Tesla‘s Shanghai factory sent 8,817 vehicles to Chinese customers in October, its weakest domestic month since July 2022, as exports absorbed 87% of the plant’s output, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data released Monday.
The domestic figure is the difference between the 67,829 vehicles Tesla China wholesaled in October and the 59,012 it exported, both reported by CPCA.
It was down 66.1% from 26,006 a year earlier and 86.4% from 64,837 in September.
The last time the gap between Tesla’s Shanghai wholesale and exports was smaller was July 2022, when the plant wholesaled 28,217 vehicles and shipped 19,756 overseas, leaving 8,461 for the domestic market, CPCA data show. This year’s next-weakest domestic month was January, at 18,485 units.
Absent From CPCA’s Retail Ranking
Tesla did not appear on CPCA’s October list of automakers that retailed more than 20,000 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, a list that ended with FAW Bestune at 20,793. A month earlier, Tesla ranked fourth in the association’s September retail ranking with 64,837 units.
BYD led the October list with 250,301 units, followed by Geely with 131,708 and Leapmotor with 83,573. Xiaomi retailed 50,123 vehicles, XPeng 36,911, Nio 34,030 and Li Auto 27,018.
Set against the 1.109 million NEVs CPCA counted at retail in October, Tesla’s domestic volume works out to about 0.8%. A year earlier, CPCA put Tesla’s share of domestic NEV retail at 2%, down 1.4 percentage points from 2024.
Tesla’s slide was steeper than the market’s. China’s NEV retail sales fell 13.7% from a year earlier but rose 2.3% from September, CPCA said. Overall passenger-car retail dropped 27.1% to 1.643 million, pushing NEV penetration to a record 67.5%.
Fourth Among China’s NEV Exporters
Tesla ranked fourth among China’s NEV exporters in October, behind BYD with 165,194 units, Chery with 83,843 and Geely with 80,119, CPCA said. Its 59,012 exports were 10.1% of the 582,000 NEVs China shipped abroad in the month, a total that rose 144.7% from a year earlier.
October’s exports were up 66.3% from 35,491 a year earlier and nearly double September’s 30,529. They were the most since July, when Tesla China shipped 66,330 vehicles abroad. July helped drive a third quarter in which Shanghai exports hit a record while domestic sales fell.
Exports made up 87% of the Shanghai plant’s October wholesale volume, up from 58% a year earlier and 32% in September. That was the highest monthly share this year, ahead of January’s 73%, and above the roughly 76% of October 2022, when the factory shipped a then-record 54,504 vehicles overseas, according to CPCA figures.
By total NEV wholesale, Tesla ranked eighth, behind BYD, Geely, Chery, Leapmotor, Changan, SAIC-GM-Wuling and SAIC Passenger Vehicle.
The Shanghai plant builds the Model 3 and Model Y for China and for export markets including Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Tesla’s registrations rose 69% across seven European markets in October.
Wholesale Growth
Export growth kept total volume rising. Tesla China’s October wholesale climbed 10.3% from 61,497 a year earlier, the 12th consecutive month of year-over-year growth, a streak that began in November 2025.
From September, however, wholesale fell 28.9% to the lowest level since February, when the factory shipped 58,599 vehicles.
Domestic volume has now fallen year over year for five straight months, after a 22.5% rise in May, CPCA data show.
A Sharper Version of a Familiar Swing
Tesla typically ships most of its exports in the first month of each quarter and supplies the domestic market more heavily later in it. That pattern was far more pronounced this October.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, Tesla China’s domestic volume was 26,006 in October, 73,145 in November and 93,843 in December, while exports fell from 35,491 to 13,555 and then 3,328, according to CPCA.
Matching last year’s fourth-quarter domestic total of 192,994 would require 184,177 domestic units in November and December, 17,189 more than the 166,988 Tesla delivered into China in the same two months of 2025.
Over the first 10 months, Tesla China wholesaled 810,889 vehicles, up 21.4% from a year earlier, according to CPCA’s monthly data. Exports more than doubled, up 101.3% to 420,984, or 51.9% of the total, compared with 31.3% a year earlier. Domestic volume fell 15.0% to 389,905.
October’s figure pushed cumulative exports above domestic volume for the year. Through September, domestic sales had led by 381,088 to 361,972.
Incentives
Tesla China moved to support demand on October 30, cutting the minimum down payment on its zero-interest loans for the Model 3 and Model Y to 39,900 yuan ($6,000) from 79,900 yuan ($12,000), according to its promotions page. Buyers can choose terms of one to five years.
A second option keeps the 39,900-yuan down payment and moves another 39,900 yuan into a final balloon payment after five years. On that plan, a rear-wheel-drive Model Y at its 259,500-yuan ($38,900) cash price works out to about 2,995 yuan ($400) a month over 60 months.
The Model Y L, the six-seat version of the SUV, requires a minimum down payment of 59,900 yuan ($9,000). The offer applies to orders placed through November 30, requires approval from one of Tesla’s partner lenders and does not cover Performance variants.
Tesla reshaped its cash incentives at the same time. The limited-time reduction on the Model 3’s final payment rose to 10,000 yuan ($1,500) from 5,000 yuan ($700), while the Model Y reduction, which also covers the Model Y L, fell to 4,000 yuan ($600) from 7,000 yuan ($1,000).
The promotions page no longer lists the 8,000-yuan ($1,200) Model 3 insurance subsidy that Tesla offered alongside its previous cash discounts.
Based on list prices of 235,500 yuan for the rear-wheel-drive Model 3 and 263,500 yuan for the rear-wheel-drive Model Y, cash buyers now pay 225,500 yuan ($33,800) and 259,500 yuan. Both are 3,000 yuan ($400) more than under the previous offers, counting the insurance subsidy on the Model 3.
At the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, which opened on November 5, Tesla said the Shanghai factory’s parts localization rate had risen to 98%.
Shanghai-made cars have also faced obstacles abroad. In October, Tesla halted Model 3 orders in Canada over an import quota.
CPCA Sees Exports Pulled Forward
CPCA described October as a peak season without peak demand. “The traditional ‘Silver October’ fell seriously short,” it said.
The association said “exports surpassing domestic demand” had shored up automakers’ wholesale volumes and profits, and that the export surge showed exports “brought forward in timing and overdrawn in volume.”
“Expectations of a cut in the export tax rebate rate and tightening overseas tariff windows have combined as incentives, bringing some orders forward for delivery,” CPCA said. “This lifts short-term export data while drawing down export momentum for the first quarter of next year.”
CPCA expects exports to cool gradually in November, with shipments for overseas Christmas demand concentrated before the middle of the month. It said the export boost to wholesale volumes is temporary and “should not be extrapolated linearly” into a trend.
