Rivian raised its 2026 forecasts for deliveries and earnings for the second time this year and cut planned capital spending again. Its revised outlook leans on regulatory credits and a tariff refund as well as higher volumes.
The EV maker now expects to deliver 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles, up from 65,000 to 70,000, it said in its third-quarter earnings presentation on Thursday. It cited “the production and delivery outlook for Q4 2026.”
It forecast an adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion, $100 million better at the midpoint than the $1.80 billion to $2.00 billion it guided in July.
Capital spending is now expected at $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion, $300 million less at the midpoint than the $1.70 billion to $1.80 billion forecast in July.
What Drove the Change
Rivian attributed the better loss forecast to “better than expected revenue related to regulatory credits, an IEEPA tariff refund receivable in Q3, and an expected increase in delivery volumes.”
Two of those three drivers are not about selling more vehicles. Rivian sells regulatory credits to carmakers that fall short of emissions rules. The company earned about $81 million from them in the third quarter, against roughly $1 million a year earlier.
That runs against what management told analysts in July. Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough said on the July 30 call that Rivian had $164 million of regulatory credits in the first half and that “the absence of regulatory credits in second half versus first half” was the main reason the second-half loss would be steeper.
The tariff refund relates to duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. In July, McDonough said Rivian had sized those tariffs “in the tens of millions of dollars” and had booked a receivable for “roughly half of the total.” The shareholder deck did not say how much it booked in the third quarter.
The July upgrade had been partly offset by “increasing raw material, memory, and logistics costs,” according to the second-quarter presentation.
The third-quarter commentary did not mention cost pressures. Founder and CEO RJ Scaringe said this month that memory prices were adding “many hundreds of dollars” to the cost of a vehicle with a lot of capability.
The Path Through 2026
Rivian set its first 2026 forecast on February 12 in its fourth-quarter shareholder letter, guiding to 62,000 to 67,000 deliveries, an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.80 billion to $2.10 billion and capital spending of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. It kept all three on April 30.
It raised deliveries by 3,000 units in early July and adjusted the other two measures on July 30.
Against February, the delivery midpoint is now 4,000 units higher at 68,500. The loss midpoint has improved by $150 million to $1.80 billion, and the range has narrowed from $300 million to $100 million.
Planned capital spending is $550 million lower at the midpoint, a cut of 27.5%.
What the Q4 Must Deliver
Rivian delivered 41,807 vehicles in the first nine months. The new range therefore implies about 25,200 to 28,200 deliveries in the fourth quarter. That would beat the third-quarter record of 19,248 by 31% to 46%, and it would be 2.6 to 2.9 times the 9,745 delivered a year earlier.
The volume depends on the R2’s second production shift in Normal, Illinois, which Rivian said started in the third quarter. Chief Operations Officer Javier Varela said in July that the second shift would add volume “in quarter four.”
The earnings forecast points the other way. Rivian’s adjusted EBITDA loss was $1.286 billion over nine months, so the new range implies a fourth-quarter loss of about $464 million to $564 million. That compares with $435 million in the third quarter and $465 million a year earlier.
McDonough said in July that research and development spending would step up in the second half, “predominantly related to GPU sourcing for our autonomy training.” The presentation did not say whether Rivian expects more regulatory credits in the fourth quarter.
Spending Deferred, Not Cut
Rivian attributed the lower capital spending forecast to “timing of spend,” which suggests the money moves into later periods rather than disappearing. Capital spending was $1.100 billion over nine months, leaving $300 million to $400 million for the fourth quarter, against $366 million in the third.
Much of Rivian’s investment is going into its Georgia plant, financed in part by an Energy Department loan of up to $4.5 billion. The company still expects the first draw by early 2027.
Under the loan’s terms, it must pre-fund equity and reserve accounts before the first advance and keep at least $2 billion of consolidated liquidity.
Rivian ended September with $5.502 billion of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments after burning $1.124 billion of free cash flow in the third quarter.
The presentation also reordered Rivian’s strategic priorities. “Drive towards profitability” now comes first, followed by operational efficiency, “technology focus” and demand generation.
In February, April and July, Rivian listed “technology leadership” first. Profitability was third in February and last in April and July, according to the company’s filings.
