CLSA has cut its price targets on XPeng and Nio by almost half while keeping ‘Outperform’ ratings on both Chinese carmakers, according to analyst notes sent to clients on Friday.
Analyst Ding Luo slashed the target on XPeng’s Hong Kong shares by 45% to HK$44 from HK$80, and on Nio’s Hong Kong shares to HK$29 from HK$55, a 47% reduction.
Both stocks are rated ‘Outperform’, the second-highest of CLSA’s five categories. The price target cuts leave much less upside than before.
Separately, the analyst cut Li Auto’s target to HK$55 from HK$68 and BYD to HK$104 from HK$120.
XPeng’s Hong Kong shares closed up 5.1% at HK$37.12 on Friday, so the new target implies about 18.5% upside. The old HK$80 target was more than double the closing price.
Nio’s Hong Kong shares closed up 4.1% at HK$26.32, leaving about 10.2% upside to the new HK$29 target, against more than 100% under the previous one.
In New York, XPeng’s American depositary shares were up 1.9% at $9.24 in early trading, and Nio’s were up 0.9% at $3.34.
Each XPeng ADS represents two Hong Kong shares, so the HK$44 target equals about $11.20 per ADS at Friday’s exchange rate.
Below the ‘Neutral’ Calls
CLSA’s new targets are now the lowest Hong Kong targets for either company among the notes logged by Price Target since August, even though the broker still recommends both stocks.
For XPeng, JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘Neutral’ with a HK$45 target on September 30, and UBS started coverage at ‘Neutral’ with HK$47 in September.
Morgan Stanley cut its XPeng target to HK$70 in September, and Citi lowered its target to HK$83.60 in August.
Goldman Sachs cut its US target on XPeng to $16 from $18 on Friday, keeping a ‘Buy’ rating.
For Nio, UBS started coverage at ‘Buy’ with a HK$43 target in September. Goldman Sachs lowered its Hong Kong target to HK$48 in early September and then upgraded the stock to ‘Buy’ with a $7 US target on October 9.
Macquarie cut its Nio target to HK$45 in September, while Morgan Stanley raised its target to HK$68.50 the same month.
CLSA’s Path on Both Stocks
The XPeng target has now fallen 58% this year.
Luo cut it to HK$77 from HK$106 on February 16, when the shares traded around HK$69, then raised it to HK$80 on March 23, when they were near HK$71.6, according to the implied upside logged with each note.
On Nio, Luo started coverage at ‘Outperform’ with a HK$55 target on May 27, when the implied upside of 29.8% put the shares at about HK$42.4.
Friday’s cuts are the first CLSA changes on either stock logged since then, and the first CLSA notes on Chinese EV makers since the broker cut its BYD target in March.
The Volume Backdrop
Both companies met their third-quarter delivery guidance, but both face steep fourth-quarter targets.
XPeng delivered 118,390 vehicles in the third quarter, a company record and within its guidance of 115,000 to 121,000. Its deliveries in the first nine months of the year were still down 9.2% from a year earlier.
Founder and CEO He Xiaopeng targeted monthly deliveries of more than 60,000 in the fourth quarter on the company’s August earnings call, against a 2026 high of 41,256 in September.
Even that pace would leave XPeng well short of the bottom of its 550,000 to 600,000 full-year target, which would require about 88,500 deliveries a month.
Nio Inc. delivered 109,178 vehicles in the third quarter, within its guidance of 108,000 to 111,000 and up 25.4% from a year earlier.
To reach the 40% growth Founder and CEO William Li has set for 2026, the group would need about 52,000 deliveries a month in the fourth quarter, more than in any single month to date.
The cuts landed on a busy news day for both companies. Nio delivered the 160,000th unit of its ES8 SUV, its slowest 10,000-unit stretch since the model’s first, while its Firefly brand launched a larger 60 kWh battery in China.
XPeng’s He said on Friday that the first flying car from affiliate Aridge handed to the United Arab Emirates would “soon” begin test flights there, though Aridge’s finance chief has pointed to early 2027.
Shares Near Their Lows
XPeng’s US shares have fallen 54.4% this year and are close to their 52-week low of $9.01, against a high of $28.24.
Nio’s US shares are down 34.5% this year, and their 52-week low of $3.24 came within the past week, when the stock hit its lowest level since April 2025.
Both companies are due to report third-quarter results in November.
