UBS reiterated on Tuesday its $190 price target on Tesla shares, following the results of a consumer survey on EV adoption promoted by the firm.
The price target implies a downside of 44% based on Monday’s close at about $339. As of the time of writing, the stock is surging nearly 5% and trading above $355.
The UBS Evidence Lab surveyed 10,500 participants, from which only 41% responded they were likely to consider a fully electric vehicle, down 5% from the previous year.
Only about 35% of surveyees believed EVs were affordable in comparison to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
The Zurich-based company also maintained its Sell rating on the stock, citing “declining Tesla interest” around the world.
In a new research note, analyst Joseph Spak stated that the brand is declining in the U.S., China and Europe, “though the reasons might be different by region.”
Regarding the United States, the analyst highlights “Tesla saturation” as the brand represents 48% of the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market.
According to Spak, “a limited vehicle lineup and affordability are concerns.”
In its quarterly shareholder deck last month, Tesla reiterated its “plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025.”
According to VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy, the upcoming model would resemble the company’s current lineup “in form and shape.” A week later, what seemed to be the cheaper model was seen on a drone flyover at the Fremont factory.
The UBS analyst noted that “intense competition” in China has Tesla being “no longer seen as the technology leader,” while in Europe the firm believes “there may have been brand damage from Musk’s political involvement.”
The Elon Musk-led brand’s sales dramatically plunged across several European markets since the beginning of 2025, with the old continent being its “weakest market,” according to the CEO.
At the same time, Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) brands, which are catching up to the U.S. brand’s figures in their domestic market, are expanding into several European countries.
Last week, Jato Dynamics data revealed that BYD outperformed Tesla‘s European sales for the first time regarding BEVs.
In 2024, the Chinese giant became the world’s best-selling NEV brand. In its home market, it sold over 1 million vehicles up to date, while the U.S. brand ranks right below with 192,500 units as of May 25.
According to the analyst, “Musk has indicated the value of Tesla is in AV (autonomous vehicles) and humanoid robots,” which “may be true.” However, “given the deteriorating outlook for the auto business, that means the implied valuation assigned to these ventures is already quite robust,” he added.
The U.S. brand is set to launch its ride-hailing service late next month in Austin, starting with 10 autonomous Model Ys in the first week. The driverless rides will have teleoperators supervising the vehicles remotely in the first phase.
UBS remains “cautious on Tesla stock,” analyst Joseph Spak said. He noted that, while understanding “there is enthusiasm over robotaxis and humanoid robots,” the auto business “faces mounting challenges,” including the potential removal of “California waiver.”
Last week, the U.S. Senate voted to revoke three vehicle emissions waivers in California granted under the Clean Air Act. The rules aimed for all new vehicle sales in the state to have zero emissions by 2035.
The U.S. House of Representatives also approved last week Donald Trump’s bill to eliminate clean energy incentives enacted under the Biden Administration, which includes the EV tax credit.
The Senate is yet to vote on the bill. If it is approved by the Congress, the credit will end on December 31, 2025.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reaffirmed on Tuesday an Overweight rating and $355.00 price target on Tesla shares. The price target implies an upside potential of 4.7%.
TD Cowen reiterated on Tuesday its price target of $330 on the company’s shares — implying a downside of nearly 2.7%. The firm kept a Buy rating on the stock.
As of the time of writing, Tesla is trading 5% higher at $356. The stock nearly doubled in the past twelve months, although it is still down year to date.
