EV sales are growing rapidly in many markets as countries try to cut their dependence on oil, and China has accelerated the shift, International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol told China’s state news agency.
Electric vehicles now account for about 60% of new car sales in China, Birol said. He added that their spread is transforming the auto industry, changing the structure of global energy consumption and will have a profound effect on future energy markets.
Birol spoke to the Chinese state news agency on the sidelines of the Berlin Global Dialogue, held earlier this week.
Chinese data puts the share higher in recent months. New energy vehicles, which include fully electric cars and plug-in hybrids, made up 67.0% of China’s passenger car retail sales in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA).
Retail sales of such vehicles fell 16.7% from a year earlier to 1.084 million, while the overall market fell 28.0% to 1.618 million. The share rises because combustion car sales are falling faster.
The share hit a record 65.2% in August amid an oil price surge. The CPCA called a weekly reading of 70.3% in early September “unusually high.”
The IEA’s Global EV Outlook 2026, published in May, said EVs made up nearly 55% of China’s car sales in 2025. It forecast almost 60% for 2026, and noted that the monthly share passed 60% for the first time in April.
Oil’s Impact
Birol said reducing dependence on oil is an important factor behind EV growth, and that the trend is evident not only in Europe but also in Brazil, Australia and Southeast Asia.
The latest data bears that out. Fully electric cars took 22.7% of new car registrations in the European Union in the first nine months of 2026, up from 16.1% a year earlier, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA).
Registrations reached 1,931,465, while petrol car registrations fell 19.1% and their share dropped to 21.2%.
In Australia, fully electric cars outsold petrol models for the second month running in September. They took 24.2% of the market with 26,287 sales, up 117.7% year on year, according to Electric Vehicle Council and VFACTS data.
BYD was the country’s second-best-selling brand that month, behind Toyota.
In Brazil, electrified vehicles, a category that includes hybrids, reached 16.8% of sales, and the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association (ABVE) said in April that the market would “certainly surpass 300,000 vehicles” in 2026.
Southeast Asian EV sales more than doubled in 2025 to nearly 20% of the market, led by Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, according to the IEA. Latin American sales grew 75%, led by Brazil and Mexico, and are forecast to rise 45% in 2026.
Fuel prices are changing the economics. Based on April oil prices, annual fuel savings from driving an EV in the European Union rose 35% compared with 2025, the IEA said. It estimated the global EV fleet avoided about 1.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2025.
Chinese Brands
China produced nearly 75% of the world’s electric cars in 2025, according to the IEA. Its EV exports doubled to more than 2.5 million, and Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global electric car sales.
Exports have accelerated this year as the home market shrinks. China’s new energy vehicle exports reached 4 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 130% year on year, while domestic sales of such vehicles fell 10.6%, according to a September snapshot by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), based on official data.
Exporters such as BYD have leaned on overseas markets as domestic sales weaken.
China’s own oil use is falling with the shift. Crude oil imports fell 15.3% in the first nine months and 21.5% in September, CREA said.
The Oil Shock
Birol said the world has faced an unprecedented energy security challenge since March. He cited disruptions to supplies from western Siberia to Europe and to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to Asia and beyond.
Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe had already been sharply curtailed since 2022.
The IEA agreed on March 11 to make 400 million barrels of emergency oil stocks available, its largest coordinated release. Member countries’ commitments totaled 411.9 million barrels by March 15, according to the agency.
Birol said the release helped calm markets after an initial price surge, but that strategic stock releases can only cushion supply disruptions, not provide a lasting solution.
The shock is still hitting fuel demand. The IEA’s October 14 Oil Market Report forecast global oil demand falling by 2.6 million barrels a day this year to 102.4 million barrels a day, as “restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices” hit consumption.
North Sea Dated Brent averaged $116.89 a barrel in September, up $26.17 from August. Global observed inventories were 509 million barrels below their pre-war, end-February level at the end of September.
EVs and the power system
Birol cited rapid growth in renewable energy, rising EV sales, a modest increase in coal use and renewed momentum behind nuclear power as key trends since the war in the Middle East began. Solar is the leading source of growth, followed by wind, he said, and biofuel use is rising partly because of higher diesel and gasoline prices.
EV charging is now adding to electricity demand. The IEA’s mid-year electricity update expects China’s power demand to grow 5.5% in 2026, driven by manufacturing and EV charging.
It forecasts solar output rising by around 600 terawatt-hours this year and renewables overtaking coal-fired generation, with coal supported by plants switching away from expensive gas.
What comes next
Globally, EV sales rose 20% to more than 20 million in 2025, about a quarter of new cars, and the IEA forecast 23 million, or 28%, in 2026. First-quarter sales fell about 8%, mainly because of weaker demand in China and the US, before the fuel price shock fed through to orders.
Birol also highlighted China’s role in energy cooperation. He recalled that the 16th APEC Energy Ministers’ Meeting, which opened in Beijing on September 10, discussed the energy crisis.
Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang proposed cooperation on green energy access, charging infrastructure and new energy storage, according to China’s foreign ministry.
The IEA is due to publish its World Energy Outlook 2026 on November 18.
