Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard said Rivian is likely to hold its long-awaited Autonomy Day in December, following a meeting last week with the company’s chief financial officer, Claire McDonough.
In a note to clients on Monday — despite Rivian not having communicated an official date — the firm expects the event to take place in December.
The EV maker had previously said in July that its AI and Autonomy Day would be held “later this year” to share more about its technology roadmap.
“Management continued to highlight its Rivian Autonomy Platform and emphasized that autonomy will be a big part of the focus over the next few years,” Sheppard said.
“We expect the company to make ongoing enhancements to its platform throughout 2026, and for the company to schedule an Autonomy Day later this year (we expect in December).”
Rivian’s second-generation vehicles feature a hands-free, eyes-on driving system for highway use.
Earlier this year, Rivian extended the free-trial of the ‘Autonomy Platform+‘ until “late 2025,” an upgrade from the standard (free) Rivian Autonomy Platform for Gen 2 vehicles.
At the Morgan Stanley 13th Laguna Conference last week, CEO RJ Scaringe said the company would soon expand to “hands-free everywhere,” increasing by “something like 50x” the number of roads where Rivian vehicles can operate autonomously.
He added that the roadmap also envisions “hands-free, eyes-off” capability in certain scenarios.
The company is guiding for deliveries of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles in 2025, after producing 49,476 and delivering 51,579 in 2024.
According to Sheppard, Rivian reaffirmed that third-quarter sales will be the strongest of the year as the $7,500 EV Tax Credit is ending by the end of the month.
Management also provided updates on the R2 model, which is scheduled to start production in the first half of 2026.
Rivian expects the R2 line to cost less than “half as much per unit to produce as the R1 line.”
Commissioning of the R2 line is slated for the third quarter of 2025, with validation of equipment and processes to follow, according to the note.
“Management is still targeting a starting price of ~$45,000 for the lowest trim, although we expect Rivian to first launch with a higher trim version initially,” Sheppard wrote.
If it happens, the approach will follow other brands such as Lucid, which began Gravity production with higher-end trims before scaling down from late this year onwards.
On the Volkswagen joint venture, now valued at $5.8 billion, McDonough said the capital will be distributed across six components.
Rivian received a $1 billion equity investment from Volkswagen on June 30 after meeting the first milestone and expects up to $2.5 billion of additional funding, including another $1 billion of equity in 2026, a $1 billion loan in October 2026, and about $460 million in equity tied to either January 2028 or the start of joint-vehicle production.
“We continue to view Rivian’s R2 line (1H26) as a meaningful catalyst, and one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point,” Sheppard wrote, adding that the company’s partnership with Amazon and its Volkswagen joint venture remain key strategic advantages.
Rivian shares slipped on Friday after Amazon confirmed it is piloting General Motors’ BrightDrop electric delivery vans, raising concerns about Rivian’s exclusive role in Amazon’s decarbonization strategy.
As of press time Monday, shares were up slightly at $13.50.
