JPMorgan cut its price targets on XPeng and Nio again, less than two months after downgrading both US-listed Chinese automakers, leaving the bank with the lowest targets on either stock among Wall Street analysts.
Analyst Nick Lai lowered his XPeng target to $10 from $11.50 and his Nio target to $3.70 from $4.50, keeping ‘Neutral’ ratings on both, according to notes archived by Price Target, EV‘s sister publication that archives Wall Street research word for word.
The XPeng cut is 13% and the Nio cut is 18%.
The new targets sit just above where the shares trade. XPeng’s American depositary shares closed at $9.21 on Friday, so the $10 target implies about 8.6% upside. Nio closed at $3.29, about 12.5% below the new target.
Both stocks were little changed in premarket trading on Monday. Nio stood at $3.30 and XPeng at $9.16.
The two are trading close to their 52-week lows of $3.24 for Nio and $9.01 for XPeng. Nio hit its low last week, when it fell to its lowest level since April 2025. XPeng posted its lowest close since 2024 earlier this month.
In Hong Kong, where neither JPMorgan note applies, XPeng’s shares closed 3.8% lower at HK$35.70 ($4.55) on Monday and Nio’s fell 2.2% to HK$25.74 ($3.28).
The lowest on the Street
Before Monday, the five analysts who had set a US target on Nio in the past three months ranged from $4 to $7.10, according to Price Target. JPMorgan’s $3.70 is now below the bottom of that range.
On XPeng, JPMorgan already held the lowest US target. Its $11.50 call from September 29 sat at the bottom of a range that ran to $22, with a median of $16 across seven analysts.
The new Nio target matches the one CLSA set in Hong Kong on Friday. Analyst Ding Luo cut his Nio target to HK$29 from HK$55 (note), equal to about $3.70 per share at Monday’s exchange rate, while keeping an ‘Outperform’ rating.
Luo also cut XPeng’s Hong Kong target to HK$44 from HK$80. Each XPeng ADS represents two Hong Kong shares, so that target works out to about $11.20 per ADS, above JPMorgan’s new $10.
Goldman Sachs is more upbeat. It upgraded Nio to ‘Buy’ with a $7 target on October 9 and cut its XPeng target to $16 from $18 on Friday, keeping a ‘Buy’ rating.
From ‘Overweight’ to ‘Neutral’ in a month
Monday’s notes extend a fast retreat. Lai downgraded Nio to ‘Neutral’ on September 1, cutting the target to $4.50 from $7. He downgraded XPeng four weeks later, slashing its target to $11.50 from $24.
In the Nio downgrade, JPMorgan pointed to sluggish passenger-car demand in China, price competition and limited overseas exposure, according to Investing.com. The bank expected cost pressure from batteries, memory chips and other materials in the second half, which it said may be hard to pass on to buyers.
JPMorgan also expected China’s passenger-car demand to be flat to down 5% in 2027, Investing.com reported. It forecast Nio deliveries of 430,000 this year and 480,000 next year.
The bank cut its adjusted forecasts to a net loss of 2.34 billion yuan ($351 million) for 2026 and 975 million yuan ($146 million) for 2027. It had previously expected a 512 million yuan ($77 million) loss this year and a 2.52 billion yuan ($378 million) profit in 2027.
In the XPeng downgrade, Lai cited weak domestic demand, higher input costs, policy uncertainty and tariffs on Chinese automakers, according to Markets Insider.
XPeng’s target plunges
The cuts leave XPeng’s target 80% below the $50 that Lai set in November 2025, after XPeng’s AI Day pledge to deploy three robotaxi models in 2026.
Since then, the target has fallen to $34 in February (note), $30 in May (note), $24 in August, $11.50 in September and now $10.
Nio’s target is 54% below the $8 Lai set when he upgraded the stock to ‘Overweight’ in August 2025 (note). It was trimmed to $7 in February before the September downgrade.
JPMorgan’s history with both stocks goes back to far higher levels. In March 2022, the bank cut Nio’s target to $30 from $60 and XPeng’s to $42 from $58.
Price Target tracks how often each firm’s targets are reached within 12 months. JPMorgan hit 56% of its 16 targets that are at least a year old, ranking 26th of the 28 firms tracked.
Steep Q4 Targets
Both companies met their third-quarter delivery guidance but face demanding targets for the rest of the year.
XPeng delivered a record 118,390 vehicles in the third quarter, within its guidance of 115,000 to 121,000. Deliveries in the first nine months were still down 9.2% from a year earlier.
Founder and CEO He Xiaopeng targeted more than 60,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, against a 2026 high of 41,256 in September. Even that pace would leave XPeng short of its 550,000 to 600,000 full-year target.
Nio Inc. delivered 109,178 vehicles in the third quarter, up 25.4% from a year earlier and within its guidance of 108,000 to 111,000.
Reaching the 40% growth Founder and CEO William Li has set for 2026 would require about 52,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, more than in any single month to date.
JPMorgan’s 430,000 forecast for this year, made in September, implies growth of about 32%.
Both companies are expected to report third-quarter results in November.
