Macquarie on Tuesday raised its price target on Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares to HK$55.00 from HK$51.00, maintaining an Outperform rating — the latest in a series of bullish updates from the Australian investment bank ahead of the EV maker’s Q1 2026 earnings release.
The Shanghai-headquartered company founded and led by William Li will report its first quarter results on Thursday, less than a week before the official launch of its new flagship ES9 SUV scheduled for May 27.
The HK$4 incremental bump from Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao continues the positive stance the broker took in its January upgrade and represents one of the most consistent bullish positions on Nio among major international banks.
The Macquarie HK$55 price targets imply approximately 21.5% upside from current Hong Kong levels and from Tuesday’s HK$45.28 close.
Over the last two years, Hsiao swung twice between Outperform and Neutral ratings.
Macquarie’s Two-Year Nio Coverage
The Australian investment bank reinstated coverage of Nio in April 2024 with a Neutral rating and a $5.00 price target on the US-listed shares.
Hsiao upgraded the stock to Outperform on October 28, 2024 with a raised price target of $6.60 (and the Hong Kong target lifted to around HK$65), citing Onvo L60 order momentum and expected Q4 2024 acceleration.
Less than a month later, on November 20, 2024, Hsiao reversed course following Nio’s Q3 2024 results — downgrading the stock back to Neutral, cutting the price target by 27% to $4.80 and the Hong Kong-listed target by 41% to HK$38.
In the November 2024 downgrade note, Hsiao wrote: “We think it’s too early to determine whether Nio brand cannibalization risks are material or if Onvo demand will meet initial expectations.”
The bearish stance held through early 2025.
On February 10, 2025, Hsiao cut the Hong Kong-listed price target further from HK$38 to HK$34, citing the impact of subsidy phase-outs and Onvo order softness.
“While the Firefly launch in 1H25 presents upside potential, the weaker-than-expected demand for core Nio products and subsidy-related headwinds prompted an 18% miss in 4Q revenue guidance midpoint versus consensus,” Hsiao wrote.
A minor adjustment in March 2025 tweaked the Hong Kong price target back to HK$36 ahead of Nio‘s nine-model launch cadence.
On June 4, 2025, following Q1 2025 results, Hsiao cut the price target from $4.70 to $3.90 while maintaining Neutral — citing “unabated cash burn,” a sharp drop in cash balance, gross margin miss, and slow Onvo ramp.
“We maintain Neutral,” Hsiao wrote at the time. “While Nio remains committed to its 4Q25 breakeven target via a major organisational restructuring and plans to tighten R&D spending, concerns over liquidity, margins, and Onvo’s ramp persist.”
The September 2025 Pivot
Macquarie reversed its bearish stance on September 3, 2025, following Nio’s Q2 2025 results — raising the Hong Kong-listed price target from HK$44 to HK$53 and upgrading the rating back to Outperform.
The bullish call was short-lived. On November 25-26, 2025, Hsiao downgraded Nio back to Neutral following Q3 2025 results, cutting the US ADR price target from $6.70 to $5.30 (-21%) and the Hong Kong target from HK$53 to HK$41 (-23%).
“Weak Q4 vol. guidance of 122.5k at the midpoint below prev. guidance of 150k partly due to impact from phase out of govt. subsidies on Onvo demand,” Hsiao wrote.
“We cut our HK/US TPs by 23%/21% on slower FY26 market demand and apply a peer average 0.8x FY26E P/S. Downgrade to Neutral.”
The Current Bullish Cycle
Hsiao upgraded Nio back to Outperform in mid January — the start of the current bullish coverage cycle — raising the US ADR price target by 15% to $6.10.
The upgrade was driven by Nio’s Q4 2025 deliveries reaching the high-end of the 125,000-unit guidance range, with strong ES8 and Firefly demand driving 44% quarter-on-quarter volume growth.
“4Q25 sales reached the high-end of 125k guidance as strong ES8 and Firefly demand drove 44% QoQ volume growth,” Hsiao wrote.
The Macquarie analyst lifted his FY26 volume forecast by 7% to 451,000 vehicles — implying approximately 38% growth from 2025 levels — and identified rising Battery as a Service (BaaS) adoption above 80% as a key structural insulator against industry headwinds.
“Rising use of BaaS (>80%) could better insulate the company from industry headwinds as potential higher battery costs are held off balance sheet,” Hsiao wrote.
