Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu has released a new research note on Tesla, where he said the firm now expects the Elon Musk-led company to post ‘roughly flat’ Q3 EV deliveries.
Sequentially, the figures are forecasted to jump 20% to 461,000 units.
With the stock jumping over 20% in the past 30 days, the bank has raised the EV maker’s price target from $345 to $435 — which implies a 2.7% upside potential, based on Thursday’s close at $423.39.
“Ahead of third quarter deliveries next week, we raise our near-term estimates given stronger volume in the quarter,” Yu wrote, adding, however, that the bank maintains its “full-year and 2026 outlook mostly unchanged.”
Deutsche Bank expects Tesla‘s third quarter deliveries to track meaningfully ahead” of Wall Street consensus expectations of 433,000 units.
“Supported by the launch of Model Y L in China and US pre-buy effect ahead of EV incentives going away,” the bank estimates that the company will report 461,000 vehicles delivered from July through September.
The figures would be “roughly flat” compared to the third quarter of 2024, however would be up 20% from the second quarter — when Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles.
Germany’s largest bank expects Tesla volumes to grow 20% in both China and North America, despite “some decline in Europe as competition and branding continues to weigh in on demand.”
Edison Yu noted that, from the beginning of the quarter until the third week of September, registration data in China has been around 141,000 units, nearly reaching its 159,000-unit estimates for the quarter.
From September 15 to 21, Tesla set its weekly sales record of the quarter in China for the third consecutive week, with 17,300 vehicles.
The US brand registered 17,300 vehicles across China in the third week of September. From January 1 to August 31, Tesla has sold 361,179 units there.
The analyst considered that while “US sales will likely dip materially in the fourth quarter after the incentives are eliminated,” the impact could be “partially offset by a strong quarter in China.”
Deutsche Bank estimated that fourth quarter figures will be “somewhere between” the second quarter — in which Tesla sold around 384,000 units — and the third quarter — for which the bank estimates 461,000 vehicles.
Yu models 409,000 units, just below the consensus of 1.6 million vehicles delivered in 2025 — which, according to the analyst, “still appears achievable.”
The analyst has maintained a Buy rating on the stock, noting that “Elon Musk’s clear focus on Tesla‘s most important efforts (robotaxi and Optimus) and the recent compensation package have removed a large overhang on the stock.”
“Going forward, [it] will allow Tesla to benefit from being a leader in embodied AI,” the analyst mentioned.
Margin-wise, Deutsche Bank expects a “decline by 100bps quarter over quarter due to lower volume and potentially higher tariff costs.”
“All in, this translates to $1.53 in EPS vs. current consensus at $1.74,” Yu concluded.
Earlier on Friday, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives raised Tesla’s price target to $600, a week after Baird lifted its target to $548.
As of press time, Tesla is currently trading nearly 1% higher at $426 on Friday’s market session.
