Stifel reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating and $22 price target on Rivian on Monday, saying the EV maker’s third-quarter results and higher 2026 delivery guidance support its positive view and that orders for the R2 crossover are converting into sales faster than expected, according to the note archived by Price Target.
Price Target, a sister publication of EV, archives Wall Street analysts’ research on the electric vehicle, artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors.
Rivian shares rose 2.7% to $13.98 in morning trading in New York on Monday after the note.
The $22 target is 61.6% above Rivian’s closing price of $13.61 on Friday and 57.5% above Monday’s morning price. It is the highest among the eight Rivian notes Price Target has archived since the company reported its third-quarter results on October 29.
Across the 11 firms with a 12-month target on Rivian in the last three months, the median is $18, 32% above Friday’s close, according to Price Target’s Rivian page. Targets range from $10 at Mizuho to $23 at Baird, which reiterated its target on October 5, and seven of the 11 firms rate the stock a ‘Buy,’ two a ‘Hold’ and two a ‘Sell.’
Stifel’s $22 is the second-highest of those targets and 22% above the median.
“We believe RIVN’s 3Q26 results and higher 2026 deliveries guidance support our positive view on the shares. Importantly, R2 order conversion has been stronger-than-expected, and although there are some higher near-term costs associated with ramping production, margins seem to be gaining traction,” Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro wrote.
“In our view, autonomy will increasingly become a key market share driver, and RIVN’s next possible catalyst could be its AI Autonomy Day on December 9,” he added.
What Rivian Reported
Rivian posted revenue above $2 billion for the first time in the third quarter. Revenue rose 38% from a year earlier to $2.155 billion, and deliveries rose 46% to 19,248 in the R2’s first full quarter on sale.
Rivian said the R2 was already its best-selling vehicle by volume in the quarter, outselling both the R1 and its electric delivery van.
Its gross margin narrowed to 8% from 11% in the second quarter, though it was up from 2% a year earlier. The automotive business posted a gross loss of $80 million, narrower than $130 million a year earlier, after about $120 million in extra costs tied to the R2 production ramp, while software and services earned a gross profit of $256 million, a 42% margin, the company said.
Rivian raised its 2026 delivery forecast to 67,000 to 70,000 vehicles from 65,000 to 70,000. It improved its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast by $100 million at the midpoint to $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion and cut its capital spending forecast to $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion.
The company will host its second Autonomy & AI Day on Wednesday, December 9, which it moved from San Francisco to its Palo Alto office, according to an updated invitation.
Rivian said a limited rollout of its Point to Point driving feature is expected to begin later this year through an invitation-only Autonomy Early Access Program, with a general release to all Autonomy+ subscribers expected in 2027.
Gengaro’s Target Since 2025
Gengaro has kept a ‘Buy’ rating on Rivian in every note Price Target has archived since February 2025, while moving his target five times.
Stifel initiated coverage of Rivian in December 2023 with a ‘Buy’ rating and a $23 target, according to reports at the time, and cut the target to $16 from $18 in November 2024 while keeping the rating.
He held a $16 target in February 2025 and again in May 2025, when Rivian cut its 2025 delivery guidance to 40,000 to 46,000 units, a print he called “a mixed bag” while keeping a positive longer-term view. Days later, he raised the target to $18, citing progress toward positive gross profit and the R2 launch, in a move matched by DA Davidson.
In August 2025, he cut it back to $16, pointing to tariffs, the end of the $7,500 U.S. EV tax credit and production downtime ahead of the R2 launch. In July 2025, he previewed second-quarter results for Tesla, Lucid and Rivian.
He raised it to $17 in November 2025 after third-quarter results, seeing 13% potential at the time. In January, he said Rivian’s fourth-quarter deliveries held “no big surprises”, coming in “largely in line” with Stifel’s projections.
In February 2026, he lifted it to $20 after Rivian guided for 62,000 to 67,000 deliveries in 2026, above his own 52,000-unit forecast.
Gengaro reiterated $20 in March, calling Rivian’s new partnership with Uber “a meaningful positive” for its autonomy program and the R2. Uber committed to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian and to buy up to 50,000 fully autonomous R2 vehicles.
The analyst raised the target to $22 in July, updating his model for strong second-quarter deliveries and Rivian’s share offering, as the stock rebounded on two price target raises. He held it in August, after Rivian’s second-quarter adjusted EBITDA loss of $379 million beat his own forecast of $642 million by 41%. Monday’s note is his third at $22.
What Stifel Flagged Before
In August, Gengaro listed four items to watch: the absence of regulatory credit revenue in the second half of 2026 after $164 million in the first half, a third-quarter automotive gross margin headwind ahead of a fourth-quarter benefit, rising input costs and higher autonomy spending.
The third-quarter results bore out part of that. Rivian’s gross margin fell from the second quarter, and its car business still lost money on each vehicle sold.
Monday’s note acknowledged “higher near-term costs associated with ramping production” but said margins “seem to be gaining traction.”
A Divided Street
Other analysts have split on Rivian since its results, according to notes archived by Price Target.
Jefferies analyst Owen Paterson upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ with a $17 target on October 30, and UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded it to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’, also with a $17 target, on November 2, calling the stock’s recent slide a buying opportunity.
Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally kept an ‘Outperform’ rating and $18 target, while Needham analyst Chris Pierce cut his target to $18 from $23 with a ‘Buy’ rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard lowered his target to $16 from $19 with a ‘Neutral’ rating. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas cut his to $13 from $14, keeping an ‘Underweight’ rating, and Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered his to $10 from $13 with an ‘Underperform’ rating.
Rivian shares closed at $11.67 on October 28, the day before the results, down 40.8% from $19.71 at the end of 2025.
They have since rebounded 16.6% to $13.61 at Friday’s close, and Monday’s gain took the rebound to about 19.7%. Even at $22, Stifel’s target sits below the stock’s 52-week high of $22.69.
