Rivian shares jumped 9.4% to $12.53 in premarket trading on Friday after the EV maker’s third-quarter results and an upgrade to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ at Jefferies, which returned the stock to the rating the firm started it on in 2024 and dropped in May 2025.
The shares were up $1.05 from Thursday’s close of $11.45 as of 6:20 a.m. ET, after trading as high as $12.79 in extended trading. Rivian raised its 2026 delivery and earnings outlook after the market closed on Thursday.
The stock had fallen to $11.38 during Thursday’s regular session, a new 52-week low, before closing at $11.45, down 1.9%. That close valued Rivian at about $16.6 billion.
Jefferies kept its price target at $17, which implies about 48% upside from Thursday’s close and about 36% from Friday’s premarket price.
“We upgrade Rivian shares to Buy. Q3 accelerated towards +ve Auto gross margin,” Jefferies analyst Owen Paterson wrote in a note published on Price Target, EV‘s sister publication that archives Wall Street analyst research on the EV, AI and semiconductor industries.
“Modest guidance upgrade continues a streak of +ve surprises in execution and capital discipline while we see funding mostly secured through the cash burn period,” he said.
“The recent ~30% correction creates a new entry point,” Paterson wrote. He named the company’s Autonomy and AI event on December 9 and the launch of Volkswagen’s ID. 1 in the first quarter as “critical events to showcase progress on Point-to-Point and other potential EE/SDV deals.”
The upgrade caps two and a half years of Jefferies coverage that tracked Rivian from its software promise through a demand slowdown, a costly R2 ramp and repeated share sales.
The path
Jefferies started covering Rivian in March 2024 with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $16 target, in the same week the company unveiled the R2.
Analyst Philippe Houchois framed it as the US startup most like Tesla. “Rivian has looked closest to Tesla in spirit, with its own software stack, strong brand identity,” he wrote at the time.
Jefferies cut Rivian to ‘Hold’ in May 2025, keeping its target at $16.
The firm kept the ‘Hold’ rating for the next 17 months while nudging its target up from $14, the level it had cut to by early 2026, according to Price Target and other public reports.
It raised the target to $15 last March after fourth-quarter results. “Q4 delivered further ‘on-time’ and ‘on-budget’ progress towards the launch of R2,” Paterson wrote in a note at the time.
Jefferies raised the target to $16 in June, saying software and autonomy deals, including with Volkswagen, would continue to fund Rivian’s development.
That note followed investor meetings Jefferies hosted with Scaringe and Vice President of Investor Relations Chip Newcom. Jefferies then expected about 10,900 second-quarter deliveries, including roughly 500 R2s, and an automotive gross margin of minus 25% because of launch costs.
Rivian beat both. It delivered 12,194 vehicles in the second quarter, and its automotive gross margin was minus 3%.
Jefferies lifted the target to $17 on July 7, the day after Rivian announced a share sale that sent the stock down 18%. The firm said the offering “significantly improves the funding profile” but warned that “cash burn will remain significant through 2027-28 on production ramp and capacity build,” according to its July note.
“Details on the auto sales beat are limited but we assume a mix of EDV, ZEV income and R2, which validates a credible path to reaching positive gross margin by YE,” Jefferies wrote.
Houchois questioned management on the July 30 earnings call, asking how Rivian’s robotaxi partnership with Uber compared with rivals’ and why its gross margin had not fallen further during the R2 ramp.
What Changed This Quarter
Friday’s upgrade rests on the same test Jefferies set in July, a path to positive gross margin by year-end, and on funding. The firm now sees funding “mostly secured through the cash burn period,” where in March it warned that leverage “may soon become a challenge.”
Rivian’s automotive segment still posted an $80 million gross loss in the third quarter, narrower than the $130 million a year earlier. The company raised the bottom of its 2026 delivery forecast to 67,000 and improved its adjusted EBITDA loss outlook by $100 million at the midpoint.
The $17 target matches the level Jefferies had in September 2024. Rivian shares closed at $11.45 on Thursday, down 41.9% from $19.71 at the end of 2025, after hitting a 14-month low this month.
At $12.50 in premarket trading, the stock was still down 36.6% for the year, and 45% below its 52-week high of $22.69.
The December 9 event is Rivian’s second Autonomy and AI Day, where it has promised updates on its self-driving roadmap.
How Other Analysts Reacted
Not every firm moved with Jefferies on Friday. Two cut their targets while keeping their ratings.
Evercore ISI kept its ‘Outperform’ rating and $18 target. Analyst Chris McNally said Rivian “delivered a 3Q beat,” with adjusted EBITDA of minus $435 million against a consensus of minus $591 million, and an adjusted loss of 48 cents a share against 64 cents expected.
“The updated guide puts Q4 midpoint ~$60MM worse than 4Q cons, but overall – a positive print / step in the right direction,” McNally wrote in a note that Price Target had not yet published as of early Friday. He added that Point-to-Point’s limited rollout “remains on track for later this year” as Rivian “attempts to close the gap to TSLA FSD.”
Needham kept its ‘Buy’ rating but cut its target to $18 from $23 in a note on Price Target, lowering the valuation multiple it applies to reflect higher interest rates.
“RIVN cleared the key concern entering the print, with R2 (not commercial vans) becoming its best selling vehicle,” analyst Chris Pierce wrote. He said Rivian “reiterated a positive automotive gross margin exit rate to FY26,” but that “the broader point to point release looks to have shifted into 2027.”
Cantor Fitzgerald kept its ‘Neutral’ rating and lowered its target to $16 from $19 in a note on Price Target, saying it is waiting “for further granularity on Autonomy Monetization and Chip development, and material ramp-up of the R2 platform.”
Cantor said revenue of $2.155 billion beat a consensus of about $2.056 billion. It also said management does not expect additional regulatory credit revenue through the end of 2027. The firm said Rivian is targeting a Premium R2 trim under $55,000 at the end of this year and a Standard trim under $47,000 next year.
With the three changes, Jefferies’ $17 target sits below Evercore’s and Needham’s $18 and above Cantor’s $16.