The January upgrade was editorially distinctive because Hsiao simultaneously cut price targets on Nio’s Chinese EV rivals: Li Auto from $17 to $15 (citing big cash discounts on extended-range EVs slowing topline momentum), and XPeng from $32 to $26 (calling 2026 a “transition year” for the company).
The March 2026 Price Target Raise
Following Nio’s full-year 2025 and Q4 2025 results, Hsiao maintained Outperform and raised the US ADR price target on March 11 from $6.10 to $6.50.
The note cited Nio’s vehicle gross margin improvement to 18.1% from 13.1% year-on-year (helped by the third-generation ES8), “other sales” margin jump to 11.9%, R&D tightening, and positive operating cash flow that reduces future capital-raise needs.
Macquarie applied a higher 0.9x FY26 price-to-sales multiple — in line with EV sector peers — up from the 0.8x multiple used in the November 2025 downgrade.
Hsiao trimmed his 2026 volume estimate by 8% (to approximately 415,000 vehicles), citing weak Q1 2026 demand and limited visibility from increased competition in the EV SUV segment from Li Auto, XPeng, Xiaomi, and Seres.
The Macquarie analyst narrowed his FY26 net loss estimate to 1.8 billion yuan from 4.5 billion yuan — one of the more bullish margin forecasts on the Street.
The March note identified continued ES8 backlog conversion, better-than-expected Q1 2026 margins, and strong pre-orders for the upcoming ES9 and Onvo L80 as potential catalysts.
The new Incremental HK PT Bump
Tuesday’s note continues Macquarie’s positive incremental positioning on Nio’s Hong Kong-listed shares — moving the price target from HK$51.00 to HK$55.00 with Outperform maintained.
The HK$4 increase represents an approximately 7.8% lift from the prior level and signals continued conviction from Hsiao ahead of the May 27 ES9 official launch and the May 21 Q1 2026 earnings release.
The company began on Monday offering zero-interest financing on the ES9 to stimulate early demand ahead of the launch.
The note arrives during a period of broader Chinese EV stock weakness — with Li Auto shares plunging 14.15% in Hong Kong on Monday following the L9 Livis launch disappointment, and XPeng shares hitting a 15-month low on Monday at $14.91.
The Q1 2026 Earnings Setup
Nio’s Q1 2026 results, scheduled for release before the US market opens on Thursday, May 21, will provide the next material test of Macquarie’s bullish thesis.
The Shanghai-based EV maker delivered 83,465 vehicles in Q1 2026 — a 98.3% year-on-year increase that exceeded the company’s previous guidance of 80,000 to 83,000 units.
The third-generation ES8 reached 100,000 deliveries in just 215 days, a record in China’s premium vehicle segment priced above 400,000 yuan. The model accounted for more than 54% of Nio’s total deliveries in Q1 2026.
Q1 2026 revenue is guided at 24.48 billion to 25.17 billion yuan, with analyst consensus pegging revenue at approximately $3.55 billion — implying 114% year-on-year growth.
Wall Street consensus expects a loss of $0.24 per share, improved from the loss of $0.45 reported in Q1 2025.
The company is targeting full-year 2026 non-GAAP profitability — a goal that Chief Executive Officer William Li reaffirmed in recent communications.
The April 2026 Delivery Slowdown
Nio’s April 2026 deliveries showed a meaningful deceleration from the Q1 2026 pace.
The company delivered 29,356 vehicles in April 2026, a 22.8% year-on-year increase but a 17.3% decline from March 2026’s 35,486 units.
The Nio premium brand accounted for 19,024 of April’s deliveries, Onvo contributed 5,352 units, and Firefly added 4,980 vehicles.
The April figures compare against weakness across the broader Chinese EV sector: BYD posted its eighth consecutive month of year-on-year declines (-15.5%), XPeng was down 11.5% year-on-year, and Li Auto was essentially flat.
Year-to-date through April, Nio has delivered 112,821 vehicles, a 71% increase versus the same period in 2025.
The EU Expansion Context
Nio said earlier this week that test drive interest in its Hungarian lineup was “outstanding” at the Ayvens Fleet Conference & Auto Expo at the Balaton Park Circuit — with all available test drive slots fully booked in advance.
Founder and Chief Executive Officer William Li has confirmed Nio’s plan to be available across 40 countries and regions by year-end 2026.
Nio’s battery swap network — a key element of Macquarie’s structural moat thesis — comprises approximately 3,800 swap stations and over 28,000 charging points across China and Europe.
The company plans to add approximately 1,000 new battery swap stations in 2026 — though European expansion has slowed amid broader capital discipline measures.
