UBS upgraded Rivian to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ on Monday, calling a slide in the shares a buying opportunity ahead of a turn in R2 production and gross margins, returning to a rating the Swiss bank dropped in February 2024.
Analyst Joseph Spak kept his price target at $17, which implies about 40% upside from Friday’s close of $12.16. Rivian shares rose 6.8% to $12.94 in early trading.
The call is the sixth rating change UBS has made on Rivian since it began covering the stock in September 2023. The bank has rated the stock a ‘Sell’ twice over that period, and its price target has ranged from $8 to $24.
“We see the recent selloff (-19% over the past month vs. S&P500 -1%) as a buying opportunity ahead of an inflection in R2 ramp and gross margins,” Spak wrote in a note to clients.
He said initial demand for the R2 “looks solid,” which “bodes well for when more trim levels come out,” and that Rivian should see a positive inflection in automotive gross margin as the midsize SUV ramps.
“Management expects to exit 2026 with a positive auto GM% aided by R2. This likely means in 1Q27, the company should be able to show a positive figure for this metric,” he wrote.
That is UBS’s reading of a narrower pledge. “We expect that R2 will help us achieve a positive automotive gross margin exit rate for the year,” Interim CFO Derek Mulvey said on Rivian’s earnings call on Thursday. Asked whether that meant a positive fourth quarter, he said Rivian intends to exit the quarter at an automotive gross profit, “so I would not expect the full quarter.”
Spak asked on the same call for the R2’s contribution margin before launch costs, saying it would show “what, for lack of a better term, a mature gross margin would be.”
Spak also pointed to Rivian’s software and services business, which he said “is helping fund growth,” and to Autonomy+, its paid driver-assistance package, as the company prepares to offer point-to-point driving.
“Autonomy+ may end up being one of the few Tesla FSD (which just showed 75% attached rate in NA) competitors in the US,” he wrote, comparing it with Tesla‘s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system.
Tesla said in its third-quarter update that FSD attach rates reached “over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America.”
Spak named an Autonomy day in December and a customer launch in early 2027 as possible catalysts. Rivian’s Autonomy and AI Day is on December 9. The company plans a limited Point to Point release later this year, followed by “a general release to all Autonomy+ subscribers in 2027,” Founder and Chief Executive Officer RJ Scaringe said on the call.
On funding, UBS said total available and targeted future capital stands at $13 billion. The figure is Rivian’s own. Mulvey put it at “approximately $13 billion” including expected capital from Uber, Volkswagen and an Energy Department loan, “all of which are subject to certain conditions.”
“We don’t see a need for capital before 2029,” Spak wrote, adding that Rivian “is and will likely remain a volatile stock, but we see sentiment improving.”
The upgrade leaves UBS among the more constructive brokers after a mixed round of post-earnings notes. Evercore ISI reiterated an ‘Outperform’ rating with an $18 target, and Needham cut its target to $18 while keeping a ‘Buy.’
Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $13 with an ‘Underweight’ rating, and Mizuho cut its target to $10 from $13 with an ‘Underperform’ rating. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target to $16 and stayed at ‘Neutral.’
UBS’s $17 target matches the one Jefferies set when it upgraded the stock on Friday.
What the Q3 Showed
The upgrade follows third-quarter results that showed both sides of that argument. Rivian’s revenue topped $2 billion for the first time, rising 38% to $2.155 billion, as deliveries climbed 46% to 19,248 in the R2’s first full quarter on sale.
Scaringe said conversion of R2 Launch Edition reservations remained above Rivian’s expectations, and the company hosted more than 103,000 R1 and R2 demo drives in the quarter.
The automotive segment still posted a gross loss of $80 million, a margin of minus 5%, after about $120 million of extra cost from the R2 ramp, the company said. Software and services delivered a $256 million gross profit, a 42% margin, more than covering the car losses.
Rivian raised its 2026 outlook to 67,000 to 70,000 deliveries and narrowed its expected adjusted EBITDA loss to $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion, helped by regulatory credits and a tariff refund.
The stock fell to a 52-week low of $11.38 on the day of the results before Jefferies upgraded it to ‘Buy‘ the next morning. “The recent ~30% correction creates a new entry point,” Jefferies wrote. Even with Monday’s gain, the shares are down about 34% this year.
From Buy to Sell
UBS started coverage at ‘Neutral’ in September 2023, as part of a 13-stock launch of US auto coverage, and turned bullish within weeks. On October 10, 2023, Spak upgraded Rivian to ‘Buy’ and trimmed his target to $24 from $26, describing the sell-off that followed a convertible bond sale as a buying opportunity.
“With the raise out of the way, the market can refocus on improving fundamentals,” he wrote at the time, forecasting a tenfold rise in Rivian’s unit sales by 2030.
That call lasted just over four months. On February 23, 2024, after Rivian guided to flat production for the year and announced job cuts, UBS cut the stock two notches to Sell and slashed its target to $8 from $24. The shares fell 12% to $10.07 that day.
In March 2024, UBS raised its target to $9 from $8 after Rivian unveiled the R2 but kept its Sell rating, citing the company’s cash needs.
On April 15, 2024, the day Rivian closed at a record low of $8.40, UBS moved back to ‘Neutral‘ with a $9 target. “We believe the near-term risk/reward is more balanced at current levels,” Spak wrote.
The target then jumped to $17 in late June 2024, after Volkswagen Group agreed to invest up to $5 billion in Rivian through a software joint venture. UBS trimmed it to $16 after second-quarter results that August.
A Year on the Sidelines
UBS stayed at Neutral through 2025, moving its target between $11 and $14. It raised the target to $14 from $11 in January, cut it to $12 in April and lifted it to $13 in May, according to Price Target, EV‘s sister publication that archives Wall Street analyst research on the EV, AI and semiconductor industries.
“Stock ultimately hinges on R2 and while launch remains on schedule, there is a bit of an air pocket for the stock until an AI day in the fall and getting closer to R2 launch in 1H26,” Spak wrote that May.
A survey-based note later that month found that only about 5% of US battery-electric vehicle owners or buyers would consider a Rivian, and estimated that about 59% of R1s were leased in 2024.
In August, UBS cut its target to $12 after second-quarter margins disappointed. “The loss of reg. credits (100% margin) hurts and loss of consumer credits could lower R2 demand and/or price,” Spak wrote then. He moved the target back to $13 in October.
The AI Sell Call
UBS turned bearish again on January 14, 2026, downgrading Rivian to ‘Sell‘ even as it lifted its target to $15. The stock had gained 15% since Rivian’s Autonomy and AI Day on December 11, 2025.
“In our view, most of the AI related news is ‘out’,” Spak wrote, adding that UBS’s 2026 and 2027 sales forecasts were 16% and 19% below consensus. The shares fell 7.2% to $17.50 that day.
The Sell rating lasted a month. On February 13, after Rivian guided to 62,000 to 67,000 deliveries for 2026, UBS upgraded the stock to ‘Neutral‘ with a $16 target, again citing a more balanced risk/reward.
“We have been, and continue to be, excited about the product, the product pipeline and the brand. We just had concerns that valuation had gotten ahead of itself,” Spak wrote. Rivian had closed at $14.00 the day before, 26% below where it stood before the downgrade.
In April, UBS questioned Rivian’s plan to license its software and electrical architecture to other carmakers. “We have a difficult time seeing this platform model gaining traction near-term,” the bank wrote. It raised its target to $17 in July after Rivian’s second-quarter deliveries beat guidance, days after the stock’s 2026 closing high of $20.14 on July 6.
