Cantor Fitzgerald reacted early Wednesday to the second-quarter earnings results of EV maker Lucid Motors, maintaining its price target on the stock despite being “discouraged in the near-term” by the company’s 2025 production guidance cut and persistent high negative gross margins.
In a new research note, analyst Andres Sheppard said the firm is reducing annual delivery estimates by 350 units to 16,650 vehicles, of which 10,586 are expected to be Lucid Air sedans and 6,064 Gravity units.
Production-wise, and as Lucid trimmed its annual guidance from 20,000 units to a range of 18,000–20,000, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its estimate to 18,500 (from prior 20,000) to reflect updated company guidance.
“As it continues to ramp up, we expect the Gravity will help materially boost customer demand,” the analyst wrote, while recalling that Lucid’s management expects the Gravity to have about six times the TAM of its debut model, the Air Sedan.
For 2026, Cantor expects Gravity deliveries to rise nearly 70% and surpass 10,000 units.
The premium brand does not disclose how many units it sold per model nor how many orders it secured, but the interim chief said on Tuesday’s call that the brand is supply constrained for the Gravity and not demand constrained.
“On the call, LCID disclosed that Gravity daily orders have ‘nearly doubled’ […],” the analyst wrote, referring to the interim CEO announcement on the surge in orders since display and test drive vehicles arrived in showrooms.
Sheppard wrote that in Cantor’s estimates, the firm “continues to model 6,064 Lucid Gravity deliveries in FY25 and 10,248 in FY26.”
Marc Winterhoff, the interim CEO of EV maker Lucid, said during Tuesday’s second-quarter earnings call that Motor Intelligence’s claim of zero Gravity vehicles delivered in July is “totally false.”
Cantor sees the launch of the midsize platform in late 2026 — which will underpin three models — as “a material catalyst that should help the company scale and improve margins further.”
Commenting on the Lucid-Uber-Nuro deal announced in mid-July, the analyst said Cantor is “encouraged by the company’s plan to enter the robotaxi market in late 2026 via Uber, which we also see as a material catalyst.”
Cantor kept its ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock and a $3.00 price target. Based on the current trading price of $2.24, the target implies an upside potential of 33.9%.
“In our model, we are lowering our FY25 production estimate to 18,500 (from prior 20,000) to reflect updated company guidance,” the analyst noted. “We are also lowering our FY25 delivery estimate to 16,650 (from 17,000 prior) to remain conservative.”
“This results in a decrease of FY25 revenue to ~$1.41B (from ~$1.43B prior),” the analyst added. “Finally, we are lowering our FY25 capex estimate to ~$1.15B (from prior ~$1.43B) to reflect updated guidance.”
Year to date, Lucid shares have fallen nearly 20%.
