Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target on Tesla by nearly $100 on Thursday, as the stock hit its highest level since January.
In a new research note, analyst Mark Delaney lifted the target to $395 from $300 while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares.
Goldman Sachs warned that if competition limits profits — citing the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) market in China as an example — and if Tesla fails to execute, “then there could be downside.”
Based on Wednesday’s closing price, the new price target still implies a downside of about 7%.
Following the price target hike, Tesla shares are trading nearly 2% higher on Thursday’s pre-market session at $433.
Citing the surge in the stock price and the delivery figures set to be reported earlier next month, Goldman Sachs believes Tesla shareholders are now eyeing three key points, including autonomy, the Optimius robot, and profit margins.
“The ability for Tesla to make progress with autonomy/robotaxis, especially when it can remove the safety observer from its robotaxis (as there is still a human present in the vehicles); 2) Progress with Optimus 3, and if it can meet its target to have a prototype around year-end and scale in 2026; 3) Profit margins and FCF, especially as IRA credits go away and in light of tariffs,” the analyst wrote.
Delaney wrote that Goldman expects robotaxis and robotics to contribute to Tesla‘s earnings in the long term.
“We remain Neutral rated on the stock. Longer term, we expect Tesla to grow its EPS driven in part by larger contributions from autonomy and robotics, although our base case expectation for profits in these areas is more measured than the company is targeting,” Delaney wrote.
“As we detail in this note, we estimate that its 2030 EPS could be ~$2-3 to ~$20 (although we acknowledge there are outcomes beyond these ranges), and what we consider to be a middle of the road type scenario implies ~$7-$9 of EPS in 2030 and an EPS CAGR of ~40-50%,” he added.
Goldman increased the price target on Tesla by nearly 32% as it lifts its earnings per share estimates.
“Given the move higher in market multiples more generally, as well as the growth rate we believe the business can support over the longer term, plus the increases we make to our forward EPS estimates, we raise our 12-month price target to $395 from $300,” Delaney wrote.
According to Goldman Sachs, profits may be constrained by competition, with the ADAS market in China cited as an example, and Tesla’s failure to execute could further add to the downside.
“If Tesla can have outsized share in areas such as humanoid robotics and autonomy, then there could be upside to our price target, although if competition limits profits (as is happening with the ADAS market in China) or Tesla does not execute well, then there could be downside,” the analyst concluded.
Tesla‘s board chair Robyn Denholm stated last week that Musk has returned to being “front and center at the company,” delivering “against really ambitious goals.”
The comments came as Tesla seeks shareholder approval for a new pay package for Musk, linking the potential payout to unprecedented growth targets such as a market capitalization of nearly $7.5 trillion.
