Written by Cláudio Afonso | LinkedIn | X
Bank of America (BofA) Securities analyst Ming Hsun Lee on Friday slightly lowered the price target on Nio, hours after the Shanghai-based electric vehicle maker reported fourth-quarter earnings.
The analyst cut the price target to $4.90 from $5.00 and maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. The revised target implies an upside of about 9% from Friday’s closing price.
Nio reported gross profit of 2.31 billion yuan ($316.3 million) for the fourth quarter of 2024, up 80.5% from a year earlier and 15.0% from the prior quarter. Vehicle margin was 13.1%, compared with 11.9% a year earlier and flat from the third quarter.
For the first quarter of 2025, the EV maker expects vehicle deliveries of between 41,000 and 43,000 unit which would represent a year-on-year increase of about 36.4% to 43.1% and between 13,945 and 15,945 vehicles in March.
The company delivered 13,863 units in January and 13,192 in February under its Nio and Onvo brands, bringing total deliveries to 27,055 as of February 28.
Total revenue is forecast to be between 12.37 billion yuan ($1.69 billion) and 12.86 billion yuan ($1.76 billion), up 24.8% to 29.8% from a year earlier.
Following the earnings release, Lee wrote: “Management guided 41-43k units of vehicle delivery (+36% to +43% Year over Year) and RMB12.4-12.9bn (+25% to +30% Year over Year). Accordingly, we raise our 2025/26E volume sales estimates by 0.4%/1.7% and lower our 2025/26E GPM estimates by 0.2ppt/0.6ppt.”
Introducing revisions to profitability forecasts, Lee added: “Factoring in 4Q24 results, we adjust our 2025/26E non-GAAP net loss by +3%/-3%. As a result and some changes to our valuation inputs, we trim our PO to USD4.9/HKD38 (from USD5.0/HKD39).”
“We reiterate our Neutral rating, as we expect the positives from volume growth in 2025 to be partially offset by slower margin expansion and high OPEX,” he added.
The company reported a 15.2% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter, while net losses widened to 7.11 billion yuan ($0.98 billion), and vehicle margin rose year over year to 13.1% from 11.9%, remaining flat compared to the previous quarter.
Earlier on Friday, also Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao released a new research note with an Overweight rating and a $5.90 price target implying an upside potential of 31%.
Nio said in the earnings report it expects its financial resources to be sufficient to support its operations over “the next twelve months.”
