Ford shares rose more than 8% on Wednesday morning in New York, after Citi upgraded the stock and five other brokerages raised their price targets on the back of second-quarter results and an increased full-year forecast.
The stock traded at $16.21 shortly after 10:15 a.m. ET, up 8.4% from Tuesday’s close of $14.96, having opened at $15.57 and reached an intraday high of $16.24.
The move added close to $5 billion to the company’s market value.
Volume passed 26 million shares within the first 45 minutes, against a three-month daily average of about 63 million.
Citi Upgrades to Buy
Citi analyst Michael Ward raised his rating to Buy from Neutral and lifted his target to $20 from $19, the highest among the firms moving on Wednesday.
Ward cited accelerating F-Series production, lower warranty accruals, improved aluminium supply and moderating material costs as supports for the second half.
He also pointed to positioning. Only three of the 18 analysts covering Ford carry buy ratings, he noted, against 15 buys among the 22 firms covering General Motors. “We believe the momentum is turning,” Ward wrote, raising estimates for 2026 through 2028.
Five Targets Raised
The remaining moves lifted valuations without changing recommendations.
Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter went to $17 from $16, maintaining an overweight rating, on a valuation of eight times his 2027 earnings estimate.
Potter argued the quarter contained considerable distortion — commodity inflation, battery factory ramp-up costs, aluminium supplier restart timing, EV charges and tariff refunds — but that the picture beneath it was sound.
His estimates were rising on steady demand for high-margin vehicles, lower warranty costs and higher software and services revenue rather than on one-time items, he wrote, concluding that “Ford’s underlying business is performing well.”
JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta also moved to $17 from $16 with an overweight rating.
Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco raised his target to $15 from $14 on an equalweight rating, TD Cowen’s Itay Michaeli to $15 from $13 on a hold, and RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan to $15 from $13 on a sector perform rating.
Across the six firms the average target stands at $16.50, marginally below where the shares were trading by mid-morning.<!– FLOURISH 2: Price target changes by firm — old vs new, with rating, sorted by new target –>
What the Analysts Credited
Percoco attributed the guidance upgrade to pricing and product mix, naming the Bronco, the F-150 Raptor and three-row sport utility vehicles as the drivers, and now models about $11.2 billion of adjusted EBIT for 2027.
He described coming away more positive on the core automotive business, with pricing and mix continuing to drive estimates higher in line with peers.
His note also flagged an area outside the vehicle business that received little attention on the call itself. Management highlighted the option to double dedicated energy storage capacity to 40 GWh from 20 GWh, without giving timing, and described customer engagement as having depth while placing the company in the “third inning” of selling out its 2028 capacity.
Percoco suspects those customers include data centres, and expects further energy storage announcements in the second half.
What Ford Raised
Management lifted guidance across every operating segment.
Full-year adjusted EBIT guidance rose to a range of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, and adjusted free cash flow to $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion from $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.
Capital spending guidance was left unchanged at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
Ford Blue was raised to $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion from $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, and Ford Pro to $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion from $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion. Ford Credit moved to above $2.5 billion from approximately $2.5 billion.
Model e was the exception in form rather than direction, narrowed to about $4.0 billion of losses from a range of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion — a revision that removes the worse outcome without improving the expected one.
Ford attributed the increase to stronger pricing and mix, and the free cash flow revision to an earlier recovery of tariff cash under IEEPA, with roughly $0.5 billion of a $1.3 billion reimbursement now expected in 2026 rather than entirely in 2027.
Other Q2 Milestones
Company adjusted EBIT margin reached 5.2%, up 0.9 percentage points, and adjusted return on invested capital reached 13.2% on a trailing four-quarter basis, up 3.1 points.
Global paid software subscriptions passed 1.6 million, a rise of about 50.0% year over year, with more than 900,000 of those in Ford Pro Intelligence.
Ford was named the top mainstream brand for new vehicle quality in the JD Power 2026 US Initial Quality Study, its first such ranking since 2010, and held roughly 40% share of US Class 1-7 vehicle sales.
The company reported record sales for the Maverick Hybrid, combined Explorer and Expedition US retail sales up more than 20%, and off-road performance trims accounting for nearly a quarter of the US sales mix.
Management said it remains on track for $1 billion of full-year material and warranty cost reductions.
Cash stood at $22.3 billion and liquidity at $43.4 billion.
The Quarter Behind the Move
Ford reported adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $2.5 billion on Tuesday, up 17.0%, on revenue down 4.0% to $48.3 billion.
Adjusted earnings per share of 42 cents beat the 35 cents expected by analysts polled by LSEG, while automotive revenue of $44.89 billion fell short of the $45.86 billion consensus.
Management raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion from $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, and adjusted free cash flow guidance to $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion from $5.0 billion to $6.0 billion.
On a GAAP basis the company posted a net loss of $1.33 billion, or 33 cents a share, driven by $4.2 billion of pre-tax special items including a $3.6 billion charge on the disposition of its BlueOval SK battery joint venture.
The EV division was the weakest segment.
Model e lost $919 million as wholesales fell 53.3% to 28,000 units and revenue dropped 56.0% to $1.0 billion, leaving a loss of roughly $32,800 on each vehicle wholesaled.
Guidance for the division was narrowed to about $4.0 billion of losses for the year from a prior range of $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion.
Ford Blue delivered $1.1 billion of EBIT and Ford Pro $1.7 billion, the latter down $600 million on aluminium supply constraints tied to Novelis.
The automaker’s assisted driving software BlueCruise saw its subscriptions jump by 20% in Q2 as cumulative miles near 900 million.
Trading Pattern
Shares climbed roughly 7% in after-hours trading on Tuesday, reaching $16.29, before easing during management’s conference call and closing the extended session lower.
Wednesday’s opening returned the stock to those levels.
The shares are now up 23.7% this year and 49.3% over twelve months.
Chief executive Jim Farley used the call to press for a rewrite of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, arguing that Japanese and South Korean manufacturers benefit from stronger local supply chains, weaker currencies and what he called a modest tariff rate.
