TD Cowen released on Friday a new research note updating its second quarter deliveries estimates for Tesla, ahead of the official results scheduled to be released next week.
In a new client note, analyst Itay Michaeli said the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 362,000 vehicles in the second quarter, 38,000 fewer than its previous estimate.
In the second quarter of 2024, Tesla produced 410,831 EVs while delivering 443,956.
“By region, we’ve reduced our China and U.S. delivery estimates,” Michaeli wrote, adding that European estimates were “largely unchanged.”
The firm expects Tesla‘s delivery figures to stay above the first quarter’s numbers — which were below Wall Street’s estimates, at 336,681 units.
First-quarter deliveries also fell below the levels recorded in every quarter of 2024, as Tesla geared up for the refreshed launch of its best-selling Model Y. The model started being rolled out in March, with first deliveries varying by market.
The U.S. brand’s registrations in Europe have declined since the beginning of the year, also due to increased competition from Chinese EV makers expanding to the continent.
However, TD Cowen reduced its second quarter EPS (Earnings per Share) estimates from $0.37 to $0.33 due to “lower deliveries” expectations.
The analyst stated that “if there’s any ‘good news’ in an otherwise soft first half [of 2025], it’s that U.S. data has pointed more to Tesla suffering from demand deferral than demand destruction.”
The company has recently unveiled the refreshed versions of its flagship Model S and X, and an upcoming affordable model was confirmed by the brand in the latest quarterly shareholder deck.
Itay Michaeli reiterated TD Cowen’s price target of $330 on Tesla. Based on Thursday’s close at $325.78, the price target implies an upside potential of 1.3%.
The firm’s Buy rating on the stock also remained unchanged.
Earlier this week, Michaeli had released a note commenting on Tesla‘s Robotaxi launch, stating that TD Cowen remains bullish on the Tesla AV opportunity.”
The analyst said he was “impressed” by “Tesla‘s UI, which appeared well developed for an early state ride-share deployment” and noted that the “initial Austin operating area (ODD) was larger than we would’ve thought.”
“For a first day, pretty impressive,” he concluded.
