Cantor Fitzgerald released on Monday a new research note previewing Tesla‘s second quarter earnings results. The company will report on Wednesday, after the market closes.
The analyst Andres Sheppard lowered the revenue forecast by nearly 12.9% from $24.1 billion to about $21 billion, “to reflect second quarter vehicle deliveries and a reduction in energy generation and storage revenue.”
Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles in the April-June period, down both sequentially and year over year, triggering mixed reactions from analysts.
Despite the lower numbers, Cantor did not change its 2025 and 2026 annual revenue and EPS (earnings per share) estimates.
However, Sheppard expects Tesla to provide an update to its annual automotive sales and energy storage/deployment guidance.
The company has previously said it planned its annual deliveries to “return to growth” after delivering 1,789,226 vehicles in 2024.
To reach its guidance, Tesla needs to deliver more than 1,068,423 units in the second half of the year.
Sheppard had stated in the previous note that Cantor remained “bullish ahead of the introduction of lower-priced vehicles and the rollout of Robotaxi.”
The firm expects Tesla to give an updated timeline for its lower-cost vehicle, “previously targeted” for the first half of 2025 — a goal that was not met.
Sheppard also aims to question Tesla on vehicle demand to be expected in the second half and on what impact the EV maker expects from tariffs.
On the earnings call, scheduled for Wednesday after the market close, Cantor is aiming for an update “on the ramp up of its robotaxi fleet in Texas” and on the “timeline for California and Arizona.”
Last week, the company expanded the geofenced area of its robotaxi service in Austin, doubling the original service zone introduced in late June.
Over the weekend, Musk wrote on X that the service will be arriving in San Francisco “as soon as the regulators approve” it, adding that “they are being quite reasonable.”
The analyst highlighted a few key questions for Tesla in the upcoming earnings call, including plans to (further) expand in Austin, next steps to launch robotaxi in both California and Arizona and a more concrete timeline for the FSD rollout in Europe.
Also on Sunday, Musk said that Tesla is still “awaiting regulatory approval, hopefully soon” in China and Europe.
Cantor continues to “see Tesla‘s Robotaxi segment as a software-as-a-service, high-margin model,” expecting that the EV maker has “the ability to rapidly scale following commercialization.”
“We continue to believe that Tesla will capture a significant share of the autonomous driving and ride-sharing industries,” Sheppard added.
The analyst cited the launch of the Semi truck as one of the potential catalysts. According to Sheppard, the company expects the Semi truck to start mass-production in the second half of 2026, with commercialization “this decade.”
Another catalyst listed was the launch of the Cybercab next year.
The company unveiled the Cybercab and Robovan models late last year, estimating production to start in 2026 and the price to be below $30,000.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $355 price target on the EV maker ahead of the earnings results, which implies an upside potential of 7.7% based on Friday’s close at $329.65.
Tesla is trading 1.5% higher at $334.52 on Monday’s pre-market session. Year to date, the stock plunged 18.4%, despite having surged 31.1% in the past twelve months.
