Nio’s US-listed shares closed at $3.70 on Wednesday with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 22.46, its lowest closing reading since October 24, 2022.
As of publication time, the stock traded at $3.61 with the index at 20.77, a level that, if held to the close, would be the lowest since June 2019, according to Webull data based on daily closing prices since the September 2018 listing.
The RSI is a momentum measure that compares the size of a stock’s recent gains with the size of its recent losses over a set number of sessions, on a scale from zero to 100.
A reading below 30 is conventionally described as oversold, and one above 70 as overbought. The index is calculated on closes, so Thursday’s reading is provisional until the market closes.
The Record
Since the listing there have been 14 sessions on which the daily index closed at or below Wednesday’s 22.46.
Thirteen were in 2019: nine between May 31 and June 17, as the stock fell from $3.05 to $2.42, and three between September 27 and October 1, as it fell to $1.32, the all-time closing low, on which day the index reached 16.92, its record low.
The fourteenth was October 24, 2022, at 21.58, with the stock at $9.45.
No other session since the listing has produced a reading that low, including the March 2020 crash, whose low was 25.90 on March 19, the April 2025 sell-off, whose low was 26.72 on April 8, the day the stock touched $3.02, and the December 2025 decline, whose low was 23.81 on December 3.
The August 2024 trough, when the stock fell to $3.67, never took the index below 30.
2019 Difficulties
The 2019 readings belong to the period Li has described as the company’s near-death.
Nio’s share price fell below $4 for the first time in the second quarter of 2019, less than a third of its offer price, and reached $1.32 at the close on October 1, 2019, the day the index set its record low of 16.92, and $1.19 intraday the next day.
A 4,800-vehicle battery recall in June 2019, executive departures including the Chief Financial Officer in October, and the collapse of a planned investment from Beijing’s Yizhuang district left the company with about 1 billion yuan of cash in the fourth quarter of 2019.
It was rescued by a $200 million convertible note in September 2019, half from Tencent and half from Li personally, by the sale of pre-ordered stamping equipment to Tesla’s Shanghai plant for more than 100 million yuan, and, in April 2020, by 7 billion yuan from investors led by the Hefei municipal government, after which the stock rose to its 2021 peak.
Li described the period in an interview with LatePost published in March 2021.
“2019 was a ‘perfect storm’ for us,” he said. “I call it the ‘extreme stress test.’ You survive, you will have stronger immunity. If you don’t, it’s over, and no one is coming to save you.”
He said that from September 2018 he had told executives “now is the most dangerous time for us, because an airplane is the most dangerous when it takes off,” and that after an IPO that raised $1.1 billion instead of the $2 billion sought he told his wife “an era is over.”
At the worst, he said, he and his finance, supply-chain and co-founder Qin Lihong “were lining up cash plans at 10 pm every night, for a company of nearly 10,000 people, in units of 10,000 RMB,” to keep cars supplied, wages paid and suppliers settled.
“The battery recall was the most difficult for me at that time because it touched the interests of users and it was not something expected,” Li said.
Thursday’s provisional 20.77 would rank below the October 2022 reading and below all but four of the 2019 readings. It would be the lowest close of the index since June 14, 2019, when it read 20.13 with the stock at $2.42. It would remain above the record.
The Episode
The index crossed below 30 on September 2, the day after the second-quarter results, and has closed below it in each of the five sessions since, reading 25.72 on September 2 and 3, 24.50 on September 4, 24.30 on September 8 and 22.46 on September 9.
The October 2022 episode kept the index below 30 for 17 sessions and the autumn 2019 episode for 12.
The stock closed lower in each of the last three sessions through Wednesday. It was unchanged at $3.86 on September 3.
From the $4.81 close of August 3 it has fallen 23.1%, and from the $4.36 close of August 24, then a 13-month low, 15.1%.
The weekly index stood at 32.17 on Thursday’s provisional close, above the 30 line. Its lowest weekly readings since the listing were in 2019, between 27.03 on June 10 and 27.81 on September 30, and 28.28 on March 7, 2022.
