Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has released today a new Tesla note regarding the January U.S. sales and the comparison with General Motors and Ford.
“Most auto investors we speak still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford. We expect Tesla revenues to be larger than GM + Ford (combined) by 2027. The zero-sum game is hard to see today… should become obvious over the next 24 months.” — said the analyst Adam Jonas.
“Take a look at January US auto sales…. Tesla US market share was 4.0% on sales up 63% YoY vs. the broader market unit volume down 10% YoY.
For the full year we conservatively estimate Tesla’s US share will average 3.5%. We estimate the typical Tesla sold commands an average transaction price (ATP) of approximately $60k or roughly 30% above the US average ATP, implying an adjusted wallet share’ of 46%
Applying our Tesla N. American growth forecast through 2030 to our forecast of US SAAR, we estimate Tesla US unit share reaches 10% by the end of 2026 and nearly 18% by 2030. • We estimate Tesla share of US wallet should reach 10% by 2025 and 23% by 2030. • In a zero sum game in a low-growth auto market, if someone gains share, we believe there must be a group of share donors.
We estimate Tesla can gain well over 1,000 basis points of share by end of decade, implying some significant share donors along the way. For example, we estimate GM’s US market share (14.6% in the US in 2021) falls to 14% by 2025 and <12% by 2030.
We estimate Ford’s US market share drops from 12.5% in 2021 to just over 10% by 2030. We forecast Tesla’s share of US auto wallet (revenue share) to surpass GM by late 2026/earlv 2027. Tesla revenues surpass a $300bn run-rate by late 2026 which we estimate should be roughly equal to the global consolidated revenues of GM and Ford combined.”
Earlier today, and according to The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Tesla is adjusting more than 817,000 U.S. vehicles due to an audible alert may not activate when a vehicle starts and the driver has not buckled their seat belt.
NHTSA said Thursday the “some 2021-2022 Model S and Model X, 2017-2022 Model 3, and 2020-2022 Model Y vehicles fail to comply with a federal motor vehicle safety standard on “Occupant Crash Protection” because the audible chime does not activate. Tesla will perform an over-the-air (OTA) software update to address the issue.”
Tesla told NHTSA that as of Jan. 31 it was unaware of any crashes or injuries related to the issue.
Tesla registered 167,969 vehicles in Europe during 2021, an increase of 70.9% from 2020 and 51% up from 2019. During the year, Tesla sold 26,175 Tesla Model Y, 134 Tesla Model S and 230 Tesla Model X in the European Market.
Revenue rose 65% year over year in the quarter, while net income, at $2.32 billion, was up some 760%, according to Tesla’s statement. The company says they have successfully increased the number of FSD Beta vehicles from a couple of thousand in Q3 to nearly 60,000 vehicles in the US today.
“Our own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through 2022,” the company said.
Earlier this month, Tesla announced that deliveried 308,600 vehicles in Q4, setting a new record during the last Quarter. In 2021, Tesla delivered a total of 936,172 vehicles in 2021, crushing all the expectations.
During Q4 2020, the company delivered about 181,000 vehicles and Wall Street was looking for about 176,000 vehicles to be delivered at the time of the release. The result was about a 3% beat versus expectations. This quarter, Wall Street expectations were on 275,000 units, which means Tesla beat by more than 12%.