Credit: X @Teslaconomics

Tesla Earnings Preview: Robotaxi, $25k Model, 4680 Cells, and more

A few days before the Tesla earnings call — certainly one of the most expected ever — there are over 2,100 questions submitted by retail and institutional shareholders.

The company will publish its financial results for the first quarter of the year after market close on Tuesday, April 23.

Among the inquiries in the Say Platform, shareholders are particularly interested in updates regarding Tesla‘s next-generation platform, its progress in the Robotaxi development, FSD, and the ramp up of the 4680 cells.

As of the latest count, over 7,500 shareholders, representing 6.55 million shares, have submitted questions to management in the Say Technologies platform.

Among the most voted questions, the 4680 cells topic is leading followed by an updated on the Optimus project and an update on Tesla’s full self driving (FSD) technology as the company prepares to unveil its Robotaxi in August.

1. What is the status of 4680? What is the current output?
2. What is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?
3. What is Tesla’s current assessment of the pathway toward regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US, and how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?
4. Following Tesla’s Robotaxi unveil on 8/8, what is the realistic timeline for launching a revenue generating robotaxi network?
5. What is gating the production ramp at Lathrop? Where do you see the Megapack run rate by the end of the year?
6. What is the progress on the cheaper next generation vehicle?
7. Can we make FSD transfer permanent?(until FSD is fully delivered / Level 5 autonomy)
8. Have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?
Source: Say Platform as of April 19, 9AM ET

4680 Cells

The top-voted question, currently tallying 1,100 votes and representing 3.2 million shares, seeks insights into the development status and specifics of Tesla’s 4680 battery cells.

NEVER MISS AN UPDATE

Earlier this year, on January 24, Tesla said it was “running one production line and one assembly line” with “four more to be installed in the third quarter” adding that it expected “to ramp order from our suppliers”.

At the time, the world’s largest EV manufacturer said the 4680 production was “ahead of the ramp, with weeks of finished cells in inventory”. Six weeks later, in mid March, Tesla said it produced over 1,000 Cybertrucks’ worth of 4680 cells at its Giga Texas.

Given that each Cybertruck uses 1,366 4680 cells, Tesla produced in that week 1.366 million 4680 cells.

Robotaxi + $25k Model

According to three sources and company messages seen by Reuters in early April, Tesla was abandoning its plan of launching the $25,000 model. Yet, Tesla‘s CEO Elon Musk quickly dismissed the report without specifying any further details.

Later in the day, Elon Musk announced that Tesla is set to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi on August 8th which is expected to be constructed upon Tesla’s next-generation vehicle platform.

Two weeks ago, Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen commented on the rumors saying “I would just say stay tuned. Don’t always believe what you read”.

Since then, it became one of the main topics around shareholders and enthusiasts in what sense the report was false and if the $25,000 model was cancelled or deprioritised as the company shifts focus to the autonomous driving technology.

Earlier this Friday, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives released a new note saying the Model 2 versus Robotaxi debate “has taken on a life of its own” adding that investors expect that Tesla CEO Elon Musk announces the Model 2 “in the next 12 to 18 months”.

Also Deutsche Bank analyst Emanuel Rosner, mention on Thursday the “high likelihood” of Model 2 push-out and the company’s shift in strategic priority to Robotaxi.

According to Rosner, the firm’s Buy rating was contingent on Tesla’s next-generation vehicle that was expected to arrive late next year.

On Friday morning, Tesla’s stock reached a new 15-month low at $145.05 per share during pre-market trading coinciding with a market capitalization falling below $480 billion.

Earlier this week, Tesla introducedits 0 percent interest financing program to the German market.

The incentive, launched in China earlier this month, is now available for Model Y Long Range Dual Motor or Performance variants in the German market. The Model Y Performance begins at €59,990, with the Long Range dual motor variant available at €54,990.

The world’s largest EV maker issued an email on Monday to all employees announcing a >10% reduction in its global staff representing more than 14,000 employees.

Tesla recently reported the production of 433,371 vehicles, with 386,783 delivered, falling short of Wall Street’s expectation of 431,000 units delivered.

Cláudio Afonso founded CARBA in early 2021 and launched the news blog EV later that year. Following a 1.5-year hiatus, he relaunched EV in April 2024. In late 2024, he also started AV, a blog dedicated to the autonomous vehicle industry.