The weekly reading has not fallen below the 2019 and 2022 levels.
The Price
Wednesday’s $3.70 was the lowest close since July 10, 2025, when the stock closed at $3.69. Thursday’s $3.59 intraday low is below the 2024 low of $3.61, set on an intraday basis, and above the April 8, 2025 low of $3.02.
The stock last closed below $3.625 on July 9, 2025.
The largest shareholder is furthest under water.
CYVN Holdings, the Abu Dhabi investor holding about 17.9%, paid $8.72 and $7.50 an ADS in its two 2023 purchases. Thursday morning’s $3.61 is 58.6% below the first and 51.9% below the second.
Market value was $9.04 billion on 2.51 billion shares based on Wednesday’s close.
Market Value Against Cash
At Wednesday’s close of $3.70, Nio’s market value was $9.29 billion on 2.51 billion shares outstanding.
The company reported cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and long-term time deposits of 56.7 billion yuan at June 30, 2026, in its second-quarter results of September 1, which is equivalent to about $8.36.
The market was therefore valuing the company at 1.11 times its reported cash balance, or $0.93 billion above it, and the cash balance equates to $3.33 per share against the $3.70 close.
The comparison is of equity value with gross cash and does not net out Nio’s borrowings, convertible notes and other liabilities, which were also disclosed at June 30 and are not treated here.
What the Founder Has Said
Nio’s Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer William Li addressed the share price on Friday, September 4, three sessions into the post-results decline, at a small media briefing after the company’s earnings communication meeting, reported by Sina Technology News and by EV that day.
Asked when the market might reassess Nio, he said it was not something the company could decide. “What we can do is continue to focus on doing our own work well, keep investing in our brand, and maintain strategic discipline and a long-term mindset,” he said. “I also find it difficult to convince investors. The only thing I can do is convince them through our operating results.”
Li said the market was missing four things: the company’s in-house research and AI capability, the scarcity of its brand, the value of its energy business, and its services and community operation.
The founder said they generated more than 10 billion yuan of revenue in 2025, grew through the first two quarters of 2026 and is profitable, “a source of relatively predictable earnings based on our vehicle ownership base.”
He rejected the comparison with the 2021 peak: “In 2021, our market capitalisation was very high, but our company is definitely healthier now than it was then. The automotive industry is still somewhat undervalued today.”
“Many people simply lack imagination about the business we are in,” he said while describing Nio as an energy company and an AI company operating under manufacturing constraints.
Earlier this week, Li told all employees in an internal address that the company’s task for the next three years is to “focus on the core business, focus on the premium segment, focus on core markets.”
Additionally, he added that Nio will stay out of humanoid robotics except as an investor, and that a “heavyweight new car” is coming in 2027. He described the market as being in “the most brutal stage of the final round.”
He did not mention the results, the third-quarter outlook or the share price
Q2 Results and Reactions
On the first day of September, the company reported revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, up 69.1%, a GAAP net loss of 528 million yuan, vehicle margin of 18.5% against 18.8% in the first quarter.
The company issued a third-quarter guidance of 108,000 to 111,000 deliveries and 33.3 billion to 34.1 billion yuan of revenue.
In the following hours and days, Nio saw six price-target cuts between September 1 and 4.
JPMorgan to Neutral at $4.50 from $7, Citi to $7.10 from $8.20, BofA to $5.20 from $6, Bernstein to $5 from $6, Freedom Broker to $4 from $7 and Goldman Sachs to $6.10 from $7.
UBS cut its target to $5.60 from $8.50 on Thursday, a 34.1% reduction, keeping Buy, per the rating table on its own disclosure site, which logs the change against a $3.70 stock price.
It is the seventh cut since the results and the largest in percentage terms, and the $8.50 it replaces dates from the September 16, 2025 upgrade to Buy at $7.02.
The Hong Kong-listed shares touched HK$29.44 on September 2, their lowest since July 2025.
