Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh released on Wednesday a new research note lowering the firm’s price targets on four carmakers including Tesla, Nio, Rivian and GM.
One day after Tesla shares closed up 22.69%, the second-best single-day percentage gain in Tesla stock’s 15-year history after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the recently announced tariffs, Mizuho reduced its price target to $375.00 from $430.00.
Despite the reduction, the new price target still implies an upside potential of 37.8% based on Wednesday’s closing price. The firm maintained its Outperform rating on the stock.
Rakesh said the firm cut its annual vehicle deliveries estimates to 1.66 million units from 1.82 million. In 2024, sold 1,789,226 vehicles globally.
“We are lowering our 1Q25E rev/EPS [revenue/ earnings per share] estimates from $22.30B/$0.57 to $20.53B/$0.51 (Cons. $21.92B/$0.44), F25E from $108.03B/$2.89 to $101.03B/$2.60 (Cons. $108.34B/$2.67) with deliveries from 1.82M units to 1.66M units (Cons. 1.84M),” he wrote.
For 2026 and 2027, Mizuho lowered its estimates by 300,000 and 400,000 units, respectively.
“F26E from $134.25B/$3.87 to $124.33B/$3.60 (Cons. $130.88B/$3.68) with deliveries from 2.30M units to 2.00M units (Cons. 2.18M), and F27E from $159.98B/$4.99 to $149.81B/$4.70 (Cons. $156.09B/$4.83) with deliveries from 2.73M units to 2.43M (Cons. 2.50M),” Rakesh wrote.
The analyst flagged “potential share headwinds in the EU/China as competitors ramp production” while in the United States the firm sees the Elon Musk-led company as the leader in the EV market.
“We reiterate our Outperform on TSLA but lower our PT to $375 (prior: $430), given shares are currently down ~52% vs. their 52-week high, implying a ~10.6x F26E P/S as we see TSLA remaining the leader in the US EV market, though we note potential share headwinds in the EU/China as competitors ramp production,” he concluded.
Switching to the Shanghai-based EV maker Nio, Mizuho analyst reduced the price target to $3.50 from $4.20 on the same week shares hit a new 5-year low at $3.02. On Wednesday, following Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on most countries’ tariffs, Nio shares rallied 5.4% closing at $3.31.
Speaking with Fox Business, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said on Wednesday “Everything is on the table” when asked if a delisting of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks could be considered by the U.S. administration.
“Well, I think everything is on the table,” before detailing upcoming measures on export controls and limits in the Chinese assets that U.S. retail and institutional investors “should not be investing.”
Mizuho maintained a Neutral rating on the Nio shares. Separately, Trump announced on Wednesday it is again raising China tariffs from 104% to 125% effective immediately, a few hours after China’s finance minister said that Beijing would match Trump’s previous 50% tariff hike by increasing duties on US imports from 34% to 84%, effective Thursday, April 10.
Rakesh also slightly reduced the price target on the U.S. EV maker Rivian by $1 to $10.00. Rivian shares soared on Wednesday afternoon and closed 9% higher at $11.77. The analyst reaffirmed the Neutral rating on Rivian stock.
Mizuho reduced the price target on the Detroit carmaker General Motors to $55.00 (from $63.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating. GM shares
