected “the company to post Y/Y earnings growth,” reaching $11.2 billion of adjusted EBIT for 2027 and described coming away more positive on the outlook for Ford‘s core auto business.
Percoco also flagged a significant development outside vehicles.
Management had highlighted the option to double dedicated energy storage capacity to 40 GWh from 20 GWh, describing customer engagement as having depth and placing the company in the third inning of selling out its 2028 capacity.
“While timing is unclear, we believe this is a clear indication of the potential demand trends that the company is seeing,” he wrote.
Percoco suspected those customers included data centres and expected further energy storage announcements in the second half of 2026.
Three weeks later, those signals have not sustained the higher target.
Shares fell about 13.6% from their post-earnings peak near $16.20 to trade below $14.00 at points in early August before recovering to Wednesday’s close.
Stock Performance
Morgan Stanley’s new target implies just a 3.4% downside from Wednesday’s close of $14.50.
Ford has shed about 18% of its value since hitting its 52-week high of 17.78 on May 28, capping a rally fueled in part by a May 13 Morgan Stanley note — in which Percoco suggested Ford‘s energy division could eventually be worth about $10 billion.
The stock surged more than 13% on the date of the note alone.
Shares fell through June as concerns about tariff headwinds, USMCA renegotiation costs and persistent EV division losses weighed on the stock.
The July 28 earnings report reversed some of the damage.
Ford reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.42, above the $0.35 consensus, and raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
Six brokerages moved their targets higher the following day, and shares briefly touched $16.29 in after-hours trading. However, the rally stalled almost immediately.
Coverage History
Morgan Stanley’s view on Ford has shifted markedly over the past two and a half years, across two lead analysts and through deep uncertainty about the automaker’s EV transition.
Adam Jonas covered the stock for at least two years before handing it off in 2025.
In early 2024, he held an Overweight rating on the Detroit automaker, with a price target fluctuating between $15 and $17. By then, he cited a positive free-cash-flow outlook tied to slower EV adoption.
The tone changed sharply later in the year.
In September, Jonas downgraded both Ford and General Motors, from Overweight to Equalweight.
The analyst lowered the Jim Farley-led company’s price target to $12 from $16.
He cited intensifying competition from Chinese automakers and weakening US consumer conditions.
The target had drifted to $11 by mid-2025.
Percoco Assumes Coverage
In late 2025, Percoco formally assumed coverage on Ford as part of a broader analyst transition.
He set the target at $14 and kept the Equalweight rating, saying Morgan Stanley was leaning cautious heading into 2026, and expected what they called an “EV winter” to continue affecting the company, though it held a moderately more positive view on internal combustion engines and hybrids.
Under Percoco, the target has moved in a narrow band.
He maintained $14 on May 13, 2026, with the energy storage note, and reaffirmed $14 on June 1, noting limited near-term upside after a strong rally.
The July 29 raise to $15 was, so far, the only increase during his tenure — which has now been erased, according to Thursday’s note.
