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Mizuho analyst conservatively reduces NIO’s Q2 and 2022 Delivery Estimates

Written by Cláudio Afonso | | LinkedIn | Twitter

In a new note released on Friday, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the firm’s estimates on NIO, Tesla, and Rivian due to Shanghai shutdowns and supply chain constraints. Rakesh says the team expects the upcoming models (NIO ET5 and NIO ES7) to help improve the demand alongside China’s stimulus for the new energy vehicles. The 138,000 units given by Mizuho represent an average of 11,500 vehicles delivered per month.

“Despite elevated macro risks, BEV could see strong 2H ramps as China re-opens and demand improves, with BEVs potentially up >55% 2H/1H,” Rakesh wrote.

“For NIO, we believe new launch ET7 is ramping well, with ET5 and ES7 launches in 3Q on track. China’s stimulus could also spur additional EV demand into 2H. We believe improving chip supply and capacity at the foundries in 2H (with handset-PC-consumer weakness) should be a driver for improving production, though offset by some consumer buying weakness,” the analyst added. We conservatively lower JunQ from 24k to 23k, the lower end of guidance range, and C22E from 142k to 138k.”

The analyst lowered the firm’s price target on NIO shares from $80 to $70 while maintaining a Buy rating.


On the first day of June, the EV maker reported 7,024 vehicles delivered in May showing an increase year-over-year and also from the previous month, when delivered 5,074 units. On NIO App, William Li answered customers and enthusiasts saying “Thank you all! We will continue to work hard in June”.

According to a report by Sina News, a NIO ET7 model fell from the third floor of a parking lot on Wednesday in Jiading (Shanghai) causing two deaths. The two digital cockpit testers were performing operational tests on the vehicle at the time of the accident. Commenting via its Weibo account, the EV maker said that “it can be preliminarily confirmed that this is an accident and has nothing to do with the vehicle itself“.

Earlier this week, NIO announced opening the orders of the 2022 ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The upgraded versions were unveiled last week during NIO’s product launch event with the arrival time to NIO Houses expected for July and the beginning of the deliveries for August.

Last week, the company hosted a product launch event where it launched a new medium five-seater SUV with an NT2.0 platform, NIO ES7. The model was rated a five-star safety of C-NCAP and Euro NCAP tests, a Cd of 0.263, and a starting price of RMB 468,000 ($69,700 USD).

Written by Cláudio Afonso | | LinkedIn | Twitter