Barclays said on Monday it expects Tesla‘s third quarter EV deliveries to be both up sequentially and year over year, as demand surges in anticipation of the EV tax credit deadline on September 30.
In a new research note published on Monday — and obtained by PriceTarget — analyst Dan Levy wrote that, “based on reported July/August data and early September reads,” Tesla is expected to deliver 465,000 units, “well above consensus of 430,000” units.
Between July an September of 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles, meaning that Barclays’ estimates represent a 0.5% growth year over year, while the Wall Street expects a 7.1% decline in deliveries.
In the second quarter, the brand delivered 384,122 vehicles globally.
Wall Street expects deliveries to rise this quarter, with the consensus forecasting an 11.9% increase.
Barclays, however, estimates deliveries at 465,000 units, which would mean a much stronger 21% quarter-over-quarter increase.
“We believe that investor expectations are more in this range given strong data points thus far in the quarter,” Levy stated, with “expectations for strong US sales amid the forthcoming expiration of the US EV tax credit.”
Motor intelligence estimates that Tesla reached a new monthly record year to date in August, with 55,500 vehicles registered — a modest 4.4% rise from the same period last year.
The figures suggest a 3.1% sales increase from July’s 53,816 units, when Tesla posted its first year over year monthly gain since the start of 2025.
Barclays expects Tesla‘s inventory to be down by 20,000 quarter over quarter, decreasing its inventory to the 110,000 to 120,000 unit range.
The analyst warned, however, that “while the 3Q beat will be appreciated, we believe investors may also look to the weaker expected volume outlook for 4Q and beyond.”
This is expected “especially in the US, where EV demand will see a significant decline after the expiration of the EV tax credit.”
Although Tesla has seen sales rise in its domestic market over the past two months, its performance in Europe has weakened compared to a year ago.
In August, the company sold 13,162 vehicles across its European markets, a drop of 19.8% compared to the 16,413 units registered in August 2024.
Several factors are driving this decline: growing competition from Chinese automakers entering the region, the launch of the refreshed Model Y that temporarily slowed sales earlier in the year, and backlash against Elon Musk’s political activities, which led some customers to boycott the brand.
Last Friday, Tesla Board of Directors’ Chair Robyn Denholm said Elon Musk has returned to being “front and center at the company,” after winding down his role as a US government adviser earlier this year.
Denholm rejected suggestions that the CEO’s political activity has affected demand for Tesla vehicles, insisting that Musk remains the right leader to guide the company.
Barclays’ analyst also noted that “Tesla narrative has increasingly turned to AV/Robotaxi, as seen in the milestones of Elon’s 2025 pay package, and it remains unclear what attention will be paid to Tesla‘s near term vehicle volume.”
The pay package plan is tied to a market capitalization of nearly $7.5 trillion and large-scale deployment of next-generation products, including 1 million Robotaxis in operation and 1 million humanoid AI Bots delivered.
Barclays had reacted to the plan, mentioning that its milestones are “very challenging to hit” and “reinforce future growth outside auto.”
The firm reiterated a $275 price target on Tesla, which implies a 30.5% downside on the shares value, considering Friday’s close at $395.94. Dan Levy reiterated an Equalweight rating on the stock.
